Probability Problem: 2 Ticket Draw, What's the Odds?

In summary, the conversation discusses the probability of drawing a bigger number in the second draw from a box containing tickets marked 1 to n. The answer provided is (1-1/n)/2, but there is some confusion about how this was derived. It is pointed out that the answer is incorrect and the correct probability is the same as the probability of drawing a smaller number in the first draw. The formula provided is for sampling with replacement. The conversation also mentions the possibility of drawing without replacement, which would result in a probability of 1/2. There is a request for further explanation on the relationship between the two probabilities.
  • #1
chocok
21
0
A box contains tickets marked 1,2,...,n. Two tickets are drawn at random from the box. What is the probability the second number drawn is bigger than the first number drawn?
The answer shown is (1-1/n)/2. But... how?

Thanks in advance!
 
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  • #2
What happens when n = 2?
 
  • #3
Tide's point is that the "answer shown" is WRONG. It shouldn't take a whole lot of thought to see that the probability that "the second number drawn is bigger than the first number" is exactly the same as the probability that "the first number drawn is bigger than the second number.
 
  • #4
Just out of curiosity, where did you get that formula?
 
  • #5
Sorry to all, forgot to mention that this is "sampling with replacement". So, by using HallsofIvy's hint, I know how to derive it now. Thanks! And just curious, the answer for without replacement is 1/2?

HallsofIvy, can you give more explanation on "the second number drawn is bigger than the first number" is exactly the same as the probability that "the first number drawn is bigger than the second number"? they sound more like compliments to me with one higher and one lower probability...
 
Last edited:

1. What is the probability of winning with 2 ticket draw?

The probability of winning with 2 ticket draw depends on the total number of tickets and the number of winning tickets. For example, if there are 100 tickets and 2 winning tickets, the probability would be 2/100 or 2%. However, if there are 100 tickets and only 1 winning ticket, the probability would be 1/100 or 1%.

2. How does the number of tickets affect the odds of winning in a 2 ticket draw?

The number of tickets directly affects the odds of winning in a 2 ticket draw. The more tickets there are, the lower the odds of winning. For example, if there are 100 tickets and 2 winning tickets, the odds of winning would be 2 in 100 or 1 in 50. But if there are 200 tickets and 2 winning tickets, the odds of winning would be 2 in 200 or 1 in 100.

3. What is the difference between probability and odds?

Probability and odds are two different ways of expressing the likelihood of an event occurring. Probability is the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes. Odds, on the other hand, is the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the number of unfavorable outcomes. For example, if there are 2 winning tickets out of 100 total tickets, the probability of winning would be 2/100 or 2%, while the odds would be 2:98 or 1:49.

4. Can you increase your chances of winning in a 2 ticket draw?

No, the chances of winning in a 2 ticket draw are purely based on probability and cannot be increased. However, you can increase the number of tickets you purchase, which would increase your chances of winning.

5. Is it better to have more tickets or better odds in a 2 ticket draw?

In a 2 ticket draw, it is better to have better odds. This means that if there are a limited number of tickets, it is better to have a higher ratio of winning tickets to total tickets. For example, having 2 winning tickets out of 100 total tickets (odds of 1:50) would be better than having 1 winning ticket out of 100 total tickets (odds of 1:100).

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