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The numbers thread

  1. Nov 2, 2004 #1

    Gokul43201

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    Feel free to post any pre-election polls, exit polls, opinion polls, market prices or counting results as they come in.

    Here are some links to get you going :

    Electoral Votes - a compilation from various sources

    The Iowa Electronic Market history and current quotes

    Projections will be made over the evening and night by CNN, NBC, FOX, and others.
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Nov 2, 2004 #2

    kat

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  4. Nov 2, 2004 #3

    Gokul43201

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    Here are various current numbers :

    Iowa Markets : Kerry = $0.503, Bush = $0.509

    Some of the "Battleground States" :

    1. NH (4) : Too close to call. K47, B47, N2 (Amer. Res. Gr., Oct 30)

    2. PA (21) : Most polls have K up by 2 to 6, except Gallup, which has B up by 2

    3. FL (27) : Too close to call. Polls are calling it both ways. Gallup and Zogby give K a lead, while Rasmussen and Strategic Vision are calling it for B.

    4. OH (20) : [http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/ohio.html] Too close to call[/url]. Gallup calling it for K and Zogby, for B (Oct 31).

    5. Colorado (9 or 4&5 ) : Too close to call, unless Amendment 36 passes. Zogby (Oct 31) has B up by 1 (B48, K47) statewide.

    6. NM (5) : Too close to call. Zogby (Oct 31) has both at 49.

    7. HI (4) : B46, K45 as of Oct 20, SMS Research Poll. Large number of undesideds as of that date.
     
  5. Nov 2, 2004 #4

    Gokul43201

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    Attached Files:

  6. Nov 2, 2004 #5

    kat

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    Election hopes spark health stock rally
     
  7. Nov 2, 2004 #6

    kat

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  8. Nov 2, 2004 #7
    I wanna bet for a Bush-victory...

    marlon
     
  9. Nov 2, 2004 #8

    Gokul43201

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    Iowa Electronic Markets : Kerry = $0.578, Bush = $0.401

    ARE YOU KIDDING ME ?????!!!!! :surprised:
     
  10. Nov 2, 2004 #9
    ok, let's bet for a Kerry victory....lol

    marlon
     
  11. Nov 2, 2004 #10

    Gokul43201

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    Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia are called for Bush (34)
    Vermont in Kerry's (3)

    Viginia and S. Carolina have closed but not yet called.

    So, no surprises yet, except perhaps that they need more time to call SC :smile:
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2004
  12. Nov 2, 2004 #11

    Gokul43201

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    WVa called for Bush

    SCORE : B = 39, K = 3

    Ohio, NC, SC, VA are too early to call
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2004
  13. Nov 2, 2004 #12

    BobG

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    Most significant number so far is the exit polling question. As expected, Kerry is carrying the majority of last minute deciders. Tends to support the idea a lot of 'experts' have that the challenger picks up the majority of the undecided.
     
  14. Nov 2, 2004 #13

    Gokul43201

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    More states have been called. The winners...

    Kerry : VT, MA, CT, DE, DC, MD, IL and (surprise !) NJ (which was expected to be close)
    Bush : IN, WV, KY, GA, TN, AL, OK (no surprises here)

    SCORE : Kerry 77, Bush 66
     
  15. Nov 2, 2004 #14

    Gokul43201

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    I'm ready (the Newsies are still suffering from the disaster of the 2000 projections) to call VA and NC for Bush. SC (surprise) is amazingly close (with 12% reporting) !!

    And the first BIG story : Bush has a 10% lead in Florida with about 25% of precincts reporting !!
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2004
  16. Nov 2, 2004 #15

    chroot

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    :frown:

    - Warren
     
  17. Nov 2, 2004 #16

    Gokul43201

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    Now, CNN & MSNBC have called VA, NC and SC for Bush.
    The score : Bush = 102, Kerry = 77


    With 34% reporting in FL, Bush has a 13% lead. Numbers from Palm-Beach, Miami-Dade and Broward are not in yet...and those should close the gap some, but I think Bush will edge through.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2004
  18. Nov 2, 2004 #17

    Gokul43201

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    Looks to me like Florida will go to Bush, and Pennsylvania to Kerry.

    All eyes are on Ohio, which is looking close now (but I'm a little worried, looking at the county numbers :frown:)

    More states have been called : ND, SD, KS, NE, WY and TX go to Bush, as expected.

    Kerry has NY and (all 4 of) Maine.


    Score : Bush = 155, Kerry = 112
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2004
  19. Nov 2, 2004 #18

    graphic7

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    It was expected that the south and plains states would go for Bush. Remember, Kerry, as projected, is looking good in the North and the west votes aren't in yet.
     
  20. Nov 2, 2004 #19

    Evo

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    Have you looked at the exit polls on CNN?

    In the category of "Most Important Issue", moral values is the number one issue with Americans? That's sad.

    Moral Values 21%
    Economy/Jobs 20%
    Terrorism 18%
    Iraq 15%
    Health Care 8%
    Taxes 5%
    Education 4%
     
  21. Nov 2, 2004 #20

    graphic7

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    Sad, but expected. People are idiots.
     
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