1. The problem statement, all variables and given/known data Each year, a man will donate money to a charity with chance x [0,1] (chosen the first time he donated, and not changing), with the prior distribution P(x)=x^3+2x-1/4. Use Bayes law to find a posterior distribution given these observations and help the charity determine if they should expect a donation this year, given that he donated both of the last two years. 2. Relevant equations P(x|observation)=P(observation|x)*P(x)/P(observation) 3. The attempt at a solution I have no samples to go off of, so just hoping someone can tell me if I have the right idea: I want to find P(x|observation) first and then the expected value of P I think. To find P(x|observation) I will do: P(observation|x)=x^2 (because he donated twice, and P(donation)=x) P(x)=x^3+2x-1/4 (prior distribution given) P(ovservation)=∫(f(x)^2) from 0 to 1 (because we need the unconditional probability that f(x)=x. Is my understanding of the above pieces correct?