Probability Question

  • Thread starter Drakkith
  • Start date

Drakkith

Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
2018 Award
20,554
4,267
An event has an 8% chance to occur per try. How would I calculate the chance of the event occurring at least once after 3 tries?
 

jbriggs444

Science Advisor
Homework Helper
7,490
2,555
Is the probability in one trial independent of the actual results in the others?

If so, can you write a formula for the event to not occur at all in three tries?
 

PeroK

Science Advisor
Homework Helper
Insights Author
Gold Member
2018 Award
9,507
3,491
An event has an 8% chance to occur per try. How would I calculate the chance of the event occurring at least once after 3 tries?
The chance of it not occurring in 3 tries is $$0.92^3$$
So, you want $$1- 0.92^3$$
 

jtbell

Mentor
15,331
3,025
To gain some insight into this problem, try the following brute-force method. List all the possible outcomes for the set of three tries:

1=no, 2=no, 3=no : probability = 0.92 * 0.92 * 0.92 = …
1=yes, 2=no, 3=no : probability = 0.08 * 0.92 * 0.92 = …
etc.

Enumerate all the outcomes (how many of them are there?), calculate the probability for each one, and add up the ones that meet your criterion.
 

Drakkith

Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
2018 Award
20,554
4,267
Awesome. Thanks guys.
 

Related Threads for: Probability Question

  • Posted
Replies
2
Views
2K
  • Posted
Replies
5
Views
2K
  • Posted
Replies
2
Views
665
  • Posted
Replies
4
Views
1K
  • Posted
Replies
8
Views
2K

Physics Forums Values

We Value Quality
• Topics based on mainstream science
• Proper English grammar and spelling
We Value Civility
• Positive and compassionate attitudes
• Patience while debating
We Value Productivity
• Disciplined to remain on-topic
• Recognition of own weaknesses
• Solo and co-op problem solving

Hot Threads

Top