Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[Stavros Kiri]

HARD RADIATION STORM: A powerful explosion on the sun today (June 8, 2024) peppered Earth and nearby spacecraft with "hard" protons. The radiation storm fogged satellite cameras for hours. Following close behind, a CME is heading for Earth, and its arrival on June 10th could spark G2-class geomagnetic storms.

Above: Today's M9.7-class solar flare recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory

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[Astronuc]

Sunspot AR3697 has made headlines again just before it makes another exit. The sunspot region, formerly known as AR3664, produced the historic geomagnetic storm that led to May's global auroras.

On Saturday (June 8), the sunspot fired off a M9.7-class solar flare, the second strongest type on the classification scale. The flare was powerful enough that it produced the strongest radiation storm since 2017, according to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). These types of events can pose a risk of impact to space launch operations and satellites, and can also disrupt shortwave radio signals.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/t...ongest-radiation-storm-since-2017/ar-BB1nYl0E

There should be some activity tonight.

On Monday (June 10), Region 3697 fired off an even stronger solar flare, a X1.5-class at 7:08 a.m. EST (1108 GMT). Parts of Earth's sunlit side could experience temporary or complete loss of high frequency (HF) radio signals. According to the SWPC forecast, solar activity is expected to be at minor to moderate levels the next few days as Region 3697 rotates out of sight.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"INEFFECTIVE CME IMPACT: As predicted, a CME struck Earth's magnetic field on June 10th (1725 UT). However, the weak impact was ineffective; it did not cause a geomagnetic storm. The CME was hurled into space by an M9.7-class flare from sunspot AR3664/3697 on June 8th."

[The said sunspot, as already mentioned in the previous post above, is departing once again ...- see below]

"Solar wind
speed: 437.3 km/sec
density: 3.64 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0821 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C9 0443 UT Jun11
24-hr: X1 1108 UT Jun10
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0825 UT

Daily Sun: 11 Jun 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot AR3709 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI"


"Current Auroral Oval (for the American continent):

Credit: NOAA/Ovation


Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4.00 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4.33 unsettled
explanation | more data "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

THE MAY 10TH SUPERSTORM ELECTRIFIED EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE: The geomagnetic superstorm of May 10, 2024, did more than spark widespread auroras. New data show that it also electrified Earth's atmosphere. Fair weather electric fields jumped as much as 15% for four days after the storm.

Above: These data show how fair weather electric fields increased for 4 days after the onset of the May 10th superstorm. Credit: Prof. Gang Li, UAH

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[Stavros Kiri]

GREEN GHOSTS IN A GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Last week, a photographer in South Dakota caught Green Ghosts in a geomagnetic storm. Green Ghosts are a relatively new discovery. They appear when sprites shoot into the atmosphere above strong thunderstorms. This may be the first time the mysterious ghosts have been photographed surrounded by auroras.

Above: Red sprites, Green Ghosts, and auroras over South Dakota on June 27th. Credit: Tom Warner.

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[Astronuc]

Sun news July 23: An X14 flare on sun’s far side this morning?​

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

Today’s top story: Something big and powerful is causing a ruckus on the sun’s far side. Around 0 UTC this morning (July 23), a large farside eruption caused a huge halo CME (see the image above). That’s when a coronal mass ejection (CME) is situated on the sun so that an expanding cloud of an cloud of solar material and magnetic fields looms larger and larger, forming a “halo” around our star as seen from Earth. And experts are now estimating that this particular event might have started with an X14 flare! Halo CMEs often mean there’s a CME headed toward Earth. This CME is not headed our way, but, if it had been, it night have caused a dazzling (and perhaps scary) geomagnetic event, such as the one of October 28, 2003.

