Dismiss Notice
Join Physics Forums Today!
The friendliest, high quality science and math community on the planet! Everyone who loves science is here!

News US Debt Ceiling Explained

Tags:
  1. Jul 31, 2011 #1
    I thought it might be helpful to explain the whole debt ceiling issue. The US government takes in a certain amount in taxes, and then pays out a much higher amount in spending. To pay for the difference, it takes out loans, AKA Treasury bonds, from investors and foreign countries. Like any loan, you have to pay interest, but our finances are so bad that we borrow even the money we need to pay the interest on the loans we already have!

    The problem we're having now is that there is a law which puts a cap on the total amount we can owe at once, and our debt is expected to hit it on August 2. At that point we can only spend as much as we take in, which is a tough thing to achieve overnight when we borrow 40 cents for every dollar we spend. So what do we cut? If we skip some interest payments, then lenders like China may start charging us higher interest rates, which could worsen our economic situation. Halting defense contractor payments or soldier pay would place an undue burden on our troops, and delaying Medicare payments would lead to doctors turning away seniors. But if we pay everything I listed, we'll have almost nothing for everything else. Say goodbye to border agents, federal housing, welfare, prison security, and all the other services of Uncle Sam.

    Finally, there's Social Security, which is kind of up in the air. Many people believe there is a vault of cash somewhere called the trust fund, but sadly that's not true. As payroll taxes come in, the government immediately spends the money on whatever it wants, and then just sticks Treasury bonds in the trust fund. In normal circumstances those bonds are sold on the open market to pay for benefits, but after we hit the debt ceiling we're not allowed to borrow any more money. So seniors may not get their checks on August 3.

    All in all, it's a terrible situation, so we should hope a deal is reached soon to raise the debt ceiling.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 31, 2011
  2. jcsd
  3. Jul 31, 2011 #2
    Re: Debt Ceiling Explained

    yeah, well, the problem is that we don't have to borrow. we are a sovereign nation, and we can just print the dollars without debt instead of printing the dollars and also paying interest on those dollars.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ruYfR-Ht1o

    tell me, where do you think the Federal Reserve got $16 Trillion dollars to bail out foreign banks?

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...-of-interest/2011/07/21/gIQAJbbnSI_story.html

    does this mean we now own europe the way some people think china owns us?
     
  4. Jul 31, 2011 #3
    Re: Debt Ceiling Explained

    It's an interesting idea, but it won't solve the fiscal deficit problem. In essence, it is a return to 'golden' coins; a thing you can trade for goods which is state issued with the difference that it wouldn't have an intrinsic value. You would think that governments then would be forced to run a fiscal surplus, but in the end, they will just issue loans again. I.e., nothing would change.

    The US doesn't own Europe; netto, the US is a significant importer of goods, you run a large trade deficit. That means that lots of dollars end up abroad, some in Europe, some in China. Europe and China don't own the US, they own paper.

    Mostly, with dollars which ended up in Europe, US treasury bonds and companies are bought. The latter means that ownership of firms is transferred to foreigners. That's not a bad thing, in the end, I think it means that US workers keep their jobs, and usually the owner ends up immigrating to the US, or companies are just merged into international clusters. Again, netto, nothing changed except that goods were given to the US at no cost.

    (The only thing which changes for the US as more money accumulates abroad is that it becomes more difficult to buy products, like oil. I.e., oil prices go up.)
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2011
  5. Jul 31, 2011 #4
    Re: Debt Ceiling Explained

    So you will have a larger money supply chasing goods and a proper chance of resulting inflation. Would you end up like Zimbabwe and hyperinflation? Would you want to? Why would anyone want to work if money is "free".
     
  6. Jul 31, 2011 #5
    it's got nothing at all to do with gold.

    if you get rid of taxes, and have no real economy, then that could happen. it's entirely a matter of how much money you put into circulation. don't try to use it as an excuse to get to something for nothing, and that won't happen.

    problem is, congress is overspending now, but we're also paying interest on debt that only makes the problem worse and enriches the wealthy for no good reason as they provide no real service in exchange for us giving them money.
     
  7. Jul 31, 2011 #6
    This simply is not true, and is more or less the definition of bankruptcy. Interest on outstanding debt costs the Treasury ~$40B a month, against ~$200B in revenues.
     
  8. Jul 31, 2011 #7
    As a recipient of the GI Bill, to fund my education, this has me pretty worried. I don't even know if I will get paid this month (which is money that I have essentially already earned). Thanks for the information, I have admittedly not followed these events until I realized that it could effect me personally.
     
  9. Jul 31, 2011 #8
    I didn't mean that it's impossible to pay interest without borrowing, I was talking about our current practice. Starting at the beginning of the month, we pay for things out of revenues until we're out of cash. Then we use borrowed money for everything else. By the time we have to pay interest coupons, we usually have run out of revenue. Of course, once we hit the debt ceiling the Treasury Department will probably change the schedule of our payments, so that interest comes before everything else.
     
  10. Jul 31, 2011 #9
    Thank you for your service. This is the rough order that people expect Obama to prioritize payments: interest on the debt, Social Security, soldier pay, veterans benefits, defense contractors, Medicare payments, and then everything else. So you're relatively likely to be paid.
     
  11. Jul 31, 2011 #10
    This is more or less the worst idea anyone could seriously propose. We will sooner default on the debt than try printing our way out.

