1. The problem statement, all variables and given/known data 2. Relevant equations 3. The attempt at a solution I've tried putting this into a poisson distribution, binomial, negative binomial. I've tried to get the interval from 0-1 and subtracting that from 1 to find out what the probability is that the Random variable is X ≥ 2 after 15 tries... it just seems like it should be so simple, any ideas?