Stagnating Civilizations: Causes & Effects

  • Thread starter wolram
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In summary, civilizations have a general pattern of rising and falling, with cycles of expansion and contraction. This can be due to various factors such as war, drought, plague, and internal power struggles. Each case is unique, but it seems to be inevitable. There are also societies that do not fit into clear categories of chiefdoms or civilizations. Climate change has been linked to declines in civilizations, along with arrogance of leaders and complacency of the population. Invasions have also played a role in the decline of civilizations. Human evolution is not linear, as evidenced by the complexity of cultural changes and advancements throughout history.
  • #36
selfAdjoint said:
- every one of them has a one way trip to whatever stability (read death) it has in store. (added in edit) Oh I forgot the KAM theorem that says cycles present in the short term will survive to the long term.
What if those cycles are growth cycles? Instead of absolute stability, can the system tend towards a stable rate of change?
selfAdjoint said:
- no such system, short of death, can be in equilibrium; either it is getting farther from stasis or closer to stasis but never, so long as it's still alive and kicking, at stasis.
In Kurzweil's evolutionary model, there's an equilibrium growth rate, similar to economic growth models. In some intervals a system may be growing very fast, and in others it may be growing very slowly, but it hovers around the equilibrium rate in the long run. That rate is exponential.
 
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  • #37
Mickey said:
What if those cycles are growth cycles? Instead of absolute stability, can the system tend towards a stable rate of change?

I don't believe the KAM theory covers those. A dense set of states forming an attractor that changes in detail but not strength through time is more the subject.

In Kurzweil's evolutionary model, there's an equilibrium growth rate, similar to economic growth models. In some intervals a system may be growing very fast, and in others it may be growing very slowly, but it hovers around the equilibrium rate in the long run. That rate is exponential.

With evolutionary changes this may be possible. But I find no evidence that societies evolve, let alone civilizations. The factors that helped Ur III to thrive in -2100, and bought it down in -2000, were the same ones we see operating today.
 
  • #38
selfAdjoint said:
But I find no evidence that societies evolve, let alone civilizations. The factors that helped Ur III to thrive in -2100, and bought it down in -2000, were the same ones we see operating today.
Kurzweil attempts to bridge biological evolution with technological evolution through humanity. His overarching theme is that someday (soon!) human technology will enhance and largely take over for biological evolution.

He compares it to other evolutionary paradigm shifts, like the shift from single-celled life to multicellular life, and from asexual reproduction to sexual reproduction, as well as the original shift from inorganic matter to organic matter. It sounds like hand-waving until you see his graphs. A couple are available on this wiki page.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity
 
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  • #39
wolram said:
Andre, can climate change be matched with declines in civilization, is there some graph that shows where weather patterns could cause a decline ?

England, Spain, France etc have all had empires, ok they get to big for their
birches, could some analyst predict when an irreversible decline will start ?

There is a lot of evidence in Europe in the 1300's that the onset of the little Ice Age had major effects on population, as well as did Bubonic Plague decimations. It led to a basic collapse of major political powers, and the decline of Feudal life.

See Barbara Tuchman 'A Distant Mirror'. Since she takes a largely historical/political point of view; but gives solid play to envrionmental impacts, like the little ice age. You get the message that society literally fell apart. And that envionmental factors were the major player. For example, Poland was virtually uninhabited by 1400. In 1250 it was a booming frontier. She discusses generalized the loss of faith in the Catholic Church engendered by the plague years. And it's fall from politcal grace. Pope Innocent III in the 1200's was clearly the most important politcial figure of his time. Then after all of the envionmental upheaval of the 1300's by 1378 you see the papal schism and two popes...
 

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