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The retreat

  1. Jul 19, 2004 #1
    Global warming on retreat.

    The British press is usually in the top scaremongers when it’s about the potential disasters of Anthropogenic Global Warming. It’s about finished by now. See how elegant the retreat is:

    http://news.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/07/18/wsun18.xml

     
  2. jcsd
  3. Jul 19, 2004 #2
    At last a voice of reason!!!!
    If only more people would take the time to examine the data presented by environmental alarmists objectively and ask questions!!!!!!!
    I have found that when you examine the data they present (when they can be bothered!) closely, you find all sorts of discrepancies, distortions (for instance data on claimed halving of sperm count over the last 60 years, or that we are running out of resources) and in some cases just guesswork with no references or evidence of any kind (for instance Norman Myers claim made in 1974 that 40,000 species will become extinct every year for the next 25 years!!!!
    Keep up the good work Andre!
     
  4. Jul 19, 2004 #3
    Thanks, There is a lot of baloney going on indeed. Perhaps check the article of
    Prof Bellamy
    too. Although I must say that in his enthousiasm, his hard fact claims are a wee bit inaccurate.
     
  5. Jul 20, 2004 #4

    Ivan Seeking

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    I notice that you cheer them when they agree with you, and you jeer them when they don't. Do we take this as accurate or not? The source is good, but not good?
     
  6. Jul 20, 2004 #5
    Well, do you think that the truth is dependent on the emotions of a single person? Anyway it's a happy day when the very first signs of the end of a costly hype are there.
     
  7. Jul 25, 2004 #6

    Ivan Seeking

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    I will say this for now: First, as you know, I have been interested in this as an explanation for a very long time. It is important to remember though that this is still just one of many reports that will come. I saw some pretty convincing data about this many years ago but this did not settle the argument. We still might find errors that led to this conclusion. Next, it is still critical that we determine precisely how significant our contributions to green house gases might be. Given the solar flux explanation for warming, we may or may not be a significant contributor to increased global warming. We still might be making the problem worse. We might be the straw the breaks the camels back; we just don't know yet.

    The most important thing is that we figure out what is happening, and what if any role we do or should play in these events. It may be that relocating population centers is the primary order of business; if this gets bad enough. In fact we need to try to figure that out as well. How bad will this get; according to the solar flux model?

    Honestly, I would cheerfully welcome the end of green house gas concerns. This problem thwarts many otherwise promising alternative energy options. No matter how we slice the global energy and environmental cake, we need to get away from petro power.
     
  8. Jul 25, 2004 #7

    Ivan Seeking

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    One further comment: It seems like only a few years ago, or even days ago, people were claiming that there is no global warming....hmmm.

    What does this say about the anti-evironment lobby? Should we suddenly forget about the history of this subject?
     
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2004
  9. Jul 26, 2004 #8
    Let's see, there are a few things mixed up here.

    Humanity's first aim should be to use stewardship to preserve the planet. Now this requires accurate assessment of problems and dealing with those in a responsible way. Responsibility not only means ecological awareness but also an economical approach. You cannot spend all your assets to solve a minor or even a non-problem. So is pollution for instance a major problem? Probably so, So we need to look into that. But what if the first whatever volcano produces more pollution in a week than humanity in a century? How about if we spend double or triple the usual amount to clean the air in our area some 10% better if the same amount of money would have cleaned the air in China or India or so with 80%?

    Is/was the hole in the ozone layer a real or imaginary problem? Were/are CFC's or halones really that hazardous or were we overreacting? There is a whole war going on about this issue.

    So is anthropogenic greenhouse gas effect from increasing CO2 really a problem? Not according to the straight physics concerning greenhouse gas effect. But yes- it is according to the alarmists, who look at the ice cores and Venus without a thorough understanding of what they are seeing and they invent all kind of positive feedback effects, none of which can be substantiated, whilst some have been falsified (Olavi Kärner - antipersistency study)

    Now about an explanation about the temperature devellopments the last 30 years.

    - The surface met-station report a general global warming in the 1990-1998 time frame of some 0,3-0,4 degrees

    - The weather balloons / satelite measurements do not agree with this trend.

    - The temperature has stabilized in the 1998-2004 timeframe.

    - Climate has been variable for as long as we can see.

    - Solar activity has been increasing the last decade. Sun spots were continuing to occur at high rate and did not follow the usual 11-years cycle:

    http://www.usefulinfo.co.uk/images/natural_factors.gif

    - Rural and urban weather stations have different characteristics. In the 1980-1990 timeframe many rural stations got closed, yielding a false trend.

    Check this:
    http://home.wanadoo.nl/bijkerk/trends2.JPG

    This is a representation of ALL stations in a radius of 1000 miles around a centre close to Omsk in Siberia. (data available). It contains the data of 20 urban stations and 9 rural stations. The area was semi-randomly selected to have several rural station still in service. Since the area is too big to assume an average temperature, I transferred the temperatures to the average of the 1980-1990 baseline. I believe that this is common practice.

    Now look at the four averages. Notice that the urban stations show the steepest warming trend whilst the four rural stations, still in service yields the lowest warming trend.

    See the red and blue 5th order curve fit waves. Red is the contribution of this part of the world to the average global temperature using all data and all stations, no matter what. IMO, Blue is the closest approximation to the real average trend as seen exclusively in the four continuous operating rural stations. Notice that it has only half the warming trend of the average of all stations.

    Consequently, the closing of the rural weather stations seem to have induced a false non existing warming signal of 50% of the total warming.

    So my conclusion is that global warming is mostly natural and we should not worry about extraordinary powers of carbon dioxide.
     
  10. Jul 27, 2004 #9

    FZ+

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    Note: The telegraph is the most rabidly right wing of the UK broadsheets, and typically represents industrial, business and other conservative interests. Nor is its science coverage a major authority in the matter. It publishing another article denying human factors cannot in any way be contrued as a global retreat, or other such baloney.
     
  11. Jul 31, 2004 #10
    Perhaps, FZ+, as it is so common use in the global warming alarmists department, you may not even be aware that you are using, one of the most serious fallacies.

    Would color or political orientation have anything to do with the truth? Or are we making the truth by judging people.
     
  12. Jul 31, 2004 #11
    Found this somewhere:

    Will the hype be terminated soon or has the war just started?
     
  13. Aug 5, 2004 #12
    Sceptics score

    Another blow for global warming (the anthropogenic greenhouse gas version that is):

    http://arxiv.org/ftp/physics/papers/0407/0407074.pdf

    Pretty clear I should say, but the global warming lingers on.
     
  14. Aug 7, 2004 #13
    If anyone is interested in the most comprehensive work against Global warming,
    here it is:
    (big file)


    Although this paper may be closer to the truth than anything else, you loose all credit if you publish it in a oil oriented bulletin. The obvious argumentum Ad Hominem is likely stronger than a thousand truths.

    honi soit qui mal y pense
     
  15. Aug 14, 2004 #14
    Well there is more growing concern about the concernmakers of global warming:
    I believe this is the first book about it.

    I'm going to feed the authors with a lot more for the second edition.

    I'm avoiding to spamming. Therefore I withhold the link that appeals to buying the book. However with this information it should be an easy google.
     
  16. Aug 31, 2004 #15
    of course . England is suffered the most by global warming
     
  17. Aug 31, 2004 #16
    Well the local warming of western Europe is hardly disputed. Many Europeans think that Western Europe is the world, consequently they call it "global warming".

    Anyway, the medieval vineyards -that perished by the Little Ice Age- are returning to Albinion. This should suggest that England has the right on a better climate anyway.

    Many folks in the States know that the new ice age is coming.
     
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