Reaching Type One Civilization: Predictions and Possibilities

[Astrophysics]

When do you think type one civilization will be reached?

I think we'll reach type one civilization will be reached in 50 years top and I think that whenever we will reach this we can reach type two civilization very quickly, maybe in about 10/20 years after we've reached type one civilization. But I have no idea when we could reach type three civilization, because it seems a lot harder being able to have control over our universe.

What are your opinions?

 

[FZ+]

Uh... can you explain to me this type X civilisation business?

 

[merak]

astro...perhaps you are right .I would say with "luck" we might make those dates.
However I can see how other worlds,that might have existed & might have made it to type 2
blowing themselvs to oblivion before achieving that status.
we would have to know, how many other worlds with life forms there are...and how many if any, made it to type 3.. to know what our chance's are. not knowing lessens our chance.we push ahead blindly,in darkness...

 

[Mentat]

Originally posted by FZ+
Uh... can you explain to me this type X civilisation business?

Basically:

Type 1 = Making full use of our planetary resources. Being able to harness the planet's full potential (that means controling the weather, and anything else - Earthly - that you can think of).

Type 2 = Making full use of the solar system's resources. Being able to use the Sun's energy at will... that kind of thing.

Type 3 = Making full use of the galaxy's resources. This'd probably include being able to use the energy contained at the center of the galaxy (isn't there a BH there?), using the resources of many solar systems, etc...

Again, that's just a broad explanation, and it comes from what I can remember from the book, Visions, by Michio Kaku. You should check out the book (as I'm going to soon, it's been too long since I read it the first time) some time, it's really good.

 

[Astrophysics]

Originally posted by merak
astro...perhaps you are right .I would say with "luck" we might make those dates.
However I can see how other worlds,that might have existed & might have made it to type 2
blowing themselvs to oblivion before achieving that status.
we would have to know, how many other worlds with life forms there are...and how many if any, made it to type 3.. to know what our chance's are. not knowing lessens our chance.we push ahead blindly,in darkness...

Why would they have blown themselves up? I think beings who have even reached type 1 civilization are much to clever to blow themselves up.

 

[selfAdjoint]

I find it hard to see a path to "blowing ourselves up" or to nuclear winter in the next 30-40 years. That would require a spasm of hundreds of hydrogen bombs, which is unlikely given the (reluctant and slow) defusing of the major nuclear arsenals.

One or more nuclear exchanges? Yes, maybe. Under a million dead. Horrible but not a catastrphe for the species.

 

[merak]

astro .. good point! however one must not forget that, there are infinit ways and means of blowing ones self up.
also there are the natural things that can get ya.. that are infinit.
if we make it to type 3...it will be just dumb blind luck.
unless of course god exists and saves us from ourselvs\other unknown's

 

[merak]

Originally posted by selfAdjoint
I find it hard to see a path to "blowing ourselves up" or to nuclear winter in the next 30-40 years. That would require a spasm of hundreds of hydrogen bombs, which is unlikely given the (reluctant and slow) defusing of the major nuclear arsenals.

One or more nuclear exchanges? Yes, maybe. Under a million dead. Horrible but not a catastrphe for the species.

I don't see it either in the near future (hydrogen) war ect
it;s the other unknowns, sars, some super aids virus, ect..
perhaps modern man simply has not been around long enough, to destroy its self...yet

...hmmmm let's see humans (modern) ..only app 25000 yr
universe age app 14 billion... er where are the other type 1.2.3 ... astro?

 

[Astrophysics]

Originally posted by merak
I don't see it either in the near future (hydrogen) war ect
it;s the other unknowns, sars, some super aids virus, ect..
perhaps modern man simply has not been around long enough, to destroy its self...yet

...hmmmm let's see humans (modern) ..only app 25000 yr
universe age app 14 billion... er where are the other type 1.2.3 ... astro?

I think they are out there, but they are so much more intelligent that they consider us as "barbaric uniteresting animals" and they feel that they shouldn't waste theire time with us humans who only think of destruction and power.
I mean would you find humans interesting if you were a type 3 civilization being?

 

[merak]

Originally posted by Astrophysics
I think they are out there, but they are so much more intelligent that they consider us as "barbaric uniteresting animals" and they feel that they shouldn't waste theire time with us humans who only think of destruction and power.
I mean would you find humans interesting if you were a type 3 civilization being?

YES...

 

[Astrophysics]

Originally posted by merak
YES...

