They say that lower-end CS/engineering jobs are moving to China/India

[avant-garde]

but does this apply as well to Math/CS/Engineering PhD work as well?

(I'd like to limit this dicussion to "higher-end" tasks, which normally require at least a Master's or even PhD)

- industry/business
- government
- academia

I talked to the dean of computer science at University of Texas and he says that American grads don't have to worry so much since only the "lower-end" jobs get sent to foreign countries. I did not understand this, since once the lower-end jobs are over there, won't the higher-end go as well eventually? Have we been seeing CS/Math/Engineering PhD's get their jobs taken away due to outsourcing?

I also wonder why we haven't "insourced" other professions as much (visas), such as accountancy, law, or medicine. Why mainly the technical jobs?

 

[TMFKAN64]

I'm in industry in Silicon Valley, and one thing that continually amazes me is how little the Indians and Chinese *here* think of the Indians and Chinese *there*. The general perception is that outsourcing is good for low-level tasks, but all of the real talent is still coming to the US.

However, this is slowly starting to change as salaries abroad rise with demand. Once salaries and opportunities are attractive enough there, there is a real risk that we can no longer draw the best and the brightest to this country... and at that point, I think there is a danger that we could see top-level positions in industry move abroad.

Government and academia, of course, are difficult if not impossible to outsource. Government tends to want US citizens, and academia isn't really moving because of the student population here.

As for other professions... accountancy and law require specialized local legal knowledge that would not necessarily be known by a foreign lawyer or accountant. Medicine has a high barrier to entry... they intentionally make it difficult for foreign medical grads to get a license in the US.

 

[avant-garde]

Lol yeah. So apparently, even a PhD in those subjects doesn't guarantee much anymore? I know that general programming/engineering jobs are a definite no-no, but the dean of comp sci at UT said something like "we make sure that our grads are prepared to tackle the high-end, design, creative jobs that Indian workers aren't capable of."

To me, this sounded like a crapload of BS..

 

[avant-garde]

or was he the dean of engineering... can't remember :/

 

[TMFKAN64]

So apparently, even a PhD in those subjects doesn't guarantee much anymore?

Well, life in general doesn't really come with guarantees...

I've never had a problem with a Ph.D. in CS, and although I see the potential for change, it's going surprisingly slowly. Outsourcing has been going on for years, but the top creative talent from other countries is still moving to the US. There are more stories about people moving back to their homelands these days, and that *is* troubling. But as long as we have a net influx of talent, I'd expect there to be plenty of top-level jobs in the US.

(Of course in all fairness, most of what I'm hearing about people *there* comes from people *here*...)

 

[Evo]

"we make sure that our grads are prepared to tackle the high-end, design, creative jobs that Indian workers aren't capable of." To me, this sounded like a crapload of BS..

Bolding mine.

That is absolutely wrong and insulting.

The BPO's offer an outsourcing option for tech support, that is the "area" they target. Some of the people are highly educated or going for higher degrees and taking the BPO option for the money.

Why would there be a call center manned by PhDs?

 

[MarkSheffield]

I have been a high-level engineer in the HDD & tape storage business for the past 25 years. I have always been told that engineering in the US was safe because the engine of innovation and creativity was here in the US. What I am seeing is that the whole HDD/storage industry is moving to Asia, not at some slow pace but in a torrent.

Do not delude yourself with the thought that whatever situation you have here in the US couldn't change. There are many, many highly qualified and talented engineers and scientists in China and India and they can do whatever job you're doing for about 1/4 the cost.

 

[turbo]

Out-sourcing comes with a cost. If you buy from Dell and you have technical problems, you already know. I bought a wide-aspect LCD monitor because I need to access astronomical images at high resolution while keeping other applications open. The first one that they sent me had bi-lateral color issues, and so did the second. The third and the fourth also featured clumps of very bright stuck pixels, which is not real handy when you're trying to discern visible evidence for galactic interaction using coarse survey images.

I got so mad at being sent "refurbished" monitors (merely repackaged inferior returned products) that I demanded to be upgraded to a real Dell troubleshooter, and I chewed him a new one. He started to defend Dell's "service" program and I shut him down by telling him that Dell's "service representatives" had told me that I needed to reboot my computer and de-gauss my LCD monitor. Idiots! I don't care whether they are based in the US, India, or anywhere else. The use of script-monkeys to provide front-line "customer service" is the sign of a very BAD company.