    The Fed has a balance sheet - it does not print money. That is the exclusive domain of the Treasury. What the Fed can do is borrow against or sell book assets, to raise working capital. Its stakeholders (the member banks) are the primary providers of working Board capital.
     
  12. Jul 31, 2011 #11
    defaulting seems to be unconstitutional. the worst idea is that we ever started borrowing in the first place. but if for some reason we do need to spend more than we take in, i think it is better to reduce the purchasing power of the dollar directly than to dilute the dollar, and then also owe debt on top of that.

    are you telling me that the federal reserve bailed out the banks by borrowing money from the banks, to then give it back to the banks?

    i'm also wondering if you can explain to me who, if not the Fed, creates money out of thin air for http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing" [Broken] doesn't have to exist as a printed currency. it's still there electronically, and when the banks use fractional reserve lending, they add even more to the money supply.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 5, 2017
  13. Jul 31, 2011 #12
    The funds for quantitative easing aren't "created" in the strictest sense - they are taken from the out-of-circulation asset stock held by the reserve, and injected into the circulated money supply, either by purchasing non-dollar assets, or lowering the reserve requirements, or some combination of both.

    The Fed has numerous tools with which it controls the money supply. The power to issue and/or retire currency is not one of them.
     
  14. Jul 31, 2011 #13

    SixNein

    User Avatar
    Gold Member

    On the topic of who prints money:


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Note
     
  15. Aug 1, 2011 #14
    once again, printed paper notes are not the only money. most of it is electronic. the treasury prints the paper and mints the coins.
     
  16. Aug 1, 2011 #15

    FlexGunship

    User Avatar
    Gold Member

    Minor correction: the U.S. has already incurred the debt to push it past the "ceiling," that is to say, the money is already spent. However, in order to add those debts to the list of "payees" the debt ceiling has to be raised.

    Even if the U.S. went on an instant "spend as much as we take in" diet, the debt ceiling would still have to be raised to accommodate existing debt obligations.

    A small point in detail, but still important. It's like we already swiped the credit card, took home the new vacuum cleaner, and then realized that we're at $5,120 out of our $5,000 credit limit and NOW we're discussing if we need to raise our credit limit.
     
  17. Aug 1, 2011 #16
    No, that's not true. Every dollar we spend has to come from somewhere. It either comes from money we have already collected in taxes, or money we have already borrowed through Treasury bonds. Every dollar we borrow is immediately added to a number called the "Public Debt Subject to Limit". We are only allowed to engage in borrowing if this number is less than the debt ceiling. So no, our debt has not exceeded the debt ceiling, and we don't need to raise the debt ceiling "to accommodate existing debt obiligations".

    The US government spends its money on two things: 1. interest on Treasury bonds and 2. everything else. The first is associated with "money that is already spent", but the second isn't. Once we hit the debt ceiling, will be able to pay everything in category 1 and some of category 2, essentially forever. A "spend as much as we take in diet" is sufficient to not default on our debt.
     
  18. Aug 1, 2011 #17
    I said it is like returning to 'golden' coins without any intrinsic value. It was a polite manner of saying that it won't work.

    I am sorry, but the guy has no idea what he is talking about, is unemployed, and is just posting videos to make some money. Don't buy into it.

    I have listened to two idea's of him:

    1) Let's just print money without any intrinsic or other value. Who'ld want it? Golden coins had intrinsic value. You also have fiat money, and some other forms. All forms of money are backed by a manner which gives the currency value. It really is a no-brainer that this [his proposal] cannot work.

    2) Let's use copper coins. That's a return to commodity money. Will it solve any problem: no! It is not a problem of which type of currency the US uses to create a debt hole. The debt hole is the problem. [And that hole cannot magically disappear, unless for default.]

    Don't post stuff of the guy again, unless just for laughs. It is a scam.
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2011
  19. Aug 1, 2011 #18

    FlexGunship

    User Avatar
    Gold Member

    I understand the nature of the debt ceiling is complicated. Let me further clarify: we need to raise the debt ceiling to honor PAST debt obligations, not future ones. If you're not familiar with Geithner's letter to republicans, then you should read it. It will illuminate a lot of dark areas. Don't feel bad, even Senate Republicans get confused by it.

    Link: http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/Documents/DLDeMint062811.pdf The quote below is taken directly from his letter.

    (Emphasis is in Geithner's ORIGINAL letter, I did not add emphasis.)

    To put it simply, we have out spent the debt ceiling, and now the bill is due. You either raise the ceiling to pay your past obligations, or you default. Simply going on a budgetary diet doesn't solve anything; it's too late. We have passed that point.
     
  20. Aug 1, 2011 #19
    our current currency doesn't have any intrinsic value. our current currency is a fiat currency. the US dollar is not backed by gold, silver, copper, or anything else. just the "faith and credit" of the US government. in the past, this country has used currency backed by gold, silver, and fiat currencies backed by nothing at all. all have functioned as currencies, but currencies backed by silver or gold are sensitive to hoarding and groups trying to corner the market.

    now, if you can prove to me that the US dollar is backed by some intrinsic object, i'm all ears.
     
  21. Aug 1, 2011 #20
    i believe he is talking about spending "obligations" there, not actual debts. those spending "obligations" can simply be annulled by additional legislation.
     
Know someone interested in this topic? Share this thread via Reddit, Google+, Twitter, or Facebook




Similar Discussions: US Debt Ceiling Explained
  1. The US National Debt (Replies: 33)

Loading...