Recent wave of US police murders: statistically significant?

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In summary, statistically significant refers to finding a true relationship or difference in a population rather than just chance. The frequency of police murders in the US varies and there has been a recent increase, particularly among Black Americans. Possible causes for this increase include systemic racism, militarization of police, and inadequate training.
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GeorgeRaetz
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11 US police officers "www.foxnews.com/us/2011/01/24/authorities-fear-cops-targeted-officers-shot-hours/#content"[/URL]starting about 23Jan2010. Is this a statistical fluke, or not? Here is my calculation:
In 2010 there were about 90 non traffic officer deaths ,mostly shootings. That's a rate of lambda=90/yr
Assuming a random distribution over time, the probability of k deaths after a time t with death rate lambda is given by the Poisson formula:

P(t,k,lambda)=exp(-lambda t) (lambda t)[SUP]k[/SUP]/k!

Plug in values t=yr/365, k=11 I get:
P(yr/365,11,90/yr)~4 10[SUP]-15[/SUP].

In other words, the probability that 11 cops would be murdered in a one day period is about one over 2 10[SUP]14[/SUP].
Given that there have been far less than 10[SUP]14[/SUP] days since the Universe began, that does seem to be an extraordinarily unusual day.
Or have I made a mistake in calculation or logic?
 
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No, you haven't made a mistake in your calculation or logic. The probability of 11 US police officers being murdered in one day is indeed extraordinarily small. It is likely that this is not merely a statistical fluke, but rather the result of some other factor at play.
 

1. What is the definition of "statistically significant"?

Statistical significance refers to the likelihood that a pattern or result is not due to chance, but rather reflects a true relationship or difference in a population. In other words, it is a measure of the confidence we have in the validity of a research finding.

2. How common are police murders in the US?

The frequency of police murders in the US varies depending on the source of data and the definition of "murder". According to data from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, there were 1,004 reported incidents of police killings in 2019. However, this number is likely an underestimate as it only includes incidents reported by law enforcement agencies.

3. Is there a recent wave of police murders in the US?

There is evidence to suggest that there has been a recent increase in police murders in the US. According to data from the Mapping Police Violence project, there were 1,098 reported incidents of police killings in 2020, a 6% increase from 2019. Additionally, a study by researchers at the University of Michigan found that police killings increased by almost 25% in the weeks following the murder of George Floyd in May 2020.

4. Are certain groups more likely to be victims of police murders?

Data shows that Black Americans are disproportionately more likely to be victims of police murders compared to other racial/ethnic groups. According to the Mapping Police Violence project, Black people accounted for 28% of those killed by police in 2020, despite making up only 13% of the population. Other marginalized groups, such as Native Americans and Hispanic/Latinx individuals, also experience higher rates of police killings.

5. What are the potential causes of the recent wave of police murders?

There is no single cause for the recent wave of police murders in the US. Some experts point to systemic racism and biases within law enforcement as contributing factors. Others suggest that the militarization of police and lack of accountability for officers involved in these incidents may also play a role. Additionally, mental health issues and inadequate training have been cited as potential factors in police killings.

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