What would make humans so interesting to you?

 

[Beren]

Originally posted by Astrophysics
What would make humans so interesting to you?

For the same reason we have Entomologists.

 

[Cyg-1]

Originally posted by Beren
For the same reason we have Entomologists.

heh

IMO The agent in The Matrix was right about humans: we act like a viruses, only consume everything we got in hands but I don't think we will ever live long enough to control our planet... or any other. or stars... nope. I think there's going to be somekind of a backtep.. "Lets mail some Anthrax to US or something" ... well, I'm in Europe so that would not affect directly to me but anyways. Somebody somewhere will definately destroy the ideal vision of future, there will always be people like G.W. Bush and S. Hussein or O. Bin Laden.

Just when we can buy fusion-batteries from local store, I might believe we can reach Type 1. and still it would take several decades from there.

p.s. I'm a pessimist, did u see? ;)

 

[THANOS]

To reach type one hmmm... unlikely to be soon. To have full control over our planetary resources will most likely require all the countries to work together or one or more countries to work together to dominate the world.
Although if we ever reach type one our population will defiantly be lower due to the wars before reaching type one also assuming that the wars don't destroy the technology, scientists, and engineers required to reach type one. And i do believe that type two can be reached shortly after type one.

 

[Beren]

I think that by at least 2100-30 we'll have reached Type I. We're really not quite as far off as people seem to think. As I posted on the actual topic for the civ. ratings, however, I slightly disagree with the system of measurement. At our current rate, however, I don't see why we wouldn't be there in a hundred years.

 

[merak]

Originally posted by Astrophysics
What would make humans so interesting to you?

astro...havent you heard ? Earth women are the most beautiful in the universe!

 

[Astrophysics]

Originally posted by merak
astro...havent you heard ? Earth women are the most beautiful in the universe!

I know that, but I don't think aliens from a type 1, 2 or 3 civilization would come and watch Earth women

 

[selfAdjoint]

Ummm, ever hear of the National Geographic. And why it was fascinating to high tech teenage boys?

 

[Nereid]

Returning for a moment to an earlier comment, Merak:

...hmmmm let's see humans (modern) ..only app 25000 yr
universe age app 14 billion... er where are the other type 1.2.3 ... astro?

and Astrophysics:

I think they are out there, but they are so much more intelligent that they consider us as "barbaric uniteresting animals" and they feel that they shouldn't waste theire time with us humans

Whether any of the type 1, 2, or 3's are interested in us or not, harnessing a planet's, solar system's, or galaxy's resources will surely leave lots of signs (OK, maybe type 3's are fastidious and advanced enough to leave no trace, but early type 1's - extrapolating from us homo sapiens - will leave plenty).

Where are they?

Taking Merak's numbers one step further. Average time for a type 1 (or 2) to move from one star to another: 5,000 years. This gives a (roughly spherical) wave advancing at ~ 1 light-year per 1,000 years. Time taken to colonise the entire Milky Way? Certainly less than 100 million years, not even one galactic rotation.

So where are they?

 

[Hurkyl]

5,000 years per star...
100,000,000 years to use the whole Milky Way...
= 20,000 stars in the Milky Way.

The figures don't add up.

 

[Nereid]

Hurkyl,

Think compound interest, or capitalism vs central planning.

Once established around a new star, each colony develops - in 5,000 years - the capability of expanding to another star. Those interior to the wave may chose to launch long range colonisation missions - which would speed things up - or just stay at home and mind the kids.

Using 20,000, the number of stars reached after 100 million years would be (max) 2^19,999. That's rather more than the number of baryons in the universe.

 

[caumaan]

I don't believe in a Type I human civilization before 2150. Look at the world today. We are still trying to dry up all the fossile fuels to buy us more time to cleaner systems. We are destroying the rainforests which will be gone soon after 2025, eliminating a massive number of species of plants and animals.

We can't trust other nations because we don't want to and (like all power-mongers) America wants to run a monopoly on weapons and soldiers to we can take anybody out who we don't like. The major religions of the world are busy fighting with one another to contradict themselves in order to defend the values that they once stood for.

We don't even think about others in our day-to-day lives. On Christmas and Thanksgiving, people are getting big and fat on meals so large they would be worshiped in poorer nations without ever thinking about the less fortunate wading in the gene pool.

