Solving Population Movement Sequence Problem

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In summary, the given problem involves a country with a stable population of 60'000'000 people, divided into a prosperous North and a poorer South. Currently, 20'000'000 people live in the North and 40'000'000 live in the South. A model predicts that each year, 8% of the South's population moves to the North and 2% of the North's population moves to the South. The problem asks to prove that the population of the Northern part of the country, denoted as p_n, satisfies the equation p_n+1 = 4800000 + 0.9p_n. Through some calculations and substitutions, it can be shown that this equation is derived from the
  • #1
Couperin
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Homework Statement

A country has a stable population of 60'000'000 people.
The country can be divided into two regions - a prosperous North and a poorer South.

Currently, 20'000'000 people live in the North while 40'000'000 live in the South.

A model for population movement predicts that each year:
8% of the people living in the South move to the North, and
2% of the people living in the North move to the South.

Let [tex]p_n[/tex] denote the population of the Northern part of the country in [tex]n[/tex] years' time.

Prove that [tex]p_n[/tex] satisfies
[tex]p_0 = 20000000[/tex], [tex]p_n+1 = 4800000 + 0.9p_n[/tex]

My problem

There are some questions involved with this question, and I've answered them. What's bugging me is, I'm sat there looking at this sequence equation, wondering how on Earth the examiner managed to derive it. Could anyone tell me how?

I've tried all sorts of stuff to figure out where the number 4800000 came from, but to no avail.

If it's any use, here's some stuff I managed to find.

[tex]NPop_n+1 = 0.98NPop_n + 0.08SPop_n[/tex]
[tex]SPop_n+1 = 0.92SPop_n + 0.02NPop_n[/tex]
 
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  • #2
The population movement says N(n+1)=N(n)-0.02*N(n)+0.08*S(n). Since the population is stable S(n)=60000000-N(n). Substitute that into the first equation.
 
  • #3
Thanks for your help.
 

1. How can we accurately predict population movement patterns?

Accurately predicting population movement patterns requires a combination of data analysis, statistical modeling, and understanding of social and economic factors. Gathering data on past movements, such as migration patterns, can help inform future predictions. Additionally, incorporating factors such as demographic trends, economic opportunities, and transportation infrastructure can improve accuracy.

2. What are the challenges of solving population movement sequence problems?

One of the main challenges of solving population movement sequence problems is the complexity and variability of human behavior. People's decisions to move are influenced by a multitude of factors, making it difficult to accurately predict. Additionally, gathering and analyzing large amounts of data can be time-consuming and resource-intensive.

3. How can solving population movement sequence problems benefit society?

Solving population movement sequence problems can provide valuable insights for urban planning, transportation development, and disaster preparedness. By understanding population movement patterns, governments and organizations can make informed decisions about resource allocation and infrastructure development, leading to more efficient and equitable societies.

4. What are some data sources used in solving population movement sequence problems?

Data sources used in solving population movement sequence problems can include census data, transportation data, social media data, and mobile phone data. These sources can provide valuable information on population demographics, travel patterns, and social connections, which can help inform predictions of future movements.

5. Are there any ethical considerations when solving population movement sequence problems?

Yes, there are ethical considerations to keep in mind when solving population movement sequence problems. It is important to protect the privacy of individuals and ensure that their personal data is not misused. Additionally, the potential impacts of using this data, such as displacement or discrimination, should be carefully considered and addressed.

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