Tornado Outlook for Saturday: 60% Probability in Eastern Nebraska

[Andre]

Evo, Dlgoff

Better recheck the shelters

Updated Tornado Outlook for Saturday
Well, we've gone from bad to worse with the addition of maxed-out probabilities in eastern Nebraska and the extension of the hatching farther east.

Sixty percent is the highest the numbers can go. If you live in the hatched areas keep up on the weather tomorrow and tomorrow night!...

http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/

All the best.

 

[Evo]

Great, there are no shelters and I have no basement.

 

[turbo]

Great, there are no shelters and I have no basement.

Oh, no! Hide in the bathtub with FB.

 

[Lacy33]

Hi Evo,
Tell me please why there are no shelters or basements for people in parts of this country that are prone to dangerous weather? I would think this should be included in a building code.

Back when the storms went through LA, MO and other states, we had a dear friend who's town got a direct hit. They had no where to go. Why?
Thanks

 

[Evo]

Hi Evo,
Tell me please why there are no shelters or basements for people in parts of this country that are prone to dangerous weather? I would think this should be included in a building code.

Back when the storms went through LA, MO and other states, we had a dear friend who's town got a direct hit. They had no where to go. Why?
Thanks

Hi Lacy!

I've asked that question many times.

 

[Lacy33]

Hi Lacy!

I've asked that question many times.

What does the local government say about protecting the people?

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Check the wind map!
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=592109

 

[Lacy33]

Well OK!~
But I saw the Wizard of Oz and I know that if your local government does nothing to protect the peoples, the peoples and all their money are going to end up in the Land Of Oz next door to me! here in the land of Oz

 

[BobG]

Hi Evo,
Tell me please why there are no shelters or basements for people in parts of this country that are prone to dangerous weather? I would think this should be included in a building code.

Back when the storms went through LA, MO and other states, we had a dear friend who's town got a direct hit. They had no where to go. Why?
Thanks

I guess it depends on which part of Louisiana you're talking about, but there's a good reason houses in southern Lousiana don't have basements - same reason most people are 'buried' in above ground tombs. In fact, when the water table rises due to flooding, it's not unheard of for below ground coffins to have enough bouyancy to pop up through the ground.

Generally speaking, a person only has about a 1 in 4.5 million chance of dying in a tornado, so it's not really worth protecting against. You have a better chance of being struck by lightning (1 in 835,000). Of course, you actually have a better chance of being killed by hail (1 in about 700,000) than by lightning.

The bad news is that tornadoes are usually formed in major thunderstorms, and major thunderstorms are usually accompanied by lightning and hail. So, maybe you do have a good reason to be afraid.

Personally, the way I handle fear during tornadoes is to concentrate on something else - worrying about whether I'm saving enough for retirement, for example.

Useless information - Top Ten States for your chances of being killed by weather:

1. Louisiana 1 in 49,330
2 Mississippi 1 in 112,700
3 Alaska 1 in 116,900
4 Wyoming 1 in 173,800
5 Missouri 1 in 182,900
6 Oklahoma 1 in 240,500
7 Arkansas 1 in 287,800
8 Kansas 1 in 290,300
9 Illinois 1 in 303,900
10 Utah 1 in 337,700

Keep in mind that one major disaster can skew a states statistics for average deaths for quite a while. But, the states in "tornado alley" do rate pretty high.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Strap yourself down Evo, I'll go run for help.

 

[Evo]

According to local weather, the worst day will be Sunday, but they're always wrong.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Dang! Sunday my area is under alert! My fiance will be in northern Missouri, I hope she will be ok!

 

[moonman239]

You guys might want to consider taking shelter at your local Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints meetinghouse. I'm a member and I know for a fact that they have pretty high building standards. They are so high, in fact, that the meetinghouses might be one of the least likely to be torn down by a natural disaster.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Turns out she's headed to Springfield MO tonight! That's near the red zone! :(

 

[Lacy33]

You guys might want to consider taking shelter at your local Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints meetinghouse. I'm a member and I know for a fact that they have pretty high building standards. They are so high, in fact, that the meetinghouses might be one of the least likely to be torn down by a natural disaster.

Well maybe NOT a "natural disaster" but what about an act of god?

 

[Evo]

Turns out she's headed to Springfield MO tonight! That's near the red zone! :(

Oh, that's near Joplin. That is the worst spot in MO.

 

[Evo]

Now it appears the storm track has shifted, southern MO is out of danger and DL and I are in the middle of it, according to weather.com, which is never right. They had a warning out this morning saying "HIGH TORNADO RISK - TAKE SHELTER NOW. But there's not a cloud in the sky. Then on the next page it says "mostly sunny today with 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms" SERIOUS TORNADO THREAT ISSUED" "5 MILLION LIVES AT RISK" RISK OF TORNADOES INCREASED

Last night the weatherman said there are new warnings now, they are "MASS DEVASTATION", "CATASTROPHIC", and "UNSURVIVABLE". Ok, you're watching tv and a weather alert pops up "UNSURVIVABLE TORNADO IN 5 MINUTES", what the heck are you supposed to do?

