Two Poisson processes in Series

In summary, to determine the distribution of total time (t) to go from A to C, we can use the basic rules of probability and calculate Pac(t) as k1k2exp(-k1t1-k2t2). This is because the individual time distributions from A to B and B to C, Pab(t1) and Pbc(t2), respectively, follow a Poisson distribution with parameters k1 and k2. The mean of this distribution can be expressed in terms of k1 and k2.
  • #1
Chinnu
24
0

Homework Statement



Imagine you want to go from A to C via B. So you have two steps: A to B and B to C. Let's assume the time taken (t1) to go from A to B is Poisson and is given by Pab(t1) and the for B to C is t2 and the distribution is Pbc(t2). You are given:

Pab(t1) = k1exp(-k1t1) and Pbc(t2) = k2exp(-k2t1)

So the total time to go from A to C is t = t1 + t2

Derive the distribution of t, that is, find Pac(t). Also find the mean of this distribution in terms of k1 and k2.

Homework Equations



We can use the basic rules of probability,

The Attempt at a Solution



Is it as simple as this?:

Pac(t) = k1Pab(t1) + k2Pbc(t2)

or is it:

Pac(t) = k1k2exp(-k1t1-k2t2)
 
Last edited:
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  • #2
I am leaning towards the second equation I wrote above, as, if you take the case that k1 = k2 = 1, then the resulting equation is that of a normal poisson with t = t1 + t2.

I only want to know if this thinking is correct, I know how to continue from there.
 

1. What is a "Two Poisson processes in Series"?

A "Two Poisson processes in Series" refers to a statistical model where two independent Poisson processes are combined sequentially. This means that events from the first process occur first, followed by events from the second process.

2. What is a Poisson process?

A Poisson process is a statistical model that describes the occurrence of events over a continuous time interval. It is often used to model rare or random events, such as accidents, arrivals of customers, or radioactive decay.

3. How do you calculate the probability of events in a Two Poisson processes in Series?

The probability of an event occurring in a Two Poisson processes in Series can be calculated by multiplying the individual probabilities of each process. This assumes that the processes are independent of each other.

4. What is the difference between "Two Poisson processes in Series" and "Two Poisson processes in Parallel"?

The main difference between these two models is the order in which events occur. In "Two Poisson processes in Series", events from the first process occur first, followed by events from the second process. In "Two Poisson processes in Parallel", events from both processes occur simultaneously.

5. What are some real-life applications of the Two Poisson processes in Series?

Some real-life applications of the Two Poisson processes in Series include modeling the arrival of customers at a bank, the occurrence of accidents on a highway, or the spread of a disease in a population. It can also be used in risk assessment and forecasting in various industries.

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