Saudi Arabia giving green light to Israel?

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  • #1
skippy1729
Apparently this is a possibility: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article7148555.ece

The "stone age" monarchy terrified of the "stone age" theocracy!

The real unknown is whether Obama would shoot down an IAF mission over Iraq en route to Iran. George Washington was right about foreign entanglements; unfortunately we are way past that now.


Skippy
 

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  • #2
OmCheeto
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Apparently this is a possibility: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article7148555.ece

The "stone age" monarchy terrified of the "stone age" theocracy!

The real unknown is whether Obama would shoot down an IAF mission over Iraq en route to Iran. George Washington was right about foreign entanglements; unfortunately we are way past that now.


Skippy
Wow. I was mistaken. Israel is a pawn of the Arabs!

skippy's link said:
Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear sites
Go figure.

Om from the now defunct Recent Ship to Gaza turmoil thread said:
https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=2749608&postcount=472"

hmmm.... blah blah blah.....
I support the humanitarian blah blah blah, blah blah blah......

Then we'll have Salam. Until of course the Arabs and Persians start at it again.

... blah blah blah blah blah
Would anyone like some stock tips today?
 
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  • #3
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Apparently this is a possibility: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article7148555.ece

The "stone age" monarchy terrified of the "stone age" theocracy!

The real unknown is whether Obama would shoot down an IAF mission over Iraq en route to Iran. George Washington was right about foreign entanglements; unfortunately we are way past that now.


Skippy
unfortunately, things like this are little more than rumor, and there is no way to know until after the fact. even so, governments are likely to deny such things if they do occur. the bigger question is whether a story like this affects either Iran or markets.
 
  • #4
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The problem is that if Israel did strike (or any other country, for that matter), Iran could shut off 1/3rd of the worlds oil supply and crash the already weak markets.
 
  • #5
Office_Shredder
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The problem is that if Israel did strike (or any other country, for that matter), Iran could shut off 1/3rd of the worlds oil supply and crash the already weak markets.
Iran supplies about 5% of the world's oil supply (although even that small change in supply could result in drastic price increases). On the other hand, oil is something like 80% of Iran's exports, so we'll see how their economy handles the shock, especially when America and Europe have strategic oil reserves that could be used to ease the price fluctuations in the face of Iran turning off the tap.

Also America doesn't actually buy any oil from Iran, so I imagine China would be the one most immediately affected by such actions, and that doesn't seem like something Iran would want to do (piss off China)
 
  • #6
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Iran supplies about 5% of the world's oil supply (although even that small change in supply could result in drastic price increases). On the other hand, oil is something like 80% of Iran's exports, so we'll see how their economy handles the shock, especially when America and Europe have strategic oil reserves that could be used to ease the price fluctuations in the face of Iran turning off the tap
Where did you get this number (5%) from? My understanding is that it is much higher. See this link:

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0922041.html

(I'm trying to find a better link though, I could be wrong.)

Also America doesn't actually buy any oil from Iran, so I imagine China would be the one most immediately affected by such actions, and that doesn't seem like something Iran would want to do (piss off China)
That's a good point.
 
  • #7
Office_Shredder
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Cyrus, from your own link Iran only makes about 6.7% of the world's total oil
 
  • #8
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I don't believe we can destroy Iran's nuclear plans without the US help.

1. Too many tactical problems. (distance, amount of sites to be destroyed)
2. The price we'll have to pay can be high.
3. We can just kill the lunatic, and let the Persians choose a real leader. (I think the Persians actually among the most cultured Muslim people, so I have hope there)

*Physical confrontation is not always the best one.
 
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  • #9
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Cyrus, from your own link Iran only makes about 6.7% of the world's total oil
I ran the numbers, and you're right 6.7013% - Interesting. (That's why its important to actually calculate the numbers, and not just look at the relative ranking! :redface:)

It's pretty amazing (and scary) that a country with as little as 6% of the market share in oil can have so much power over the global economy.
 