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/unsurvivable-tornado-warnings-aim-scare-16046020

 

[Lacy33]

Evo, I'm really sorry for all the times I made you mad. I want to say how beloved you are.
I will be reading on the roof and I will try and catch your big screen TV if it comes flying by.
I know you would want someone to have it that can not afford such a nice TV.
Thank you for everything.
BTW,
See Bob's post about your chances of getting wiped out.
I feel so much better since BOB posted and that means my friend did not loose everything like they think they did.
An It's my fault I meant to say TN.
Good luck dear lady.

 

[turbo]

Let's hope all our members in the danger zone escape unscathed, and that they keep us updated (hint, hint).

 

[Evo]

I've got my hall bath stocked with emergency stuff. I have a few daffy duck bandaids, (I keep forgetting to get a first aid kit). I have enough extra crunchy peanut butter to keep the FB and I going for days.

Evo Child promised to find a flashlight and working batteries. Her house has a basement.

It's not supposed to start until well after dark tonight. Always. During the night. Tornadoes love darkness.

Love you too Lacy! Thanks for the good wishes! :!)

 

[Evo]

Well, the weather channel (accurate and dependable, is that still their motto?) shows clear skies over me, except it's actually raining and windy right now.

 

[OmCheeto]

..windy...

Ahhh! Run Evo, Run!

I have a spare couch. Jump on an airplane, and go west young lady! West!

 

[Borek]

Generally speaking, a person only has about a 1 in 4.5 million chance of dying in a tornado, so it's not really worth protecting against. You have a better chance of being struck by lightning (1 in 835,000). Of course, you actually have a better chance of being killed by hail (1 in about 700,000) than by lightning.

You do understand that these stats are given for a typical human, and are unsuitable for Evo?

 

[turbo]

Evo = locus of evil = disaster magnet.

 

[turbo]

I've got my hall bath stocked with emergency stuff. I have a few daffy duck bandaids, (I keep forgetting to get a first aid kit). I have enough extra crunchy peanut butter to keep the FB and I going for days.

Evo Child promised to find a flashlight and working batteries. Her house has a basement.

It's not supposed to start until well after dark tonight. Always. During the night. Tornadoes love darkness.

Love you too Lacy! Thanks for the good wishes! :!)

Can you get to Evo Child's house? It would be a lot better to have a cellar to shelter in.

 

[Evo]

You do understand that these stats are given for a typical human, and are unsuitable for Evo?

Tonight we're due for damaging winds, large hail, lightning, and tornadoes.

Evo = locus of evil = disaster magnet.

OH *locus*, I thought you were calling me a locust. Like the Evil Mantis of the Apocaplypse, Zorak.

 

[turbo]

OH *locus*, I thought you were calling me a locust. Like the Evil Mantis of the Apocaplypse, Zorak.

Nope. Locus, as in a place in which things (good, evil, etc) can concentrate or converge. I'd feel a whole lot better if you could get to your daughter's place and shelter in the cellar. Lots of apartment/condo complexes are shoddy, because they are constructed by the contractors that submitted the lowest bids. Blown-out windows and damaged roofs are one thing - collapsing, pancaked structures are another thing entirely.

 

[DaveC426913]

But there's not a cloud in the sky. Then on the next page it says "mostly sunny today with 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms" SERIOUS TORNADO THREAT ISSUED"

Don't let clear skies mislead you. Tornadoes are dangerous precisely because they are fast-moving and large changes in weather fronts.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Generally speaking, a person only has about a 1 in 4.5 million chance of dying in a tornado, so it's not really worth protecting against.

But there are worse things than dying. A tornado could send you flying through the air and you might get scared. Or it could send you like a bullet though a window where the glass would shatter into a million pieces, one of which might cut your finger like a paper cut. Then again it might spin you around so hard you get dizzy. Or it could ... Hey Evo, you're not reading this are you?

 

[Lacy33]

Nope. Locus, as in a place in which things (good, evil, etc) can concentrate or converge. I'd feel a whole lot better if you could get to your daughter's place and shelter in the cellar. Lots of apartment/condo complexes are shoddy, because they are constructed by the contractors that submitted the lowest bids. Blown-out windows and damaged roofs are one thing - collapsing, pancaked structures are another thing entirely.

TURBO! Knock it off. I'm sure the local government will have made sure everything is up to code and all things are secure. Please Read Bob's post. The odds he says are more to getting hit by lightening. So don't scare this mom. Pleeease.
However since lightning can hit a house, is the bathroom the safest place when trying to keep safe from a storm containing hail, lightning and a possible wall cloud/ twister, in a town where the local government has made all sure all peoples are safe?
In the city I wondered if being in the kitchen or bathroom are safe in a thunder storm. Thanks

Evo, you will be fine.
Note: At 24 years old, it is possible to pull a king sized mattress over your child, birds in cage and self in far end of hallway.