 

[hamster143]

One thing you HAVE TO remember is that, in China/India & such, massive wage inflation is a fact of life, and a job that could've cost 1/10th of what it cost over here in 2000, might cost significantly more today. Whereas entry-level high tech salaries in the U.S. have remained more or less stagnant during the last decade.

There's also a general principle: if you want to have job security, work on your people skills, work on your networking, find a niche for yourself ... if your employer can find a 18-year-old in Pakistan and spend $5000 to teach him enough C# and related stuff to make him do your job, your job security sucks. But your advantage is that you speak flawless English (something that the Pakistani guy will never learn), and you already have connections and you'll make more connections as you go on. Learn to manage other people and they'll never be able to outsource your job to Pakistan.

 

[rootX]

There's also a general principle: if you want to have job security, work on your people skills, work on your networking, find a niche for yourself ... if your employer can find a 18-year-old in Pakistan and spend $5000 to teach him enough C# and related stuff to make him do your job, your job security sucks. But your advantage is that you speak flawless English (something that the Pakistani guy will never learn), and you already have connections and you'll make more connections as you go on. Learn to manage other people and they'll never be able to outsource your job to Pakistan.

Not true.





The goal of companies is to serve their customers not Americans/Japanese..

 

[avant-garde]

What happens when wages become similar in the US, India, and China?

Is that a "natural" solution for all the outsourcing, and then will it be safe to become a high-level CS/engineer in the US?

(I think if I go that route and obtain a CS PhD, it will be about 10 years from now)

 

[Evo]

One thing you HAVE TO remember is that, in China/India & such, massive wage inflation is a fact of life, and a job that could've cost 1/10th of what it cost over here in 2000, might cost significantly more today. Whereas entry-level high tech salaries in the U.S. have remained more or less stagnant during the last decade.

There's also a general principle: if you want to have job security, work on your people skills, work on your networking, find a niche for yourself ... if your employer can find a 18-year-old in Pakistan and spend $5000 to teach him enough C# and related stuff to make him do your job, your job security sucks. But your advantage is that you speak flawless English (something that the Pakistani guy will never learn), and you already have connections and you'll make more connections as you go on. Learn to manage other people and they'll never be able to outsource your job to Pakistan.

That's not how it works, an employer doesn't look for an individual in another country to train and employ. Countries like India and the Phillipines have companies that hire very intelligent, well educated people that speak English, then when a US company contracts with that outsourcing company, then certain employees are trained in that US company's products. There are high end and low end outsourcing companies. The high end ones, you can't tell they aren't native English speakers, they are that good.

Since the cost of living is so low in those countries, even at the high wages they earn there, it is still much lower than what a US employeee would be paid. I have had experiences with dumber than dirt US techs and highly intelligent foreign techs. I'll take the highly intelligent foreign techs.

 

[Astronuc]

GE seems to bucking the trend.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10669235/1/ge-insourcing-shows-manufacturing-trend.html

BOSTON (TheStreet) -- There's compelling evidence that manufacturers with extended supply chains into low-cost countries may be planning to mitigate risks by moving some work nearer or into the U.S.

In June, General Electric(GE Quote) Chief Executive Officer Jeffery Immelt announced the company's intentions to bring work back into the country from which it had famously outsourced work over the past 20 years. "In some areas, we have outsourced too much. We plan to 'insource' capabilities like aviation-component manufacturing and software development," he said.

This announcement was important for two reasons. First, this statement came from the company of "Neutron Jack" Welch, who had helped lead the off-shoring charge in the first place. Second, the sheer size of GE meant that such a strategy, if pursued, would have a rippling effect among its myriad suppliers and partners.

. . . .

I've had recent experience of receiving data generated in Korea or Brazil for a high tech US manufacturing company with whom I was working. The engineers overseas are as capable as any engineer in the US, but their cost is lower. Simple economics.

As standards of living rise in China, India, Brazil, . . . . , the wages/salaries will increase and the cost advantage will decrease.

For extended supply chains, it's sometimes beneficial to have production or supply closer to home or market.

I recently had to do an authentication with Microsoft. The online process didn't work, and I was automatically switched to a person in India. The person was much more effective than the automated system I had been using.

 

[Evo]

I found out that some of my company's accounting offices are in the Phillipines, they are not outsourced, they are company employees. I always have fun finding out where everyone I work with are. It turns out that our OUTSOURCED work is in CANADA! Damn Canadians stealing our jobs.

