- #1

dem45133

Not to upset anyone, but being an Environmental Scientist for 15 years the "predictions" of sea level increases by GW that I was hearing seemed totally unrealistic to me, even just on the most basic level. Recently I heard one of the hosts on the "Top Science Stories for 2004" show on the science channel state a 16 ft rise at Miami FL for just a certain ice sheet. Some years ago I'd heard even greater numbers for the pole melts... something like 50 ft!

Using a simplified approach with published ice volumes for both poles and the simple formula for spherical volume I calculated a rough estimate based on a average radius of 3963 miles, converting to ft3 for everything, a 28% guestimate on land mass, and get a total increase of sea level of a little better than three INCHES... yes, inches! (3.2218362158 to be exact, or 0.268486351316666667 ft). These numbers are correct given those assumptions, but that reflects the increase on the total water surface (72%) of the globe.

The centrifical force of the earth and the gravitational forces creating our tidal system will prevent that increase in volume for distributing that 3+ inches uniformly (which the volume formula assumes).

Does anyone know where I can get formulas to adjust for these forces?

Have any of you out there ever played with this calc?

Certainly, there must be an oceanography site that has better calcs? Anyone know of any?

Since the shows I saw are geared to children... Id like to send them correct figures. So much of the "environmental" emotional based items I hear now and then just do not add.

Dave

Hillsboro, Ohio