I'm sure this is the kind of question this forum gets a lot, but I looked at a few of the recent probability questions and they were all homework questions dealing with numerical values and such, so forgive the bland question. If I throw a die once a day, what formula can I use to judge the probability of the die landing on a predetermined value (say a 4) after a certain number of days? It's been a while since I had any coursework on probability, so all I've got right now is a little intuition. Of course, each day there would be a 1/6 chance of the die hitting the 4, but after 6 days it seems like there should be a fairly good probability of the die having hit 4, and with even more days the probability should increase but never reach certainty. Surely there's a formula for this, could anyone point me in the right direction?