# Probability could this theory be exact>?

• eljose79
In summary, probability cannot give exact results or guarantee a fixed point in a probability function. Even with a large number of trials, there will always be some level of uncertainty in the outcome. However, the larger the number of trials, the higher the confidence factor in predicting future outcomes. This means that while we can make educated guesses based on probability, we can never be certain of the exact result.

#### eljose79

Probability...could this theory be exact>?...

In fact let,s suppose we throw a dice...N times (with N tends to infinity)..then coul be a fixed point in the probability function..in this sense..for example after throwing dice N times (with big N we would always have the same number ,for example you throw the dice and after N times of throwing it you get the same number...is that possible?...can probability give exact results (or at least with little error) in measuring things?

No. Probablity is probability.

I had a lot of trouble understanding what you were saying. Let me know if I am assuming wrongly. I am assuming this is what you meant:

Roll a die (I assume six-sided) N times. N is very large, approaching infinity if you wish. The same result comes up every time, assume that result is 3 for argument's sake. Does this mean that for a large enough N that we can say that 3 will always be the result?

Not quite. We can take the data - a large number of 3's and nothing else - and assign a confidence factor to a range of probabilities that the next result will be a 3. For 100%, the confidence is zero. If we include a range of probabilities, extending a tiny bit below 100%, the confidence increases. For an arbitrarily large N, we can have an arbitrarily small range of probabilities, from 99.99...9% to 100% and an arbitrarily high confidence. The larger N is, the higher the confidence factor is. It would be foolish to say there is only a 1/6 chance for a 3 to result. The data is evidence that the die is probably not true.

If you did not know what a coin was, and someone reported to you the results of a million coin flips as 499678 heads and 500322 tails, you could assign probability ranges to heads and tails, and quote confidence factors for those ranges. This will not rule out something other than heads or tails coming up. Remember, you don't know a coin has only 2 sides.

Njorl

## 1. What is probability and how is it related to scientific theory?

Probability is a measure of the likelihood or chance that an event will occur. It is closely related to scientific theory because it helps us make predictions about the outcome of experiments or events based on collected data and previous knowledge.

## 2. How do scientists determine the probability of a theory being exact?

Scientists use mathematical models and statistical analysis to determine the probability of a theory being exact. This involves collecting data, analyzing patterns, and making predictions based on the data.

## 3. Can probability accurately predict the outcome of experiments?

While probability can provide a close estimate, it cannot accurately predict the exact outcome of experiments. However, it can help identify patterns and trends that may lead to a more accurate prediction.

## 4. Is there a way to increase the probability of a theory being exact?

There are several ways to increase the probability of a theory being exact. These include conducting multiple experiments to gather more data, using more advanced statistical methods, and refining the theory based on new evidence.

## 5. How does probability play a role in the scientific method?

Probability is an important element of the scientific method as it helps scientists make logical and evidence-based conclusions. It is used to analyze data, make predictions, and test hypotheses, ultimately leading to the development and refinement of scientific theories.