Calculating Probability of Correct Guesses in 3 Married Couples

There are only six possible outcomes, three of which result in three correct guesses. So the probability of guessing all three correctly is 3/6 or 1/2. You can then use this information to find the expected value and variance.
  • #1
Dell
590
0
in a room there are 3 married couples
somebody guesses which of the men are married to which of the women.
X=number of correct guesses.

find E(x), var(x)

i tried the following

X=0 (no correct guesses)
P(X)=2/3*2/3*2/3=8/27

X=1 (one correct guess)
P(X)=2/3*2/3*1/3=4/27

X=2 (two correct guesses)
P(X)=2/3*1/3*1/3=2/27

X=1 (three correct guesses)
P(X)=1/3*1/3*1/3=1/27


BUT the total
P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3) does not come to 1
(8+4+2+1)/27=5/9

where am i going wrong? there are only 3 couples so he could not guess more that 3 correct couples.
the probability of guessing a correct couple is 1 in 3
 
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  • #2
You are assuming the probability of a guess being correct is independent of previous guesses. That's not true. For example, there is no chance at all of getting two guesses correct and the third one wrong.
 

1. What is the probability of correctly guessing the order of a 3-couple marriage?

The probability of correctly guessing the order of a 3-couple marriage is 1/6, or approximately 16.67%. This is because there are 6 possible ways to arrange 3 couples in a row, and only one of those arrangements would be considered a correct guess.

2. Does the gender of the couples affect the probability of a correct guess?

No, the gender of the couples does not affect the probability of a correct guess. As long as there are 3 distinct couples, the probability of a correct guess remains at 1/6.

3. How does the number of couples affect the probability of a correct guess?

The number of couples does not directly affect the probability of a correct guess. However, as the number of couples increases, the number of possible arrangements also increases, making it more difficult to correctly guess the order.

4. Is it possible to increase the chances of a correct guess in a 3-couple marriage?

No, it is not possible to increase the chances of a correct guess in a 3-couple marriage. Each guess still has a 1/6 probability of being correct, regardless of any strategies or techniques used.

5. How does the probability of a correct guess change if one of the couples is divorced?

The probability of a correct guess remains the same even if one of the couples is divorced. As long as there are 3 distinct couples, the probability of a correct guess is still 1/6.

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