 

[Astronuc]

We have a very successful export market.

Money is our number 1 export, and jobs number 2.

 

[avant-garde]

OK guys. I guess I'll go for being a doctor or lawyer (which, about 95% of the kids these days want to be... :/ ).

Even if the cost advantage of outsourcing decreases, I highly doubt going the CS/engineering route is a good idea for me. I heard from some Indian adults that over in India there is actually a SHORTAGE of these jobs, and that companies hire way more people than they actually need. (some sit around doing nothing for long periods of time).

So, even if outsourcing stops, those surplus workers in India or elsewhere are probably going to come over here, but the point is I don't see much future for kids my age who want to go the CS/engineering path. :(

 

[rootX]

OK guys. I guess I'll go for being a doctor or lawyer (which, about 95% of the kids these days want to be... :/ ).

Even if the cost advantage of outsourcing decreases, I highly doubt going the CS/engineering route is a good idea for me. I heard from some Indian adults that over in India there is actually a SHORTAGE of these jobs, and that companies hire way more people than they actually need. (some sit around doing nothing for long periods of time).

So, even if outsourcing stops, those surplus workers in India or elsewhere are probably going to come over here, but the point is I don't see much future for kids my age who want to go the CS/engineering path. :(

Nonsense.

 

[hamster143]

So, even if outsourcing stops, those surplus workers in India or elsewhere are probably going to come over here,

They are already coming over here as fast as they can. There aren't enough domestic workers interested in CS/engineering jobs. But there is a quota on the number of high-tech workers American companies are allowed to bring to the United States. In good years, the annual quota is completely exhausted within the first week.

The United States is a strange country. Sensible countries (like Canada) promote immigration of intelligent, educated workers. The United States sets a tough quota on the number of educated workers (65,000 a year), and accepts three or four times that number of family-based immigrants from Mexico and Philippines, many of whom never even finished high school.

 

[avant-garde]

Nonsense.

thanks but why?

 

[avant-garde]

rootX, could you give us a reason why it is 'nonsense' rather than uttering the word?

 

[Leptos]

Do not delude yourself with the thought that whatever situation you have here in the US couldn't change. There are many, many highly qualified and talented engineers and scientists in China and India and they can do whatever job you're doing for about 1/4 the cost.

The problem is that China and India are growing way too quickly and they have much larger populations plus their culture and society is setup in a way where it benefits the best students rather than most of the students. In USA the education system is setup in way to benefit the average Joe more than the extremely gifted which will probably, eventually, result in USA having less talented people available for jobs compared to China or India.

 

[Klockan3]

thanks but why?

I think he means that it is nonsense that there is no future in engineering for you. Engineering jobs is not a zero sum game. The more the standard of living is raised over the world the greater the demand for technological products will be and thus the higher the demand for engineers will be. But of course the more who gets a high standard of living the more gets educated and thus the more engineers they get.

China/India are just way behind with their social development, once they start to get closer their wages will not be much lower than yours so there will be no point in going overseas for them or for companies to continue outsourcing.

You should have no problems at all with a CS or Eng major, what you should be careful about is trying to get a law/medicine degree but faining and being stuck with an all but useless social science degree.

The problem is that China and India are growing way too quickly and they have much larger populations plus their culture and society is setup in a way where it benefits the best students rather than most of the students. In USA the education system is setup in way to benefit the average Joe more than the extremely gifted which will probably, eventually, result in USA having less talented people available for jobs compared to China or India.

I would argue that it is the other way around. With our system we lose most within maths and physics, but their strict methods is able to teach almost everyone through heinous amounts of repetition.

 

[edpell]

It is basic capitalism -- supply and demand. As the supply of Ph.D. globally increases the value of a Ph.D. will decrease. If you believe that people in other locations are mentally inferior then do not worry. If you know many smart people from many locations you know that Ph.D.s like PCs are becoming a commodity product that no longer commands a high price.

 

[parkland]

I think this whole argument is slightly being over analysed.

This all comes down to a supply and demand issue.

Once upon a time, computer tech jobs were sought after, and high paying. Most of my friends went to school to grab computer job's. Guess what...none of them really went anywhere, unless you call 18$/hour progress for 3 years of university. Too many kids at the time became talented, and the demand dropped right off. Sure, there are still guys making it big in that industry, but not in a cash cow way like before.