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  • #10
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The problem is that if Israel did strike (or any other country, for that matter), Iran could shut off 1/3rd of the worlds oil supply and crash the already weak markets.
Indeed, and a few months ago there were actually virtual war games performed at the Pentagon exporing different scenarios. This was reported on CNN, as I recall, in each case Iran won the war. One scenario was that Israel launches a surprise atack on Iran. This turned out to be the worse case scenario for the West. A US led attack was a bit better but Iran ended up winning here too.


The problem is indeed that Iran can easily target the oil and gas installations in the Gulf using short range missiles. They are easy to fire (they work on solid fuel), can easily be hidden in caves. Then if Israel were to strike first, you won't have thousands of aircaft patrolling the Iranian skies for many weeks. So, Iran then finds itself for an open goal. They can then even launch their clumsy liquid fueled mssiles with impunity, deploy their navy etc. etc.

So, that would be total disaster for the West. But even if the US were to launch an attack, Iran can still continue to cause damage to the Saudi oil installations and the gas installations in Qatar without the US being able to put a stop to the Iranian missile launches.

Compare this to Israel vs. Hezbollah. Hezbollah is small force concentrated in a small area in South Lebanon using low quality inaccurate missiles. Israel fought them using a modern air force equipped with state of the art electronics. Yet Israel was not able to put a stop the the Hezbollah missile firings. And those missile firings, despite their lack of accuracy, forced parts of Northern Israel to close down.

The war ended after a UN brokered cease fire, so Israel was not able to win the war in its own terms. Also Israel used the cover of that cease fire to move large number of forces into South Lebanon. During the war, of course, Israel did move forces into Lebanon, but not in large numbers.
 
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  • #11
Vanadium 50
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One scenario was that Israel launches a surprise atack on the US.
:surprised
 
  • #12
russ_watters
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The real unknown is whether Obama would shoot down an IAF mission over Iraq en route to Iran.
Why would he do that? Obama should love it if the IAF attacked Iran so he wouldn't have to!
 
  • #13
Office_Shredder
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Because the war game scenario has Israel destroying the US force in Iraq!!!!
 
  • #14
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Because the war game scenario has Israel destroying the US force in Iraq!!!!
yeah, that's what pentagon does, play war games. they've probably got a contingency plan for invasion by Iceland, too.
 
  • #15
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I believe Count Iblis meant - Israel will attack Iran without informing US first... [Israel nuking Russia is more likely then attacking US]

In fact here in Israel we have similar "war games" and all of them bad.
 
  • #17
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Why would he do that? Obama should love it if the IAF attacked Iran so he wouldn't have to!
As I understand it, the IAF planes would have to transmit the correct codes so as not to be automatically targetted by the US air defense systems in Iraq. It was difficult enough to prevent friendly fire incidents in the Iraq war; British planes have been shot down by patriot missiles by glitches in the automatic targetting system.
 
  • #18
Gokul43201
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Why would he do that? Obama should love it if the IAF attacked Iran so he wouldn't have to!
Bush didn't like it; why should Obama?
 
  • #19
Office_Shredder
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Bush didn't like it; why should Obama?
When did this happen?
 
  • #21
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Of course they're going to deny it. We won't know the truth until Israel hits Iran and we see whether the planes went over Saudi Arabia
 
  • #22
mheslep
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Of course they're going to deny it. We won't know the truth until Israel hits Iran and we see whether the planes went over Saudi Arabia
Yes maybe so. It is also obvious that tabloid hacks will invent stories such as these.
 
  • #23
skippy1729
Saudi Arabia denied the report:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=acrkoNLwjfwM&pid=20601087 [Broken]
They did not however deny that they, Saudi Arabia, have conducted tests to stand down its air defences. A rather peculiar military exercise in most circumstances but quite natural if they did, in fact, give the green light privately.

Skippy
 
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  • #24
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They did not however deny that they, Saudi Arabia, have conducted tests to stand down its air defences. A rather peculiar military exercise in most circumstances but quite natural if they did, in fact, give the green light privately.

Skippy

Sounds a bit strange to me from a tactical point of view. Unless the Saudi's give the codes for safely overflying Saudi Arabia to Israel so that IAF planes will not be automatically targetted by their Patriot missiles, simply turning off the air defense would allow Iran to hit almost everything in Saudi Arabia with their missiles.
 

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