Ukrainian mess

[Astronuc]

Ukraine crisis prompts German debate on restocking military
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-crisi...te-restocking-military-134941862--sector.html

 

[Astronuc]

This may deserve a separate thread about Putin, but http://news.yahoo.com/prominent-russian-opposition-figure-boris-nemtsov-shot-dead-223512822.html

So Russia is a classic dictatorship/oligarchy, complete with eliminating opposition through assassination or execution. Kind of like Iraq under Saddam, or Chile under Pinochet, . . . .

Update - https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/russian-opposition-leader-a-putin-critic-shot-dead.800417/

 

[Czcibor]

This may deserve a separate thread about Putin, but http://news.yahoo.com/prominent-russian-opposition-figure-boris-nemtsov-shot-dead-223512822.html

So Russia is a classic dictatorship/oligarchy, complete with eliminating opposition through assassination or execution. Kind of like Iraq under Saddam, or Chile under Pinochet, . . . .

Well, it may be a result of sanctions and cheap oil that no longer polonium was used.

 

[Dotini]

This may deserve a separate thread about Putin, but http://news.yahoo.com/prominent-russian-opposition-figure-boris-nemtsov-shot-dead-223512822.html

So Russia is a classic dictatorship/oligarchy, complete with eliminating opposition through assassination or execution. Kind of like Iraq under Saddam, or Chile under Pinochet, . . . .

Did you hear the story of how Aaron Burr, Jefferson's Vice-President, executed poor Alexander Hamilton in a one-sided duel?

As an occasional reader of Sun Tzu and Machiavelli, I've come to the sneaking suspicion that might makes right and the ends justify the means.

 

[Astronuc]

Did you hear the story of how Aaron Burr, Jefferson's Vice-President, executed poor Alexander Hamilton in a one-sided duel?

Please provide a reference for this assertion. It doesn't seem consistent with other historical accounts.
For example - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burr–Hamilton_duel#The_duel

In the case of Nemtsov, he was clearly assassinated by all accounts.

 

[russ_watters]

Regardless of the accuracy, it has no relevance. It was 200 years ago.

 

[Dotini]

Please provide a reference for this assertion. It doesn't seem consistent with other historical accounts.
For example - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burr–Hamilton_duel#The_duel

In the case of Nemtsov, he was clearly assassinated by all accounts.

The wiki account seems right enough. Burr, the challenger, intended to kill and did. Hamilton, who did not really want to fight, shot first but errantly. Some called it murder, though of course it wasn't. I thought the affair relevant to mention, as an example of how men in positions of leadership can put things like their manly honor above the laws of church and state.

 

[Astronuc]

Ukraine industry seeks ties with West, but buckles in crisis
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-industry-seeks-ties-west-buckles-crisis-072355202.html

KIEV, Ukraine (AP) — Volodymyr Kuzovkin's office is less than 50 miles from the European Union, but for him and his factory, the EU is a world away.

Despite Ukraine's desperation to integrate with Europe, a desire so strong it sparked the protests that ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych last year, much of Ukrainian business remains wedded to Soviet-era practices even as it is buffeted by a very modern economic crisis.
. . . .

 

[Astronuc]

Euphoria fades in Crimea after a year of Russian rule
http://news.yahoo.com/euphoria-fades-crimea-russian-rule-131258304.html

. . . .
"Ordinary Russians lost out with the annexation of Crimea," said Sergei, a construction goods retailer from Kiev who moved to Simferopol last year with his wife and children after protests that turned violent in the Ukrainian capital.

"Across the whole of Russia, prices are going up, there are sanctions, the rouble has devalued," he said, closing the kitchen window to stop his neighbors overhearing.

Such discontent has not prevented the celebrations which began on Monday in Crimea, the anniversary of the referendum which showed 97 percent support for joining Russia. The days-long party will also include a concert in Moscow on Wednesday.
. . . .

 

[Czcibor]

According to Interfax estimate Russian attempt to cut Ukraine from gas cost Russia directly 5-6 bln dollars.
http://interfaxenergy.com/gasdaily/...plies-to-ukraine-cost-gazprom-up-to-6-billion

(loss from not earning on gas and from penalty fees to the EU)
(In their defense, had the winter been cold, their strategy of cutting of gas supplies for Ukraine might have worked)

 

[Czcibor]

Russian far-right, licensed opposition, Rodina Party) (I'd use this euphemism and not call them Neo-Nazi) is organizing a summit for other far-right parties from EU countries.
http://www.i24news.tv/en/news/inter...kraine-to-be-attended-by-far-right-eu-parties

It would sound quite funny, assuming that according to official propaganda claims Russian are supposed to fight against Nazis and not actually finance them. To more serious part is that Russians have some successes in using such movements as their political tool against the EU.