I work part time on oil drilling rigs, and have a solar power business at home, and also work on peoples computers "on the side" LOL, and I'm pretty sure I make a lot more than any of my friends, and I've not even graduated high school.

The problem with losing jobs overseas, is that as a company, I import lots of solar equipment from china, and it helps my business greatly. Not only is the product very competitively priced, but they go through hoops to get things done - something I did not experience buying from north american companies.
If I need parts bad enough, I get them express shipped, and at my door in a week. This is only slightly longer than north american shipping, and a little more shipping cost.
On top of that, the equipment I use costs roughly half of what similar equipment costs here, and has the latest innovations and runs 100%. Again, not something I found buying from north american distributors, who thought a price premium was deserved for these "special" parts, that were really next to outdated.

To be successful, a person needs to be good at many things. I've seen a lot of people end up with degrees that are so stupid they can barely roll another joint.

It's easier and easier now to go to school, so more go than they did years ago. I can think of some really smart successful people without school behind them, and some real dingbats that went to school and did really good, but just don't seem to be making it very far.

Theres a huge difference between book smart, and "real life" smart.

 

[Zantra]

It's supply and demand, quite simply. But if you're only in it for the money, go a different route or you'll hate it in 5 years when you realize no paycheck can make up for the lack of interest you have in your vocation. Cubicle hell can be worse than gulag, if you let it be.

A Phd in IT is useless and pointless, unless you're going to be a computer scientist. If you want to be a programmer, bachelors is the way to go. Or just get an MBA. Degrees in this field are useless because by the time you finish your degree, the stuff you learned in school is outdated. Certifications are taken over any degree, unless you're management.

If you're truly intelligent and motivated, a degree will not be the deciding factor in your career, but if you are intelligent you will realize that a degree will open doors you would not otherwise get to walk through. It just takes an already great person and maximizes their potential. If you are average, a degree will make you better than the average guy next to you, but it will not put you at the top.

Rambiling here, but agree nowadays that competition is global, a degree isn't the automatic road to riches that it was 20 years ago, and if you want to truly set yourself apart, be willing to go that extra mile that everyone else isn't. Get that certification, learn a second language, minor in business to augment science skills, and don't assume that a 3.5+ GPA alone will guarantee you 6 figures- because it won't-especially with the economy. Niche is the way to go if you want to excel. Don't be a jack of all trades, but the the absolute master of whatever you choose to focus on.

It would not shock me if some day they created a degree above PhD to signify humanity's knowledge curve. Either that or some day you'll need a PhD to work at Burger King

 

[jobyts]

May be I got this TED talk link from someone in PF. This video is very relevant to this discussion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iG9CE55wbtY

 

[avant-garde]

^lolz

 

[CSUndergrad]

Hi, I stumbled across this thread (and forums) by accident, and I just wanted to give some insight since some of the statements may not be backed up factually. I've researched this topic a fair bit online, but beyond that am not an expert, so take it for what it's worth.

Offshoring (often confused with outsourcing, which isn't the same thing) jobs to India has been popular in the media basically since the dot-com bubble burst. Much of the "fear" articles you'll find online originate from around 2004. Despite the threats, in the years that followed, there is little proof that offshoring was a major threat to local engineers.

The confusing thing in all of this is figuring out exactly when "offshoring" is occurring. Disgruntled IT workers often say that offshoring isn't so much laying off people in one country and hiring them in another (although this has happened), but rather that all the growth is happening overseas (so basically all new-hires happen in India), leading to a gradual offshoring. There is no doubt that IT firms in India are growing, but this alone isn't necessarily proof that it is traditional "offshoring". Consider a company like Microsoft who wants to be a global company, they obviously want to sell to the Indian market, which can create many jobs for Americans. However, it is unrealistic for a company to expect to be global while keeping all their employees in only one country (think Toyota building auto plants in North America), so opening Indian offices may have nothing to do with trying to "offshore" work as much as just trying to grow as a global company. Why distinguish between the two? Because traditional offshoring for low cost work could continue indefinitely and thus is very threatening to local engineers. However, simply growing as a global company means that local jobs are probably safe.

