I have used both (though now I only have Flash MX, I ditched swish.)
Swish is nice if you just want to knock up something quick, easy and simple. However, if you're looking to make rich-media applications, decent graphics or anything like that, don't ever try and use swish. It's simply to basic, and you'll need to search for plugins and things to do things flash could do with its hands tied behind its back.
Flash = Good.
Edit: I just reread your post and realized I missed a bit.
I've used flash for about 3 years now, since Flash 3 (I think... might have been flash 4...) I would say I'm
very experienced with it, and I can do almost anything with it (as long as it doesn't involve really complex maths... I'm going to learn some of that at uni

). I've learned it all by messing around, and I've only read one or two tutorials ever. Using that method, I've discovered a thousand and one things people would never find if they used tutorials... but it's taken a long time.
You'll probably (if you get flash) want to do some tutorials to learn it quick. You should have expert knowledge within about 4 months of learning. Try doing all the tutorials that come with it, and then going to
www.flashkit.com, a handy site for everything flash.
