Post Election Polls & Results: The Numbers Thread

[Gokul43201]

Feel free to post any pre-election polls, exit polls, opinion polls, market prices or counting results as they come in.

Here are some links to get you going :

Electoral Votes - a compilation from various sources

The Iowa Electronic Market http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm

Projections will be made over the evening and night by CNN, NBC, FOX, and others.

 

[kat]

Here's a link for a nifty http://www.federalreview.com/2004_10_31_blogarchive.htm

 

[Gokul43201]

Here are various current numbers :

Iowa Markets : Kerry = $0.503, Bush = $0.509

Some of the "Battleground States" :

1. NH (4) : Too close to call. K47, B47, N2 (Amer. Res. Gr., Oct 30)

2. PA (21) : http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/pennsylvania.html have K up by 2 to 6, except Gallup, which has B up by 2

3. FL (27) : http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/florida.html . Polls are calling it both ways. Gallup and Zogby give K a lead, while Rasmussen and Strategic Vision are calling it for B.

4. OH (20) : [http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/ohio.html] Too close to call[/URL]. Gallup calling it for K and Zogby, for B (Oct 31).

5. Colorado (9 or 4&5 ) : Too close to call, unless Amendment 36 passes. Zogby (Oct 31) has B up by 1 (B48, K47) statewide.

6. NM (5) : Too close to call. Zogby (Oct 31) has both at 49.

7. HI (4) : B46, K45 as of Oct 20, SMS Research Poll. Large number of undesideds as of that date.

 

[Gokul43201]

Here's a link for a nifty http://www.federalreview.com/2004_10_31_blogarchive.htm

I've got my own little spreadsheet that I made this morning...nothing fancy, but it'll help me keep score.

 

[kat]

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0F1B48A4%2D9C92%2D45D2%2DAC76%2D0417048569BD%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- An Election Day health-sector rally Tuesday could be tied to hopes that a perceived "market-friendly" President Bush will keep his job, plus renewed investor optimism over some key health-care firms.

 

[kat]

http://www.lancasteronline.com/pages/news/local/4/9483

 

[marlon]

I want to bet for a Bush-victory...

marlon

 

[Gokul43201]

Iowa Electronic Markets : Kerry = $0.578, Bush = $0.401

ARE YOU KIDDING ME ?! :

 

[marlon]

ok, let's bet for a Kerry victory...lol

marlon

 

[Gokul43201]

Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia are called for Bush (34)
Vermont in Kerry's (3)

Viginia and S. Carolina have closed but not yet called.

So, no surprises yet, except perhaps that they need more time to call SC

 

[Gokul43201]

WVa called for Bush

SCORE : B = 39, K = 3

Ohio, NC, SC, VA are too early to call

 

[BobG]

Most significant number so far is the exit polling question. As expected, Kerry is carrying the majority of last minute deciders. Tends to support the idea a lot of 'experts' have that the challenger picks up the majority of the undecided.

 

[Gokul43201]

More states have been called. The winners...

Kerry : VT, MA, CT, DE, DC, MD, IL and (surprise !) NJ (which was expected to be close)
Bush : IN, WV, KY, GA, TN, AL, OK (no surprises here)

SCORE : Kerry 77, Bush 66

 

[Gokul43201]

I'm ready (the Newsies are still suffering from the disaster of the 2000 projections) to call VA and NC for Bush. SC (surprise) is amazingly close (with 12% reporting) !

And the first BIG story : Bush has a 10% lead in Florida with about 25% of precincts reporting !

 

[chroot]

- Warren

 

[Gokul43201]

Now, CNN & MSNBC have called VA, NC and SC for Bush.
The score : Bush = 102, Kerry = 77


With 34% reporting in FL, Bush has a 13% lead. Numbers from Palm-Beach, Miami-Dade and Broward are not in yet...and those should close the gap some, but I think Bush will edge through.

 

[Gokul43201]

Looks to me like Florida will go to Bush, and Pennsylvania to Kerry.

All eyes are on Ohio, which is looking close now (but I'm a little worried, looking at the county numbers )

More states have been called : ND, SD, KS, NE, WY and TX go to Bush, as expected.

