- #1
Arnoldjavs3
- 191
- 3
Homework Statement
This isn't a homework question really... it's just something I'm not sure how to tackle.
Say you have a 44% chance of being successful on one try, and then another 44% to succeed on your second try, and then a 36% to succeed on your final try.
If you fail once at any instance, you have to start over again.
E.g.,
Trial 1: Success
Trial 2: Success
Trial 3: Fail -> Repeat until all three trials succeed
I believe this comes to a 7% of succeeding.
How many times will it take to be guaranteed(99% of succeeding all 3 tries)?
Homework Equations
Geometric Distribution(?)
Bayes Theorem(?) I haven't learned about anything relevant to this in school so this is purely new to me.
If someone could guide me to a method that would be ideal for these kind of situations.
The Attempt at a Solution
I believe that it would take around 14 attempts to have one successful attempt at succeeding all three trials..
I think if i were to go through 4 attempts 3 would succeed on passing the first trial, and two would succeed on making the second trial, however, none will succeed on all three trials.
If i am wording this in a confusing manner please let me know.
Edit: After using bayes theorem(i will use 14 attempts here, i think that 6 attempts will succeed on the first trial, 3 will succeed on the second, and 1 will succesfully complete all three trials.)
For the first trial:
14 * .44 - (.56^14) = 6.3 -> round to 6
Second Trial:
6 * .44 - (.56^6) = 2.6 -> round to 3
Third Trial:
3 * .36 - (.56^3) = 0.8 -> round to 1
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