 

[Astronuc]

Another interesting twist - In Ukraine, some Russians take up arms against Putin
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-russians-arms-against-putin-093925823.html

 

[Czcibor]

Yanukovych son Victor Yanukovych jr. - drowned in Lake Baikal, when ice broke below his car. Only he died, the passangers escaped.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...an-president-viktor-yanukovych-drowns-in-lake

Now, according to Sputnik (no link, I'm not boosting in google Russian propaganda) on the burial Victor Yanukovych sr. had a heart attack.

Guess?
a) Really, really lot's of bad luck.
b) They made Putin unhappy. Or offended prophet Muhammad what outraged some usual rogue element in Chechen forces.
c) Wanted to start a new life with new identities.

I'd rank my guesses in the following way "c", "b" or "a".

 

[Astronuc]

Analysis: US experts on Russia fear escalation over Ukraine
http://news.yahoo.com/analysis-us-experts-russia-fear-escalation-over-ukraine-072234139.html

U.S. and Western European moves to isolate Russia and damage its economy for its seizure of the Crimean peninsula and support of separatists in eastern Ukraine against the Western-backed central government have not forced President Vladimir Putin to back down.

The State Department says Russia is beefing up its troops and weapons along the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, the U.S. has dispatched 300 American military trainers to work with the Ukraine army, and other NATO members are adding hundreds more.

A partial cease-fire? How does one partially cease/stop some action?

 

[russ_watters]

A partial cease-fire? How does one partially cease/stop some action?

Both sides agree to a cease-fire, but only Ukraine actually does.

 

[Czcibor]

Analysis: US experts on Russia fear escalation over Ukraine
http://news.yahoo.com/analysis-us-experts-russia-fear-escalation-over-ukraine-072234139.html
A partial cease-fire? How does one partially cease/stop some action?

OSW (very good Polish think-tank) concluded that after a hybrid war, there is a hybrid peace.

1) Anyway, Finland chases away some unidentified submarine using depth charges:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32498790

2) Russian military exercise sabotage efforts related to lying sea cable between Lithuania and Sweden, official complains of Sweden and Lithuania:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b633b3ea-f0b9-11e4-ace4-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Z3yD5neR

Are Russians working really hard to make Finland and Sweden drop their neutrality? And later claim with outrage that NATO is encroaching Russia even more?3) Putin's nationalistic biker gang barred from entering EU (so far: Poland, Lithuania, Finland) countries:
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/pro-vladimir-putin-night-wolves-biker-gang-barred-entry-lithuania-1499011
Russia officially furious, because it was supposed to commemorate WW2 battles, lay wreaths, so on.

4) Unfortunately, Russian currency reserves started to stabilize:
http://www.cbr.ru/Eng/hd_base/?PrtId=mrrf_7d

5) WW2 Commemoration:
5.1) Did Germans surrendered in WW2 on 8th May or 9th May? Polish parliament officially canceled the 9th May date, in spite of Russian protest.
5.2) In Poland we giggle, that Russian 9th May parade is going to be even less prestigious that thought so. So far there was a problem that it would be boycotted by whole West, but now there is even a more serious blow - Kim Jong Un will not come!
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/...ill-not-attend-victory-day-parade/520082.html
5.3) Anyway, Poland organizes commemoration of 70th anniversary of end of WW2 in Gdańsk (not bad choice, it was place where WW2 started)
http://www.thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/204611,CEE-presidents-confirmed-for-Polands-VE-Day-tribute

 

[Astronuc]

Special Report: Russian soldiers quit over Ukraine
http://news.yahoo.com/special-report-russian-soldiers-quit-over-ukraine-075809415.html

 

[Czcibor]

Ukrainians nominate Georgian ex-President Saakashvili as Odessa governor.

Well, technically speaking he has experience in rooting out corruption while having his country under Russian fire, so technically speaking he qualifies well. Just idea of taking a foreigner is a bit unusual.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...sident-mikheil-saakashvili-governor-of-odessa

 

[nikkkom]

Just idea of taking a foreigner is a bit unusual.

Foreigner is less likely to have "interests" and "friends" making it harder to fight corruption.

Saakashvili probably has the best track record of doing that.

The worry is that regional governors don't have that much power. They can't fire or appoint most of government employees.

