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The Guardian's Letter Writing Campaign, redux

  1. Nov 5, 2004 #1

    russ_watters

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    We've discussed this before and I remain convinced that this was a serious effort to meddle in US politics. Whether it was or not, it may have done precisely the opposite of what was intended: it may have been the deciding factor in the election - giving the win to Bush.

    Link: Brits' campaign backfires in Ohio
    This is beyond funny - its yet another miscalculation on how to defeat Bush - just this one can't be blamed on Kerry or his staff.
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Nov 5, 2004 #2

    Gokul43201

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    Didn't I just read this somewhere else... ?

    Yup, BobG's post, #52, here.

    What a stupid bunch of morons !! Sheesh ! :grumpy:
     
  4. Nov 5, 2004 #3

    russ_watters

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    Oops - missed that. In any case, I disagree with his point: It may well have affected the vote in the whole state - not just Clark county.
     
  5. Nov 5, 2004 #4
    Again, as I stated in my now locked thread, these people do not understand the American political landscape.
     
  6. Nov 5, 2004 #5

    BobG

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    I imagine it's possible. But I still think it's unlikely.

    There were 8 races in Clark county involving both a Rep and a Dem. Republicans won all 8 races with the Bush-Kerry race being the closest. I'm sure it changed the votes of some, and possibly the votes of people who just heard about it. It would have had to change the votes of around 70,000 people statewide to affect the election. (Clark county only had 68,000 voters, regardless of their total population, but they did have a very good turnout - 76.7% of all registered voters voted).

    I think it's more likely that a good economy in 2000 inflated Gore's results than British letters suddenly changed the county to staunch Republicans.

    http://www.co.clark.oh.us/boe/results.txt
     
  7. Nov 5, 2004 #6

    russ_watters

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    You're probably right, BobG - I realize Bush's margin of victory was 140,000+. How much of that was due to The Guardian's campaign? I don't know - but the chance that The Guardian had a big effect is an entertaining possibility.
     
  8. Nov 5, 2004 #7

    Gokul43201

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    Entertaining to some, infuriating to others...
     
  9. Nov 5, 2004 #8

    russ_watters

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    Same diff - or rather, doubly-entertaining. :biggrin:
     
  10. Nov 5, 2004 #9

    BobG

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    Eventually, I thought about the comment I had made about the incredibly high percentage of registered voters that turned out and decided I had to check something out.

    About 14 counties total surrounding Clark (and including Clark) had very high turnouts compared to the state as a whole with Bush being the main benefactor (how many votes gained since 2000 elections). Since those are added, you can't really take those away and give them to Kerry. I doubt the letters actually changed very many minds.

    Still, that makes a pretty big difference. I think it's plausible the Guardian article may have increased voter turnout by about 10% and added about 48,000 votes to Bush's margin by bringing out more Republican voters. Not enough to change the outcome (unless the provisional votes break very, very heavily in favor of Kerry), but pretty impressive, none the less.

    Probably more heartbreaking for a couple of the other Democrats running. While heavily Republican, usually a couple of Dems win in those areas.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2004
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