Ukrainian mess

  • News
  • Thread starter Borek
  • Start date
282
132
Borg
Science Advisor
Gold Member
1,846
2,178
Vanadium 50
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
Education Advisor
23,474
5,922
Russia's #136 is not a whole lot better than Ukraine's #142. I would be skeptical of any argument offered that the Russian's are out to "save" the Ukrainians from corruption in their government. Or, taking a line from Animal House, "They can't do that to our pledges. Only we can do that to our pledges!"
 
282
132
Ironic that a former penal colony is now one of the least corrupt countries in the world.
You see - resocialization works :D

Russia's #136 is not a whole lot better than Ukraine's #142. I would be skeptical of any argument offered that the Russian's are out to "save" the Ukrainians from corruption in their government. Or, taking a line from Animal House, "They can't do that to our pledges. Only we can do that to our pledges!"
I think that Russia can point out that according to TI data Ukraine fit much more in Eurasia Union than in the EU. ;)
 
mheslep
Gold Member
254
728
Russian officials are making increasingly threatening statements about nuclear war that require either a clarity of policy from the US administration or an urgency of action. The absence of either leaves only, I think, denial.

Putin said:
"We are hoping that our partners will understand the imprudence of attempts to blackmail Russia, [and] remember what discord between large nuclear powers can do to strategic stability."
Russian Foreign Minister Ivanov said:
"In the absence of political dialogue, with mutual mistrust reaching historical highs, the probability of unintended accidents, including those involving nuclear weapons, is getting more and more real."
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said:
on Jan. 27 that if Russia is cut off from the Swift international payment system as punishment for its actions in Ukraine, its response “will know no limits.”
Andrei Kostin said:
excluding Russia from Swift would mean “war.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/11167192/Vladimir-Putin-issues-new-large-nuclear-power-warning-to-West.html
http://www.wsj.com/articles/david-satter-putins-shaky-hold-on-power-1423009255
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21641278-russian-president-stepping-up-both-war-ukraine-and-his-confrontational-rhetoric

Edit: Was I hasty? The US President did in fact speak recently on serious threats:
Obama said:
And no challenge -- no challenge -- poses a greater threat to future generations than climate change.
Repetition was used here, I suppose, to either i) catch up those who missed it the first time by playing with their phones, or ii) to indicate something like "don't bother me about anything else, as I have spoken" - a fair interpretation given the 85 I/me/my/mine self-references in the speech.

Somewhere below the greatest challenge -- the greatest challenge -- of climate change, Ukraine was referenced, once:
We're upholding the principle that bigger nations can't bully the small -- by opposing Russian aggression, supporting Ukraine's democracy, and reassuring our NATO allies.
 
Last edited:
Dotini
Gold Member
618
229
Excellent post, mheslep.
All signs point to a tightening of the noose. I'm sure Victoria Nuland is feeling quite chuffed!
 
282
132
Russian officials are making increasingly threatening statements about nuclear war that require either a clarity of policy from the US administration or an urgency of action. The absence of either leaves only, I think, denial.
We hear such defiant nuclear related threats from time to time, so it's not specially impressive. (this time serious???)

Anyway, cutting them from SWIFT I consider as bad idea. Let them pay their debts first...
 
mheslep
Gold Member
254
728
We hear such defiant nuclear related threats from time to time, so it's not specially impressive. (this time serious???)
Please show one such threat, since the collapse of the former Soviet Union from any of the world's NPT recognized nuclear weapons states, and before the Crimea annex.
 
mheslep
Gold Member
254
728
Anyway, cutting them from SWIFT I consider as bad idea. Let them pay their debts first...
Europe should probably surrender; this independent nation and international Westphalian sovereignty system is antagonistic.
 
282
132
Please show one such threat, since the collapse of the former Soviet Union from any of the world's NPT recognized nuclear weapons states, and before the Crimea annex.
Medvietiev, 2011:

“If the enumerated measures are insufficient, the Russian Federation will deploy in the country’s west and south modern strike weapons systems which guarantee the destruction of MD’s European component. One such step will be deployment of the ‘Iskander’ missile system in the Kaliningrad special region.”

