What is the Probability of Selecting Someone Born on My Birthday?

In summary, the conversation discusses the probability of at least one person being born on the speaker's birthday when four people are randomly selected. The speaker initially considers the formula 1-(1/365)^4, but is unsure if it is correct. They also mention another formula, (1/365)^4, for the probability of one person being born on their birthday. The other person clarifies that the probability of at least one person being born on the speaker's birthday is 1- (364/365)^4, which is approximately 0.02. The speaker expresses gratitude for the explanation.
  • #1
jimmyjamz
2
0
I have a question regarding a probability question. If four people are randomly selected what is the probability that at least one is born on my birthday. This would make me think that I want to do the formula of

1 - (1/365)^4 which comes out to be
1 - .000000000005636405776 = .999999999 which just doesn't seem right to me.

I also have to do what is the probability that one is born on my birthday which makes me think that I want to do (1/365)^4

Am I anywhere near the right path?
 
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  • #2
(1/365)4 is the probability that all 4 were born on your birthday. 1- (1/365)4 is the probability that at least one was NOT born on your birthday.

The probability that a given person was NOT born on your birth day is 364/365 (disregarding leap year). The probability that out of four people NONE of them was born on your birthday is (364/365)4 so the probability that at least one was born on your birthday is 1- (365/365)4. That's about 0.02.
 
  • #3
Thank you very much. That explanation cleared things up tremendously. It's an extremely easy concept but for some reason I'm having issues grasping it. Thanks again!
 

1. What is the probability of age selection?

The probability of age selection refers to the likelihood that an individual of a certain age will be chosen or selected for a specific task or role. This probability is typically determined by factors such as the individual's skills, experience, and other relevant characteristics.

2. How is the probability of age selection calculated?

The calculation of the probability of age selection can vary depending on the specific context and factors involved. However, it generally involves assessing the frequency or likelihood of individuals of a certain age being chosen for a task compared to individuals of other ages.

3. Can the probability of age selection change over time?

Yes, the probability of age selection can change over time due to various factors such as shifts in societal norms, changes in job requirements, and advancements in technology. For example, in a rapidly evolving industry, younger individuals may have a higher probability of age selection due to their familiarity with new technologies.

4. Are there any ethical concerns related to the probability of age selection?

Yes, there can be ethical concerns related to the probability of age selection, particularly if age is used as the sole determining factor for selection. This can potentially lead to discrimination against older individuals and limit opportunities for them based on their age alone.

5. How can the probability of age selection be improved?

Improving the probability of age selection may involve implementing policies and practices that promote diversity and inclusivity in the selection process. This can include considering a range of factors beyond age, such as skills, experience, and potential, and providing equal opportunities for individuals of all ages to showcase their abilities.

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