Now, let's assume, considering my last paragraph, offshoring is occurring fairly rapidly. Even this doesn't equate to the disappearance of US engineering jobs. I believe the IT "shortage" is somewhat exaggerated, but we aren't churning out a ton of engineers these days, so it kind of makes sense that there will be more growth in developing nations where they are producing engineers. This alone isn't a problem as long as engineers looking for work in the US can still find it at good pay. That is to say, even if the percentage of the workforce is increasingly from overseas, the global IT sector may (and likely will)grow at the same time (and/or the employment may drop due to retirements and low college enrollment), so the situation at home could still be positive. The reason I believe this to be the case so far is the average software engineering salary is still very high for a bachelor's degree (over 80k I believe): if there was that much pressure it would make sense that salaries would start a rapid decline, which hasn't happened yet.

Now I have no way to predict the future, and offshoring is a concern to me. However, so far there is little proof that it is having a negative effect at home, and a lot of the "evidence" has been anecdotal (The IT worker who can't find work, which is tough to evaluate since we don't know if personally he's let his skills fall out of date, etc.) I won't say engineering is safe in a global economy; however, if we offshore all our engineering, total economic collapse is soon to follow. Engineering creates jobs, and if we lose our engineering ability, it will be like lemmings running off a cliff. The world won't need the US anymore. And for the record, firms are already offshoring some legal and accounting work to Indian firms, so don't think these jobs are safe either.

The current downturn has depressed the job market at home and increased the use of offshoring, which has increased the offshoring fears. We'll see in the next few years as the economy rebounds if they are justified or not. However, even in the down economy, I have a job lined up in which my total compensation should be around six figures. Many of my classmates already have jobs lined up despite the weak economy.

Maybe in five years I'll look back and realize the offshoring threats were real, but so far there is little proof of it and skilled engineers can make solid money out of college. With all the uncertainty now, I'm not sure if there are many "safe" areas to be in. What may be a good idea is take a CS degree, but choose electives that will line you up for legal or medical school (if that's possible with your program). Also, for what it's worth, the US Bureau of Labor expects a lot of growth for Software Engineers by 2016 (although these predictions were from before the economic collapse).

It's up to you, there is risk involved, but all things considered nowadays,engineering and mathematical degrees are leading to the best starting salaries out of college. The "no future in IT" has been muttered since the dot-com bubble burst. It may eventually turn out to be true, but if you choose a good school, work hard, and get some good experience I have trouble believing the threat is that imminent. A good software engineer won't be just a code monkey, but will spend time in meetings with business people and other stakeholders and require plenty of communication channels: that makes your job tougher to offshore.

So just make sure that you make up your mind on the facts (as tough as they may to be to find), not anecdotal based media stories. And don't automatically think there is no future in Engineering. I started school in 2005, right after the time that the offshoring fears were hitting full-swing (it would have been easy for me to select another major). Like I said, I haven't even graduated and have a job lined up for around six figures, at least in the short term doesn't seem like I made a bad choice. Best of luck in your decision!

 

[CSUndergrad]

A Phd in IT is useless and pointless, unless you're going to be a computer scientist. If you want to be a programmer, bachelors is the way to go. Or just get an MBA. Degrees in this field are useless because by the time you finish your degree, the stuff you learned in school is outdated. Certifications are taken over any degree, unless you're management.

A few problems here:

If what you learn in school is outdated when you graduate, you need to find a better program (don't look for the school that just teaches in the current "flavor of the week" language). While languages and techniques change and you always need to keep up once graduating, a good CS education lays a very important foundation. As much as technology changes, computer science doesn't evolve quite so rapidly. A good school will teach strong fundamentals (abstract away the ideas from the model language) so that you can apply them no matter what the future brings in terms of languages (which by the way, don't evolve all that fast either, how much development is still done using C?)

As for certifications, it depends who you want to work for. I know a couple companies I've worked for could care less about these certifications and care that you have a degree and are good with algorithms and have a strong fundamental knowledge. That said, if the person interviewing you has a bunch of certifications, they are probably likely to care more about it. Very few people I know in CS have certifications and many have jobs lined up: However, I'm sure there are jobs out there where certifications could help.

As for the PHD being useless, it depends. Obviously it makes a difference in academia (although professor jobs may not be that easy to get). But even in industry, some companies such as Google seem to love PHDs. Others would prefer you had spent the time in industry. Basically, there are research oriented jobs that want PHDs, but regularly engineering tasks, you are probably better off spending that time getting experience in the field. Some companies don't have dedicated researchers, so in those companies a PHD won't do you much good.

And no clue how an MBA can lay a foundation to be a programmer unless you do a ton of work on your own.