Probability Question

  • Thread starter Drakkith
  • Start date
  • #1
Drakkith
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
21,172
5,030
An event has an 8% chance to occur per try. How would I calculate the chance of the event occurring at least once after 3 tries?
 

Answers and Replies

  • #2
jbriggs444
Science Advisor
Homework Helper
9,806
4,414
Is the probability in one trial independent of the actual results in the others?

If so, can you write a formula for the event to not occur at all in three tries?
 
  • #3
PeroK
Science Advisor
Homework Helper
Insights Author
Gold Member
2020 Award
17,152
8,951
An event has an 8% chance to occur per try. How would I calculate the chance of the event occurring at least once after 3 tries?

The chance of it not occurring in 3 tries is $$0.92^3$$
So, you want $$1- 0.92^3$$
 
  • Like
Likes 1 person
  • #4
jtbell
Mentor
15,765
4,011
To gain some insight into this problem, try the following brute-force method. List all the possible outcomes for the set of three tries:

1=no, 2=no, 3=no : probability = 0.92 * 0.92 * 0.92 = …
1=yes, 2=no, 3=no : probability = 0.08 * 0.92 * 0.92 = …
etc.

Enumerate all the outcomes (how many of them are there?), calculate the probability for each one, and add up the ones that meet your criterion.
 
  • Like
Likes 1 person
  • #5
Drakkith
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
21,172
5,030
Awesome. Thanks guys.
 

Related Threads on Probability Question

  • Last Post
Replies
2
Views
776
  • Last Post
Replies
13
Views
710
  • Last Post
Replies
4
Views
2K
  • Last Post
Replies
8
Views
3K
  • Last Post
Replies
2
Views
2K
  • Last Post
Replies
6
Views
2K
  • Last Post
Replies
3
Views
627
  • Last Post
Replies
5
Views
561
  • Last Post
Replies
6
Views
2K
  • Last Post
Replies
2
Views
1K
Top