Kerry has NY and (all 4 of) Maine.


Score : Bush = 155, Kerry = 112

 

[graphic7]

It was expected that the south and plains states would go for Bush. Remember, Kerry, as projected, is looking good in the North and the west votes aren't in yet.

 

[Evo]

Have you looked at the exit polls on CNN?

In the category of "Most Important Issue", moral values is the number one issue with Americans? That's sad.

Moral Values 21%
Economy/Jobs 20%
Terrorism 18%
Iraq 15%
Health Care 8%
Taxes 5%
Education 4%

 

[graphic7]

Have you looked at the exit polls on CNN?

In the category of "Most Important Issue", moral values is the number one issue with Americans? That's sad.

Moral Values 21%
Economy/Jobs 20%
Terrorism 18%
Iraq 15%
Health Care 8%
Taxes 5%
Education 4%

Sad, but expected. People are idiots.

 

[Gokul43201]

In NY, the #1 issue was Iraq, at 85% !

LA and MS have been called for Bush.

Bush = 170, Kerry = 112

 

[graphic7]

In NY, the #1 issue was Iraq, at 85% !

90 percent of the people that voted for Bush in TN voted for him because of his faith. 80 percent of the people that voted for Kerry in TN voted for his intelligence. Shows which set of voters should be cast off the Earth.

 

[Evo]

The Eastern states are the only section where "morals" weren't the number one issue.

Maybe I need to move back east. :grumpy:

 

[Evo]

90 percent of the people that voted for Bush in TN voted for him because of his faith. 80 percent of the people that voted for Kerry in TN voted for his intelligence. Shows which set of voters should be cast off the Earth.

It does make you wonder, doesn't it?

 

[Gokul43201]

Now I'm getting worried about Ohio.

 

[kat]

very odd and interesting commentary here at the nYT

http://forums.nytimes.com/top/opinion/readersopinions/forums/washington/anelectionnightwebjournal/index.html?oref=login&oref=login

Bush just let a television camera and a “pool” of reporters and photographers into the residential area of the White House, where something absolutely shocking happened.

He pronounced himself confident and predicted he would win.

The point of such a pointless revelation is to buoy the spirits and recharge the resolve of his supporters in western states, where polls are still open.

Much more interesting than his words was his manner. To my eyes, he seemed significantly less rattled than he did around this same time on Election Night four years ago, when I was in the “pool” that went up to see him and his family in the Texas Governor’s mansion. He seemed less uncertain than he did earlier today, when the expressions and words of his aides also seemed shakier than they do now.

I would say that we can conclude, at the least, that Bush has become a better actor. But three positively riveting debates proved that that isn’t the case.

 

[Gokul43201]

Things looking very bad for the Dems... Bush is getting FL and OH...MI and WI don't look good either...

...game over ?

 

[klusener]

definitely, based on the results right now, if i were JFK, i would be practicing my concession speech just about now...

 

[klusener]

If the goddamn California's evs come in, then Kerry's total would look much better than the 112 now...

 

[Gokul43201]

california's not enough

 

[klusener]

i know, but right now his total looks pathetic...

 

[Gokul43201]

California to Kerry, Idaho to Bush

SCORE : Bush = 197, Kerry = 188 (too little, too late)

I can't believe these numskulls on CNN and MSNBC who are calling it close.

Kerry needs a miracle to pull it off from here !

In OH, Bush has a 4% lead, in FL, he's won, though the newsies won't say it until the last vote is counted there.

 

[klusener]

are these predictions?

cnn is giving pennsylvania to kerry... that's good.

 

[Gokul43201]

I gave PA to Kerry about an hour ago.

By my numbers Bush has 260 to Kerry's 216. Bush just needs 10 points among the remaining close states on my list (I've given FL and OH to Bush) : NM, NH, NV, HI, CO, IA and AZ. If Bush wins any 10 votes among these states, he's through - piece of cake.

 

[Saint]

Bush seems to win the election, he is leading.

Americans were scared by OSAMA to vote Bush,
pity Kerry.