Last 24 hours: In the past day, solar activity has been moderate, with one M flare. Between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today, we saw solar activity on the sun’s near side reduce from 31 flares yesterday to nine flares today: an M flare and eight C flares. The largest flare was an M1.5 on July 22 at 13 UTC from AR3744. An R1 (minor) radio blackout affected an area over the Atlantic Ocean off the west coast of Africa. Following this M flare, another flare that narrowly missed becoming an M (C9.0) came from AR3762 at 15:26 UTC on July 22. The lead flare producer of the period was sunspot region AR3762 with three flares. Today the sun has two active regions showing a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity: AR3751 and AR3762. Sunspot AR3761 kept its magnetic complexity at a beta-gamma level. The southwest quadrant has the two largest sunspot regions in size. The remaining regions have simple alpha or beta magnetic complexity. The sun has nine numbered active regions.
Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 60%. The chance for X flares is 15%.
Next expected CME: Yesterday’s (late July 21) dark spray from a filament eruption created a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that is expected to reach Earth on July 24. No new Earth-directed CMEs were in the available imagery.

I was looking for more information on the July 21 CME.
https://www.earth.com/news/geomagnetic-storm-warning-issued-astronauts-auroras/

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

 

[Stavros Kiri]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Two plumes of dark plasma flew away from the sun yesterday, launching a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. NOAA forecast models suggest the halo CME will strike our planet during the early UT hours of July 24th, sparking a G2-class geomagnetic storm. Photographers in northern-tier US States may be able to catch auroras after the CME arrives.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

MAJOR FARSIDE SOLAR FLARE: Europe's Solar Orbiter (SolO) spacecraft just detected the most intense solar flare of the current solar cycle. The X14-category explosion sprayed energetic particles throughout the solar system, causing high dose rates on Mars and even hitting Earth on the opposite side of the sun. The source of the flare could turn to face our planet late next week.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Sun July 28, 2024

CANNIBAL CME ALERT: Multiple CMEs are heading toward Earth following a series of strong M-class solar flares this weekend. Two of the CMEs may be merging to form a potent Cannibal CME. The action begins on July 30th and 31st when the CMEs are expected to arrive, possibly sparking strong G3-class geomagnetic storms.

Above: A series of strong M-class explosions on July 27-28 coming primarily from active sunspot complex AR3765-67

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[Stavros Kiri]

Mon. July 29, 2024

"SOLAR ACTIVITY IS HIGH: Sunspot complex AR3765-67 is crackling with strong flares--and they're getting stronger. An impulsive X1.5 flare this morning at 0237 UT caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over Japan, southeast Asia and Australia (map). More X-flares are in the offing as the sunspot complex turns directly toward Earth later today."

"Daily Sun: 29 Jul 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot complex AR3765-67 is crackling with strong almost X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI" .

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Wed. July 31, 2024

1. "GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): Multiple CMEs are heading for Earth. They could spark G2-class geomagnetic storms when they arrive on July 31st and August 1st. During such storms, naked-eye auroras may be seen in northern-tier US states and central Europe."

2. "CANNIBAL CME SPARKS PHOTOGRAPHIC AURORAS: A Cannibal CME struck Earth's magnetic field on July 30th at 0027 UT. The impact sparked a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm with photographic auroras as far south as Arizona:

"The auroras were not visible to the naked eye, but my camera was able to capture these faint red pillars from the south rim of the Grand Canyon," says photographer David Blanchard.

Auroras so faint they're visible only to cameras are not what we expected from a potent Cannibal CME. What happened? Inside this Cannibal CME, magnetic fields fields were pointing in the wrong direction; they did not connect well to Earth's magnetosphere. As a result, the storm was minor (G1) instead of strong (G3)."

3. Solar wind is already elevated ... :

" Solar wind
speed: 481.1 km/sec
density: 1.25 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0447 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M6 1305 UT Jul31
24-hr: M9 1938 UT Jul30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1650 UT

Daily Sun: 31 Jul 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

New sunspot AR3772 has an unstable magnetic field that poses a threat for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI " .

4. Supplement for 2. :
"more images: from Aaron Watson in the West Elk Mountains of Colorado; from Alan Dyer near Gleichen, Alberta; from Carl Bernhardt in the Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona; from Chris Almquist of Ely, MN; from Jake Stehli of Winona, Minnesota".