 

[Czcibor]

Ukraine to block Russian troops access to the Transnistria (Russian occupied part of Moldovia)
http://en.europeonline-magazine.eu/...-troops-from-leaving-transnistria_395850.html

Reaction on Polish forums - "nice, but why so late?" ;)

 

[Czcibor]

Belgium court baliffs are freezing Russian gov property... for old Putins sins concerning Yukos.
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-yukos-lawsuit-belgium-seizes-assets/27078433.html

 

[Czcibor]

"United Nations: The Netherlands, Malaysia and three other countries want a UN tribunal to be set up to try those responsible for the downing of the Malaysia Airlines flight over Ukraine last year, a senior diplomat said Wednesday.

Malaysia is expected to present a draft resolution to the Security Council next month on setting up the tribunal, said the diplomat, who asked not to be named."
http://zeenews.india.com/news/world...or-un-tribunal-for-mh17-culprits_1619485.html

Sure, Russian can veto it... Just such veto would look even more like admission of guilt.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Looks like now that Crimea is a done deal, it's time to think about Lithuania: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33325842

 

[Dotini]

"United Nations: The Netherlands, Malaysia and three other countries want a UN tribunal to be set up to try those responsible for the downing of the Malaysia Airlines flight over Ukraine last year, a senior diplomat said Wednesday.

Malaysia is expected to present a draft resolution to the Security Council next month on setting up the tribunal, said the diplomat, who asked not to be named."
http://zeenews.india.com/news/world...or-un-tribunal-for-mh17-culprits_1619485.html

Sure, Russian can veto it... Just such veto would look even more like admission of guilt.

Nevermind the investigation. The truth is what we say it is. Might makes right. Our means are justified by our ends.

 

[Czcibor]

Nevermind the investigation. The truth is what we say it is. Might makes right. Our means are justified by our ends.

No, that's outdated SU strategy. Nowadays its more a technique of making an information noise to deny existence of any truth and replace it with clatter of opinions:
http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...rdian-view-russian-propaganda-truth-out-there

 

[Czcibor]

Sweden found a tiny Russian submarine. Officially Swedes are worried: "The submarine is completely intact, has no visible damage to the hull and the hatches are closed. Therefore we do fear that the crew has not been able to save themselves when the sub went down".

 

[Czcibor]

Seems that this submarine is from WW1:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33684715

 

[Czcibor]

Russia on Wednesday vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution that would set up an international criminal court to prosecute those responsible for shooting down a Malaysia Airlines plane over Ukraine a year ago.

[...]

Three countries abstained from the vote: China, Angola and Venezuela, whose ambassador said victims' suffering shouldn't be used politically.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/russian-veto-expected-security-council-votes-mh17-32748771As I've seen on one Polish forum:
Since when a criminal decides whether to be judged or not?
Since he has nukes

 

[Czcibor]

Germany decided to back stab Ukrainians by signing a gas deal that would make their country irrelevant as gas transit route by building an extra gas line on Baltic bottom.

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-slovakia-nord-stream-pipeline/27237467.html

 

[Hornbein]

5.1) Did Germans surrendered in WW2 on 8th May or 9th May?

The West said the surrender was one minute before midnight, USSR said one minute after.

 

[Czcibor]

The West said the surrender was one minute before midnight, USSR said one minute after.

More complicated. Because Russians intended to use caught Germans as slaves, Germans tried to surrender to West, while military delay Soviet advances. The result was that first surrender to the West was signed on the 7th, while effective on 8th. Soviets demand for PR reasons also a surrender to them, thus they insisted on 9th.

Of course, when now history is being weaponized such minor date difference matters.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Instrument_of_Surrender

 

[Czcibor]

There was already year ago a poll showing that first time in history (or from at least many years) there is a slight majority in Sweden for joining NATO:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/29/us-sweden-nato-idUSKBN0II1XN20141029

Recent polls show that it was not a fluke:
http://www.thelocal.se/20150914/poll-more-swedes-now-for-nato-than-against

So far split society. It would be a quite good job of Putin if he manage annoy Swedes enough to make them officially drop their sacred, semi-neutrality.

 

[mheslep]

Annoyance? You think that is the best description of Swedish sentiment regards Putin's Russia?

 

[Czcibor]

Estonian border guard, who was kidnapped from Estonia by Russian special forces and was sentenced for 15 years, was exchanged for a Russian spy:

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-estonia-eston-kohver-swapped/27272168.html

Hmm... Russians are in quite good position here, because they can kidnap whoever they want and later exchange him on their real spies.

 

[chingel]

A small correction, the guy who was kidnapped is the local equivalent (it's a small country) of an FBI/CIA officer, not a border guard.

Yes, its quite an application of force by Russia towards a NATO country. If your guy gets caught doing illegal spying, you kidnap their guy from their country (by literally crossing the border and kidnapping someone) and then do an exchange.