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News Saudi Arabia giving green light to Israel?

  1. Jun 12, 2010 #1
    Apparently this is a possibility: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article7148555.ece

    The "stone age" monarchy terrified of the "stone age" theocracy!

    The real unknown is whether Obama would shoot down an IAF mission over Iraq en route to Iran. George Washington was right about foreign entanglements; unfortunately we are way past that now.


    Skippy
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Jun 12, 2010 #2

    OmCheeto

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    Wow. I was mistaken. Israel is a pawn of the Arabs!

    Go figure.

    Would anyone like some stock tips today?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 25, 2017
  4. Jun 12, 2010 #3
    unfortunately, things like this are little more than rumor, and there is no way to know until after the fact. even so, governments are likely to deny such things if they do occur. the bigger question is whether a story like this affects either Iran or markets.
     
  5. Jun 12, 2010 #4
    The problem is that if Israel did strike (or any other country, for that matter), Iran could shut off 1/3rd of the worlds oil supply and crash the already weak markets.
     
  6. Jun 12, 2010 #5

    Office_Shredder

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    Iran supplies about 5% of the world's oil supply (although even that small change in supply could result in drastic price increases). On the other hand, oil is something like 80% of Iran's exports, so we'll see how their economy handles the shock, especially when America and Europe have strategic oil reserves that could be used to ease the price fluctuations in the face of Iran turning off the tap.

    Also America doesn't actually buy any oil from Iran, so I imagine China would be the one most immediately affected by such actions, and that doesn't seem like something Iran would want to do (piss off China)
     
  7. Jun 12, 2010 #6
    Where did you get this number (5%) from? My understanding is that it is much higher. See this link:

    http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0922041.html

    (I'm trying to find a better link though, I could be wrong.)

    That's a good point.
     
  8. Jun 12, 2010 #7

    Office_Shredder

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    Cyrus, from your own link Iran only makes about 6.7% of the world's total oil
     
  9. Jun 12, 2010 #8
    I don't believe we can destroy Iran's nuclear plans without the US help.

    1. Too many tactical problems. (distance, amount of sites to be destroyed)
    2. The price we'll have to pay can be high.
    3. We can just kill the lunatic, and let the Persians choose a real leader. (I think the Persians actually among the most cultured Muslim people, so I have hope there)

    *Physical confrontation is not always the best one.
     
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2010
  10. Jun 12, 2010 #9
    I ran the numbers, and you're right 6.7013% - Interesting. (That's why its important to actually calculate the numbers, and not just look at the relative ranking! :redface:)

    It's pretty amazing (and scary) that a country with as little as 6% of the market share in oil can have so much power over the global economy.
     
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2010
  11. Jun 13, 2010 #10
    Indeed, and a few months ago there were actually virtual war games performed at the Pentagon exporing different scenarios. This was reported on CNN, as I recall, in each case Iran won the war. One scenario was that Israel launches a surprise atack on Iran. This turned out to be the worse case scenario for the West. A US led attack was a bit better but Iran ended up winning here too.


    The problem is indeed that Iran can easily target the oil and gas installations in the Gulf using short range missiles. They are easy to fire (they work on solid fuel), can easily be hidden in caves. Then if Israel were to strike first, you won't have thousands of aircaft patrolling the Iranian skies for many weeks. So, Iran then finds itself for an open goal. They can then even launch their clumsy liquid fueled mssiles with impunity, deploy their navy etc. etc.

    So, that would be total disaster for the West. But even if the US were to launch an attack, Iran can still continue to cause damage to the Saudi oil installations and the gas installations in Qatar without the US being able to put a stop to the Iranian missile launches.

    Compare this to Israel vs. Hezbollah. Hezbollah is small force concentrated in a small area in South Lebanon using low quality inaccurate missiles. Israel fought them using a modern air force equipped with state of the art electronics. Yet Israel was not able to put a stop the the Hezbollah missile firings. And those missile firings, despite their lack of accuracy, forced parts of Northern Israel to close down.

    The war ended after a UN brokered cease fire, so Israel was not able to win the war in its own terms. Also Israel used the cover of that cease fire to move large number of forces into South Lebanon. During the war, of course, Israel did move forces into Lebanon, but not in large numbers.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2010
  12. Jun 13, 2010 #11

    Vanadium 50

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    :surprised
     
  13. Jun 13, 2010 #12

    russ_watters

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    Why would he do that? Obama should love it if the IAF attacked Iran so he wouldn't have to!
     
  14. Jun 14, 2010 #13

    Office_Shredder

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    Because the war game scenario has Israel destroying the US force in Iraq!!!!
     
  15. Jun 14, 2010 #14
    yeah, that's what pentagon does, play war games. they've probably got a contingency plan for invasion by Iceland, too.
     
  16. Jun 14, 2010 #15
    I believe Count Iblis meant - Israel will attack Iran without informing US first... [Israel nuking Russia is more likely then attacking US]

    In fact here in Israel we have similar "war games" and all of them bad.
     
  17. Jun 14, 2010 #16
    Fast typing without making errors is difficult. :redface:
     
  18. Jun 14, 2010 #17
    As I understand it, the IAF planes would have to transmit the correct codes so as not to be automatically targetted by the US air defense systems in Iraq. It was difficult enough to prevent friendly fire incidents in the Iraq war; British planes have been shot down by patriot missiles by glitches in the automatic targetting system.
     
  19. Jun 14, 2010 #18

    Gokul43201

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    Bush didn't like it; why should Obama?
     
  20. Jun 14, 2010 #19

    Office_Shredder

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    When did this happen?
     
  21. Jun 14, 2010 #20
    Last edited by a moderator: May 4, 2017
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