 

[Evo]

Don't let clear skies mislead you. Tornadoes are dangerous precisely because they are fast-moving and large changes in weather fronts.

Actually the warnings were removed, the tornado threat is for tonight, there was nothing to "TAKE SHELTER NOW" from earlier, except maybe a sunburn. The 30% chance of isolated scattered showers was the correct forecast, of course that was on the 2nd page.

 

[turbo]

TURBO! Knock it off. I'm sure the local government will have made sure everything is up to code and all things are secure.

Sorry. I spent a few years in construction and worked as an inspector, clerk of the works, and superintendent during the construction of a large apartment complex. The owner of the complex had the architects fire me as inspector because I found too many structural defects in the buildings, and repairing them slowed down his project.

That Friday afternoon, I went to the Superintendent's office trailer to say good-bye to him and his assistant, and he told me to come back Monday morning. He hired me as an inspector/clerk for the prime contractor, and I kept rooting out problems for the next two years. I don't want to panic anybody, but corruption and payoffs are rampant in the construction industry, and there is a lot of sub-standard housing out there as a result. Talk to somebody who has been in the trenches, and you'll see.

 

[Evo]

But there are worse things than dying. A tornado could send you flying through the air and you might get scared. Or it could send you like a bullet though a window where the glass would shatter into a million pieces, one of which might cut your finger like a paper cut. Then again it might spin you around so hard you get dizzy. Or it could ... Hey Evo, you're not reading this are you?

What would I do without you Jimmy? :tongue2:

TURBO! Knock it off. I'm sure the local government will have made sure everything is up to code and all things are secure. Please Read Bob's post. The odds he says are more to getting hit by lightening. So don't scare this mom. Pleeease.
However since lightning can hit a house, is the bathroom the safest place when trying to keep safe from a storm containing hail, lightning and a possible wall cloud/ twister, in a town where the local government has made all sure all peoples are safe?
In the city I wondered if being in the kitchen or bathroom are safe in a thunder storm. Thanks

I've been hit by lightning through both plumbing and a corded phone (I recovered my hearing), apparently, according to a documentary on people getting hit by lightning, these count as lightning hits. Then the third hit to the house just fried everything in the house, but I wasn't touching anything at the time. I'm sticking close to the toilet if I have to go in.

Evo, you will be fine.
Note: At 24 years old, it is possible to pull a king sized mattress over your child, birds in cage and self in far end of hallway.

I told Evo child to get heavy covers to cover up with and intend to get her my old mattress for her basement for another time. Of course she will probably refuse, but then storms terrify her, so maybe she'll agree. I'd feel safer for her.

 

[Lacy33]

Sorry. I spent a few years in construction and worked as an inspector, clerk of the works, and superintendent of a large apartment complex. The owner of the complex had the architects fire me as inspector because I found too many structural defects in the buildings, and repairing them slowed down his project.

That Friday afternoon, I went to the Superintendent's office trailer to say good-bye to him and his assistant, and he told me to come back Monday morning. He hired me as an inspector/clerk for the prime contractor, and I kept rooting out problems for the next two years. I don't want to panic anybody, but corruption and payoffs are rampant in the construction industry, and there is a lot of sub-standard housing out there as a result. Talk to somebody who has been in the trenches, and you'll see.

Turbo, I know. Why do you think I am yanking so hard here and I am sick. (Some twister up and took my thermometer.)

My dear husband is an engineer and whatever and worked in construction management too. Perhaps he was involved in projects bigger than an apartment building but I hear of how things get worked out and people loose lives. Trenches? Yeah, we've been there. That is why we are concerned for the saftey of people when the weather is getting worse.
I have to go pass out now.
Happy, Evo, you will be tanning and not digging out from under.
Hope all PEOPLES are safe tonight when they COULD otherwise be.

 

[turbo]

Turbo, I know. Why do you think I am yanking so hard here and I am sick. (Some twister up and took my thermometer.)

My dear husband is an engineer and whatever and worked in construction management too. Perhaps he was involved in projects bigger than an apartment building but I hear of how things get worked out and people loose lives. Trenches? Yeah, we've been there. That is why we are concerned for the saftey of people when the weather is getting worse.
I have to go pass out now.
Happy, Evo, you will be tanning and not digging out from under.
Hope all PEOPLES are safe tonight when they COULD otherwise be.

The apartment construction project that I oversaw was 10 buildings, each containing 16-32 apartments (big, by Maine standards) but they were very, very under-designed, IMO. In severe weather, those buildings could collapse like houses of cards. Stacked vertical stud walls with minimal cross-bracing and other structural problems that would make any experienced constructor cringe. City inspectors probably just took their pay-offs and looked away. Working for the prime contractor, I got more threats from sub-contractors than I had ever imagined. The more corners they could cut, the more money they could make.