Probability of passing a disease down to a child or a group of siblings?

[badr]

TL;DR Summary

Let's say 6 %

Hello.

So I got a question about heredity .

Let's say the probability of inheriting schizophrenia is 6 % if one parent is affected.

So i know that for 6 % probability, there is 1.2 kid out of 5 who will inherit that illness .

So is it better not to have kids in this case ?

 

[FactChecker]

TL;DR Summary: Let's say 6 %

Hello.

So I got a question about heredity .

Let's say the probability of inheriting schizophrenia is 6 % if one parent is affected.

So i know that for 6 % probability, there is 1.2 kid out of 5 who will inherit that illness .

1.2 is 24% of 5, not 6%.

So is it better not to have kids in this case ?

This is not a physics or math question.

 

[badr]

1.2 is 24% of 5, not 6%.

This is not a physics or math question.

OK sorry .

So out of 2 kids there's 0.12 % chance of one of them having the condition. I think that's it ?

 

[FactChecker]

OK sorry .

So out of 2 kids there's 0.12 % chance of one of them having the condition. I think that's it ?

Close, but not exact.
Assume that the odds of each child is independent from the other.
Then the probability of neither child being sick is (1-0.06)(1-0.06) = 0.8836
So the probability of at least one child is sick (and maybe both) is 1-0.8836 = 0.1164
That is 11.64%

 

[jedishrfu]

I hope this is purely an academic question as we shouldn't rely on answers from random forums to decide whether we should have kids for fear of passing on some genetic anomaly.

 

[badr]

wrong idea i know

 

[harborsparrow]

Answers here might be restricted because this question raises issues of ethics. But I hope they will not be.

This reminds me of telecom programmers on my team at AT&T 40 years ago who wanted to ignore the fact that an interrupt service routine architecture could miss critical data and lead to a deadlock situation because the timing was unpredictable. They were resisting changing to a polling architecture whose timing would never miss a critical input. "The possibility of deadlock is so remote that we can forget about it" one guy actually said. He was eventually wrestled to the ground, and we did polling.

Whether the risk is 6% or 60% is irrelevant. In the stated scenario, the risk can be 100% avoided by not engendering a child with one's own DNA, and that is the only acceptable answer.

I am a former professor who believes that ethics should also be taught in a STEM curriculum. There were more than one instances in my long career where giving management the easy answer might have advanced me politically--but also could have endangered human life. Remember that the Challenger shuttle crashed from just such a human ethical failure.

 

[Vanadium 50]

that is the only acceptable answer.

I don't believe this is your decision.

 

[FactChecker]

Whether the risk is 6% or 60% is irrelevant. In the stated scenario, the risk can be 100% avoided by not engendering a child with one's own DNA, and that is the only acceptable answer.

This is a horribly inadequate analysis. There are several types of schizophrenia and treatments. Many can lead fulfilling lives. And who knows what treatments may be developed in the future?

I am a former professor who believes that ethics should also be taught in a STEM curriculum.

I hope it is taught with more care than this example.

 

[Vanadium 50]

The Germans used to have a phrase for this - Lebensunwertes Leben or Life Unworthy of Life. In a more modern view, this would probably not be considered an ethical step forward.

 

[berkeman]

There are several types of schizophrenia and treatments. Many can lead fulfilling lives.

Yes. An early diagnosis is important, as well as family support while the patient's medical team titrates their medications (this can take months to a couple of years).

 

[FactChecker]

the patient's medical team titrates their medications (this can take months to a couple of years).

Good point. I have no knowledge of schizophrenia, but in other illnesses the initial medication to get some control can have brutal side-effects. After that, a milder medication for maintenance has to be found. It's not quick or easy.

 

[WWGD]

You may want to read on false positives, false negatives, re Bayesian approach.

 

[statdad]

This is a horribly inadequate analysis. There are several types of schizophrenia and treatments. Many can lead fulfilling lives. And who knows what treatments may be developed in the future?

I hope it is taught with more care than this example.

True -- and I shudder to think what ideas the students of this "professor" receive in class.

 

[Frimus]

The forum Probability etc. discuss Math. This thread slipped to a discussion of ethics. Please go back to math or terminate it.

 

[jedishrfu]

I think the thread has run its course, and it's a good time to close it.

Thank you all for contributing here.

Jedi