How to Determine Uncertainty of a Probability with Experimental Data?

In summary, if you have experimentally determined a probability of an event with two possible outcomes to be 46/234, you can use the technique of propagation of uncertainty to find the uncertainty. This can be done by considering the uncertainty in your data, which affects the calculated probability. For more information on this, you can refer to https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=196445 [Broken]
  • #1
mudkip9001
20
0
If i have experimentally determined a probability of an event with two possible outcomes to be, say, 46/234, how can I attatch an uncertainty value to this?
 
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  • #2
You used some formula to calculate the probability from your data. Your data has an uncertainty. Therefore, by propogation of uncertainty, your probability has an uncertainty. That is, you use the technique of propagation of uncertainty to find the uncertainty.

If your first year, check this out:
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=196445 [Broken]
 
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  • #3
Thank you, I read the pdf, and I found it useful, but I did not find the answer to my question. I didn't use a formula to calculate the probability, I just observed that I got this outcome 43 out of 234 times
 

1. What is uncertainty of a probability?

Uncertainty of a probability refers to the lack of certainty or confidence in the accuracy of a probability value. It is a measure of the variability or unpredictability of an event occurring.

2. How is uncertainty of a probability calculated?

The uncertainty of a probability can be calculated using different methods depending on the type of probability distribution. For a discrete probability distribution, it can be calculated using the formula: √(p(1-p)/n), where p is the probability of an event occurring and n is the sample size. For a continuous probability distribution, it can be calculated using the standard deviation of the distribution.

3. Why is uncertainty of a probability important?

Uncertainty of a probability is important because it helps us understand the reliability of a probability value. It allows us to determine the level of confidence we can have in our predictions and decision-making based on that probability.

4. How does sample size affect uncertainty of a probability?

The larger the sample size, the smaller the uncertainty of a probability. This is because a larger sample size reduces the variability in the data and provides a more accurate estimate of the true probability.

5. Can uncertainty of a probability be reduced?

Yes, uncertainty of a probability can be reduced by increasing the sample size, improving the accuracy of data collection, and using more precise measurement techniques. It can also be reduced by using different statistical methods to analyze the data and make more accurate predictions.

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