OK, that were (presumably) threats with conventional missile.

source: https://russiandefpolicy.wordpress.com/2011/11/

Putin 2008:
""It's horrible to say and even horrible to think that, in response to the deployment of such facilities in Ukrainian territory, which cannot theoretically be ruled out, Russia could target its missile systems at Ukraine. Imagine this for a second. That is what worries us,"
(this was interpreted by the Guardian as nuclear threat)
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/13/russia.putin

For me it looks as barely more than business as usual. Except no one in the West cared about prior threats.
 
mheslep
Gold Member
254
728
For me it looks as barely more than business as usual. Except no one in the West cared about prior threats.
Thanks for the references Czcibor, but I see a strong distinction between the actual text of those earlier comments and what's actually been said recently by Putin, Ivanov, and the Russian PM, both in terms of nuclear vs conventional response, and also in terms of who the threats are against, previously just neighbors, now all of Europe and the US.
 
The threats are empty because thousands, maybe even tens of thousands of children, wives, grandchildren etc of Russian elite live in various Western countries.

And Obama and other Western leaders do appear to act sensibly, letting Russian economy to crash, slowly enough so that there is no single sudden event which looks like an "attack". West just stopped investing in Russia, and since its debts are larger that its reserves, it can't pay them off without reforming its corrupt klepto-economy, and Putin can't reform it because that is the very system which keeps him in power.
 
Dotini
Gold Member
618
229
Leaving aside the geopolitics for a moment, here is a quick peek at some technical and tactical data of interest.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31146595
_80811451_ukrstrelanewreut.jpg
A rebel Strela-10 air defence system on the streets of Donetsk
 
lisab
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
Gold Member
1,832
616
Thanks for the references Czcibor, but I see a strong distinction between the actual text of those earlier comments and what's actually been said recently by Putin, Ivanov, and the Russian PM, both in terms of nuclear vs conventional response, and also in terms of who the threats are against, previously just neighbors, now all of Europe and the US.
I don't discount Putin's previous threats because they were targeted at "just neighbors" - why do you?

A threat is a threat.
 
mheslep
Gold Member
254
728
I don't discount Putin's previous threats because they were targeted at "just neighbors" - why do you?

A threat is a threat.
I'm drawing a distinction between Putin's previous military aggression against neighbors (Crimea, Ukraine, Georgia, Chechnya, the list getting long) with the like of little green men, and Russian threats with nuclear weapons since the Ukrainian invasion. I don't mean to diminish Russia's border countries, rather I mean to point that out that they are "just" the ones that have been attacked, no others so far. I dismiss neither (armed border incursions and nuclear threats), but they are not the same thing and require very different responses.
 
Last edited:
Dotini
Gold Member
618
229
Meetings are taking place this weekend amongst Hollande, Merkel and Putin, with Biden, Poroshenko and various European Defense Ministers on the sidelines.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11397900/Ukraine-crisis-Do-not-try-to-scare-Putin-warns-Merkel.html

Is there a Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis emerging that wants to ease sanctions and avoid weapons shipments to Ukraine? Are the US media, Congress and elements of the administration banging the drums for new weapons shipments? Somehow I don't see a united western position anymore.

Edit: Meanwhile, on the ground, a gritty narrative of the battle for Debaltseve, a strategic railway junction.
http://news.yahoo.com/rebels-ukrainian-forces-agree-humanitarian-corridor-082121426.html [Broken]
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Astronuc
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
18,543
1,685
Ukraine leader shows off captured Russian military IDs
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-leader-shows-off-captured-russian-military-ids-160048355.html

Of course, Russia denies Russian troops are in Ukraine. Or are they just advisors, or observers? :oldeyes:

Well - I suppose they could have taken a wrong turn in Albuquerque. It happened to Bugs Bunny all the time.


I sure hope the EU and US don't agree to territorial cession to stop Russian aggression - and violation of Ukraine's sovereignty. I'm thinking a Fox commentator might be right that we need another Winston Churchill, not a bunch of Neville Chamberlains.


One doesn't stand around and talk about fighting a raging fire. One fights the fire, extinguishs it, then talks about it.
 
Last edited:
Dotini
Gold Member
618
229
Poroshenko is holding passports, which I am informed Russian soldiers are not required to possess. So I think the polite term for these troops is "volunteers".:cool:
proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fpp.vk.me%2Fc624122%2Fv624122565%2F17546%2FbE6QioUm2P0.jpg
 
Dotini
Gold Member
618
229
IMO, it's time to start thinking very clearly about whether or not we want total war with Russia.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/06/vladimir-putin-west-divisions-war-ukraine
Fear of Vladimir Putin grows in EU capitals amid spectre of ‘total war’
Analysis: That Angela Merkel has gone to Moscow speaks to the sudden gravity of the situation in east Ukraine

%2FPix%2Fpictures%2F2015%2F2%2F6%2F1423246312332%2Ff725db74-684d-4204-9e41-899fbe0cfc03-1020x612.jpe

President Vladimir Putin with Chancellor Angela Merkel and President François Hollande in Moscow for an urgent meeting over Ukraine. Photograph: Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP
Ian Traynor, Europe editor

Friday 6 February 2015 11.12 EST

In Brussels and other European capitals, the fear of Vladimir Putin is becoming palpable. The mood has changed in a matter of weeks from one of handwringing impotence over Ukraine to one of foreboding.