Another pattern that I have noticed is societal changes when it comes to war. After we finished with our war on communism, parents stopped teaching their kids the values that communists had (sharing, concern for others, etc.) and that is really what this is all about. We need those values in society so badly that we are actually risking our own destruction in order to prevent the rise of los ideals.

Societal decay, especially in America, is on the rise. This nation only has a few decades left before something will happen to it and I don't know what that is going to be at this time, and I am not willing to speculate.

 

[Nereid]

Where are they, with feelin'!

The Earth's atmosphere is not natural, it contains plenty of oxygen (and other things) which would disappear rapidly if not for photosynthetic life. Within the next few years, at least one space-telescope is planned (the TPF - Terrestrial Planet Finder) that will look for Earth-sized planets around nearby stars.

A linear extrapolation of our technological (and maybe economic) capabilities suggests that within 100 years (about as far out as this technique has some credibility) we should be able to find/see most Earth-like planets within ~500 to 5,000 light-years, and tell what proportion have significant quantities of oxygen in their atmospheres. This will tell our grandchildren how common life is.

"I Love Lucy" reached our nearest stellar neighbours quite some time ago now. If Type 1's are like us (no reason to think they are, or aren't; no independent data either!), by 2100 we will be able to tune into any other Type 1's equivalent of "I Love Lucy" within ~1,000 light years, and maybe much further.

Where are they, all those Type 1's?

 

[marcus]

Originally posted by Nereid

Where are they, all those Type 1's?

Someone's asking Fermi's question again

I sympathize. I've asked it myself in some old thread or threads
before the format change. Its a puzzling question.
All the answers seem so weird. (at least to me)

I think your numbers used to estimate the speed that the
colonization-wave moves are all right, at least they look
sort of familiar. Interstellar travel can be quite slow and
plenty of time can be allowed to gather strength before
moving on and still the whole galaxy gets colonized
in a fairly brief time like the 100 million years you mentioned.

So there should be some sign----even of an earlier civilization that
came and left beercans and went away, or of species that died
of boredom or the common cold a billion years ago. Why is there
no sign. It is very peculiar. It makes me respect Fermi a lot that
he started the practice of asking this question and I believe that
we should ask it each year and teach our children to ask it.

And on PF we should ask it very clearly and forcefully, as you just
have Nereid. I can count the questions I know of this weight on the fingers
of one hand.

 

[flattered_cracker]

Originally posted by Astrophysics
I think they are out there, but they are so much more intelligent that they consider us as "barbaric uniteresting animals" and they feel that they shouldn't waste theire time with us humans who only think of destruction and power. I mean would you find humans interesting if you were a type 3 civilization being?

Agreed. Type-3 consciousnesses find humans completely uninteresting. However "they" are still trying to figure out what makes humans tick, mentally and spiritually tick. They have an understanding of how human physiology engages with the computational human mind and the artificiality of the human soul but they can't find much spiritual value in either. It's almost as if spirituality is something we humans have not seemed to have developed yet. What can we expect to see from a type-zero civility? We'll if we expect 0 to jump to 1 any time soon we may have counted our chickens before theyv'e hatched. Only a type-1 consciousness (for which there are a quantity of humans now working in the fields of science, philosophy and the arts) can attain type 2 and 3 civilism in the near future.

 

[Astrophysics]

Originally posted by flattered_cracker
Agreed. Type-3 consciousnesses find humans completely uninteresting. However "they" are still trying to figure out what makes humans tick, mentally and spiritually tick. They have an understanding of how human physiology engages with the computational human mind and the artificiality of the human soul but they can't find much spiritual value in either. It's almost as if spirituality is something we humans have not seemed to have developed yet. What can we expect to see from a type-zero civility? We'll if we expect 0 to jump to 1 any time soon we may have counted our chickens before theyv'e hatched. Only a type-1 consciousness (for which there are a quantity of humans now working in the fields of science, philosophy and the arts) can attain type 2 and 3 civilism in the near future.

Why do you think we can't reach type 1 civilization in the near future? In think that our work on the field of science is exponentialy growing, so I am sure we will reach type 1 civilization in about 50 years from now.

 

[TENYEARS]

Type 1, 2, 3? Here is your future from the future. Crumbled concret driven by the need to consume. The sharpness gone as human kind becomes like a dull ache across the planet. The joy and pain, reason and not melting into a life without cause under darkend skys and the smell of burnt offerings. When I do not know, but that it will be you can be assured. She was my mistress since I was young and you are killing her. The unconciousness of humanity will reap what it sows. Dream on.

