Real Election Reform: Every Vote Counts

[russ_watters]

On the other hand exit polls have historically been accurate.

Stated as a fact by you, but it quite simply isn't true. Exit polls - raw exit polls - are not very accurate and have to be corrected for demographics (just like ordinary polls) after the fact in order to make them more accurate. In addition, the accuracy has decreased lately for several reasons, including demographics participation rates. These specifically benefit democrats.

In short, Mitofsky and Lenski [the owners of the company who run the exit polls] have reported Democratic overstatements to some degree in every election since 1990.

[from their report]

Exit polling is extremely valuable as a source of post-election information about the electorate. But it has lost much of the value it had for projecting election results in close elections...[Their recommendation to CNN:]

The exit poll is a blunt instrument," and Lenski to add, "the polls are getting less accurate"

"Cease the use of exit polling to project or call winners of states. The 2000 election demonstrates the faults and dangers in exit polling. Even if exit polling is made more accurate, it will never be as accurate as a properly conducted actual vote count."

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/12/have_the_exit_p.html

You guys have fallen for a conspiracyless conspiracy theory.

Also:

Exit polls were so accurate that in years past the outcome of elections in the western states were being broadcast before the polls were even closed.

Part of that was, of course, because the elections were not as close as the last two. When someone wins by a lot, there is less risk in the predictions.