The anxiety is encapsulated in the sudden rush to Moscow by Angela Merkel and François Hollande. To senior figures closely involved in the diplomacy and policymaking over Ukraine, the Franco-German peace bid is less a hopeful sign of a breakthrough than an act of despair.

“There’s nothing new in their plan, just an attempt to stop a massacre,” said one senior official.

Carl Bildt, the former Swedish foreign minister, said a war between Russia and the west was now quite conceivable. A senior diplomat in Brussels, echoing the broad EU view, said arming the Ukrainians would mean war with Russia, a war that Putin would win.

Edit: Ukraine's currency has collapsed 50% in the last two days.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/02/06/ukraines-currency-has-fallen-50-percent-in-two-days/
 
Last edited:
Astronuc
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
18,543
1,685
Russia warns US arms to Ukraine will cause 'colossal damage' to ties
http://news.yahoo.com/russia-warns-us-arms-kiev-cause-colossal-damage-004307353.html

Obama's Ukraine policy at crossroads as fighting rages on
http://news.yahoo.com/obamas-ukraine-policy-crossroads-fighting-rages-004700222.html [Broken]

WASHINGTON/MUNICH (Reuters) - Russian-backed rebels' violent offensive in eastern Ukraine leaves President Barack Obama with perplexing and urgent choices, but aides say he will exercise his typical caution in deciding his next move.

Should Obama provide lethal weaponry to the Western-backed Kiev government to staunch Europe's worst conflict in two decades? Many U.S. lawmakers and some of Obama's own advisors are calling for that step, but it risks igniting a proxy war with Russia and driving a wedge between Washington and western Europe.
Or wait until Russia has defact annexed eastern Ukraine? It's about Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. EU and US should have acted more carefully 2 or more years ago, before Russia entered Crimea. Now the risk too little and too late.


Meanwhile - Merkel takes peace plan to Obama
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31279621

Obama, Merkel rally behind diplomacy in Ukraine conflict
http://news.yahoo.com/merkel-brief-obama-four-party-talks-ukraine-crisis-053358535.html [Broken]

and EU delays sanctions by a week to support Ukraine peace talks
http://news.yahoo.com/eu-backs-ukraine-peace-drive-hawks-urge-no-110022139.html

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union delayed putting more Ukrainian separatists and Russians on its sanctions list on Monday to give a Franco-German peace plan for Ukraine time to work.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
282
132
To end all discussions about cluster munitions. Soviet large-caliber MLRS usually carry cluster warheads. Any time any side uses such MLRS, they will employ cluster munitions, since they simply have no unitary warheads in storage.

Cluster munitions are not universally banned, even though it is often (incorrectly) claimed they are.

Here is today's video of Kramatorsk (held by Ukrainian forces) being hit by Smerch MLRS:

 
Last edited:
Dotini
Gold Member
618
229
WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — The United States is to be blamed for Ukraine’s use of cluster bombs since it hasn’t provided the country with different weapons, US Senator John McCain, who serves as a Chairman of the Senate Committee on Armed Services, told Sputnik on Thursday.

“I think that if we had provided them with the weapons they need, they wouldn’t have felt they had to use cluster bombs. So, it’s partially our fault,” McCain said.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150205/1017844947.html#ixzz3RM46bapW



Edit: Extremely ugly rumors persist on social media that 5000-6000 Ukraine troops are trapped in the Debaltseve pocket. If true, they would make great bargaining chips. If they are eliminated from the fight, this could imply the fall of Debaltseve within days, and perhaps the collapse of the entire Ukraine front line within weeks.
 
Last edited:

Related Threads for: Ukrainian mess

  • Last Post
3
Replies
61
Views
7K
  • Last Post
Replies
3
Views
495
  • Last Post
Replies
24
Views
5K
  • Last Post
Replies
2
Views
3K
  • Last Post
Replies
4
Views
4K
  • Last Post
3
Replies
70
Views
9K
  • Last Post
Replies
16
Views
3K
Replies
31
Views
3K
Top