 

[flattered_cracker]

Originally posted by TENYEARS
Type 1, 2, 3? Here is your future from the future. Crumbled concret driven by the need to consume. The sharpness gone as human kind becomes like a dull ache across the planet. The joy and pain, reason and not melting into a life without cause under darkend skys and the smell of burnt offerings. When I do not know, but that it will be you can be assured. She was my mistress since I was young and you are killing her. The unconciousness of humanity will reap what it sows. Dream on.

And so the answer to the question of this post is: ten years. The "what" of this "when" will be left to human beings. Indeed there are seeds and what we shall reap in this world will reflect what we are sowing in the other and vice versa. If humans continue to ignore the application of it's deepest truth then not even it's own God, or it's epistemic intelligence, will have the energy to change ALL the quantities of that irreversible process. [al]

 

[Astrophysics]

Originally posted by TENYEARS
Type 1, 2, 3? Here is your future from the future. Crumbled concret driven by the need to consume. The sharpness gone as human kind becomes like a dull ache across the planet. The joy and pain, reason and not melting into a life without cause under darkend skys and the smell of burnt offerings. When I do not know, but that it will be you can be assured. She was my mistress since I was young and you are killing her. The unconciousness of humanity will reap what it sows. Dream on.

Great poem, but was it also an anwser to my question?

 

[flattered_cracker]

I think we have allready reached type-1 in our sciences in many areas. Dr. Kaku's work for instance, and in many fields esspecially in http://livingpoly.kist.re.kr/Teams/living/index.html .

 

[selfAdjoint]

Way to go, man!

Not all the physicists are industrial, you mention Kaku, and there's also Witten, and a few others. Remember, we can't go till they get it right.

 

[flattered_cracker]

Yes exactly, there's some amazing work being done. Like Edward Witten whose mind is open to so many fields from all types of mathematics, string physics, and into stochastic analysis in physics as well. It seems everywhere I go to look in fields of physics and mathematics Witten has contributed. This open mindedness takes not only imagination but also an intellect that is able to know and understand the connections between these diverse fields. Someone once said, but we don't know who, that:

"Creativity in Science is seeded by knowledge of fields other than ones own"

I discovered this quote on a website called C-Space which has lot's of amazing work as well. Another one is A. Muvrin's theory http://members.tripod.com/stemy27/title.html , which began in 1992 with his GU thesis on the microtubule (neuronal cytoskeleton) and quantum coherence scales! There are some incredible conclusions and diagrammatic tables on his site there. This work is inspiring and should become a standard of thinking in unification theory very soon.

 

[Poorichard2]

All interesting enough.

I see the possiblity that other beings from out there some where
may be of a different mind set then our own. i.e. perhaps their
brain structure will be different then our own enabling hearing,
sight,feeling and smell/taste to be viewed from a information base
in relation to their mental capacity which in this case will be a mental
reality of seeing their world entirely different. Should this be the case
their genes ,DNA and so on will carry a code quite different then our
own and perhaps even their physical form? Maybe they will be seeing
with an organ that is capable of taking in the full spectrum of light, or
perhaps a combination of properties into a unified other then our own?
This would mean other possiblities,such as technology,philosophy,
sciences maybe even religion. Consider how our own technology was
developed, from what our brain has processed information throughout
centuries of trial and error. Our technology may not be understood
to these beings from other worlds? just as we might not understand
their technology. If our civilization survives we might find answers to
questions waiting for discovery, if not we have no one to blame other
than our brain? mind? or ourselves.

 

[Nereid]

new meaning to the phrase "scum of the Universe"?

If baryonic matter comprises but 4% of the Universe, aren't we then just the pond scum?

Perhaps all the real aliens are made of dark matter, or even dark energy? Perhaps we aren't where the action is at all! Maybe there are billions of Type III analogue civilisations in the dark matter halos of galaxy clusters, all communicating via a CDMA-like encoding of neutrino streams, and tapping into dark energy for sustenance.

In the Great Shapley Supercluster Library, there is a one paragraph entry (in a dusty tome, on a high shelf, in one of the 25 billion 'back buildings' rarely visited) describing a curious observation about a barely detectable deviation from thermodynamic equilibrium of some mote in the baryonic part of a minor galaxy in the outer regions of the Virgo cluster; the para concludes (translation) "probably just another observational error"

 

[selfAdjoint]

Wow! Terrific!