 

[Stavros Kiri]

1) July 2, 2024

SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 23-YEAR HIGH: The monthly sunspot number just hit a 23-year high. The last time sunspots were this numerous, the sun was on the verge of unleashing the Great Halloween Storms, which included the strongest X-ray solar flare ever recorded (X45) and a CME so powerful it was detected by the Voyager spacecraft at the edge of the solar system.

Above: Above: A composite image of sunspots in July 2024. credit: Senol Sanli

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2) July 4, 2024

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A close encounter with a CME on Aug. 4th sparked a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm. So far, auroras have been sighted as far south as latitude +39N in Colorado. If the storm persists (it might not), mid-latitude auroras may be visible in the USA and Europe during the night of Aug. 4-5.

Above: Auroras sighted in Colorado just before local sunrise on Aug. 4, 2024. Credit: Aaron Watson

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[Stavros Kiri]

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM Now: Strong geomagnetic storms are underway on Aug. 12th in response to multiple CME impacts. So far, Northern Lights have been sighted as far south as Texas, California and Mississippi. The storm shows no immediate sign of abating, and it could continue into the night of Aug. 12-13.

Above: Auroras and STEVE over the Otago Peninsula in New Zealand on Aug. 12th. Photo credit: Ian Griffin

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[Stavros Kiri]

LAST WEEK'S SURPRISE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: On Aug. 28th, a geomagnetic storm surprised forecasters with auroras in Europe and more than a dozen US states including Colorado and California. What happened? Earth got caught in a CME's tail.

Above: Auroras over southern Sweden on Aug. 28, 2024. Photo credit: Malin Englund

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[Stavros Kiri]

(3 days ago, i.e. September 4th)

The Highest Sunspot Number in 23 Years

SUNSPOT NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE: Last month, the average sunspot number exceeded 200 for the first time in 23 years, significantly exceeding official forecasts. The surge could be a harbinger of strong solar activity for years to come. It's also great news for sky watchers as we enter the equinox aurora season.

Above: Average sunspot numbers reached a 23 year high in Aug. 2024

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[Tom.G]

The only thing that comes to mind is: "See Spot run" for a new record.

 

[Astronuc]

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/ssngraphics

Sun news September 8: A dark filament eruption​

Happy Sun Day! For many, today is a day for relaxing and stepping into some downtime. The sun is taking this seriously. The flaring size and rate is low. We also have no new Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs). But the filament eruption yesterday – associated with an M flare and region AR3813/15 – might give Earth a glancing blow on September 11. NASA models say yes on this possibility, but NOAA models say no (see below). We will have to wait and see. The most exciting action today is from a nice, dark filament eruption. The eruption comes from just northwest of disk center. We can see a bright ribbon on the sun after the filament launches. As the filament flys away from the sun it looks like a shadow moving away. It is dark because the material is cooler than the sun behind it. We on’t yet know if any of the sun stuff will head our way. Stay tuned!
Last 24 hours: It is a day of low activity, with only C flares. During our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today), our star produced nine C flares. This is a reduction in flaring rate in contrast with the last several days. There’s no longer any region on the Earth-facing sun now with a delta magnetic complexity, indicative of strong flare potential. Regions AR3806, AR3811, AR3813, and AR3815 have beta-gamma magnetic complexity. All these regions have an increased potential for producing M or X flares, but not as much so as a beta-gamma-delta region. The sun now has eight sunspot regions on its Earth-facing disk, including two newcomers, AR3818 and AR3819.
Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 55%. The chance for X flares is 15%.

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

 

[Vanadium 50]

I was listening to WWVH (Hawaii) on a station in Australia. At 5 MHz. Wow.,

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Sept. 12, 2024

CME IMPACT SPARKS WIDESPREAD RED AURORAS: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field today, sparking a strong geomagnetic storm with red auroras in the United States as far south as California. Two more CMEs are coming, which means a repeat display is possible this weekend.

Above: Auroras over the Owens Valley Radio Observatory near Big Pine, California, on Sept. 12, 2024. Photo credit: Ross Stone

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