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This question has been bugging me for a long time and I am hoping I can get some insight on the topic.

Please allow me to not directly ask the question because I am looking for non bias or zealous answers.

Say you find a unique object in your yard. Let’s call this unique object a Widget. Now let’s say you want to see if you can find another one so you search your entire yard, which is 1000 square feet, for another Widget. Let’s say you do not find another Widget in your yard.

What are the odds you will find a second Widget if you search your neighbors yard which is 1000 square feet also?

Let’s say you do not find another Widget in your neighbor’s yard… So far you have found one Widget in a total of 2000 square feet.

What are the chances you will find another Widget if you search an addition 1000 square feet ascomparedto an additional 2000 square feet?

If you still do not find a second Widget… Will your chances continually increase of finding a second Widget the more area you search or do they remain the same until you find a second Widget?

If we find 2 Widgets in 5000 square feet it makes sense to me to say we would be likely to find 2 more Widgets if we search another 5000 square feet. But if we only find 1 Widget in 5000 square feet could we still say we would be likely to find a second Widget if we search another 5000 square feet?

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# Statistically speaking, Finding a second unique object

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