US Presidential Election

  1. BobG

    BobG 2,368
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    I think it's safe to say that the final nail has been driven into the Clinton campaign.

    It's time to start talking about McCain vs. Obama.

    Right now, the electoral vote looks like a tie: Electoral Vote Projection Page
    It doesn't look like a tie at first glance, but the latest polls give McCain the advantage in Ohio (20 electoral votes) and Obama the edge in Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), so that will change the electoral projection to a 269 to 269 tie.

    Kind of a good point to start the general election thread, eh?
     
  2. jcsd
  3. BobG

    BobG 2,368
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    I have to start with one knock on McCain: his stand on the GI Bill.

    He's right from a strictly economic point of view. If you're fighting a decades long war on terror, it's counter productive to offer incentives that will result in military personnel getting out of the military to take advantage of them.

    I don't think you can evaluate this issue strictly on an economic point of view. They deserve an expanded GI Bill whether they choose to stay in or not.
     
  4. Astronuc

    Staff: Mentor

    Days to go to Nov 4: 164 days.

    McCain vs Obama will be interesting, especially of Chuck Hagel is the VP candidate. I suppose we'll have to wait for the Democratic Convention.
     
  5. Gokul43201

    Gokul43201 11,141
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    This is the site I use for electoral vote projections: http://electoral-vote.com/

    They are a little slow in updating the latest polls into their projection.
    http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May24.html

    They have McCain with a 30 point lead, but are currently calling OH and WI "barely GOP". Every polling aggregate I've seen so far has Obama with a tiny lead in both states (30 EVs), which would give him the 30 point lead. In any case, it is essentially meaningless to look into small differences this early in the process.
     
  6. Astronuc

    Staff: Mentor

    Makes me wonder if in Sept or October, some pollsters are going to claim one or the other as the 'presumptive' president-elect, well before Nov. 4.
     
  7. Gokul43201

    Gokul43201 11,141
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    What do folks here think of Kathleen Sebelius for Veep?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathleen_Sebelius

    Some tidbits that I think are noteworthy (from the wiki):
    To summarize: She is a popular Democratic Governor in a red State (one that Obama can call a "home state"). She can call Kansas, Ohio and Michigan "home" (we've now learned the importance of being able to call key states your home). She has partered with Republicans (both her Lt. Govs were GOP members before the election). She is a highly successful Governor - a strong fiscal conservative and a moderate on social issues, but is not popular among gun owners. She has refused key lobbyist money during her campaigns. And she rocks! :biggrin:
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2008
  8. Astronuc

    Staff: Mentor

    She sounds like a viable VP candidate.

    I'd be interested in Obama's choices for SecState and SecDef, both important positions these days.
     
  9. Gokul43201

    Gokul43201 11,141
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    With the way the entire Primary season has been moving forward I wonder how soon positions like these will be talked about by the campaings. I don't think it's common to actually announce cabinet positions in the Convention, is it? I do remember that Colin Powell gave the keynote speech in 2000, so that was already an informal announcement of sorts, I guess.

    Obama will be well served to put his money where his mouth is and offer cabinet positions to Republicans, like Hagel, Lugar or Specter.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2008
  10. Gokul43201

    Gokul43201 11,141
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    Listen to the caller at 16:30 in last week's Talk of the Nation, on NPR. The Republicans have always been good at connecting with the masses on an emotional level. Are they losing that edge now?

    http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90596524
     
  11. BobG

    BobG 2,368
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    I've always felt that Sebelius or Napolitano would make better "first female President" candidates than Clinton. Fair or not, Clinton is too close to matching the previous "first females" that actually just continued their husband's tenure.

    The other benefit is that Dems can't win in the West if they marginalize every western Democrat that actually does get elected. And they can't afford not to win the West since migration to the Sun Belt steals electoral votes from Dems traditional states, but also changes the demographics of the smaller Sun Belt states.
     
  12. Gokul43201

    Gokul43201 11,141
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    Numerically, I think the biggest thing to take away from current polling is seen in the bolded lines below:
    There are 170 EVs that the GOP will need to sink money into fighting. That compares with only 45 EVs on the Dem side. The GOP has their work cut out for them in terms of fund-raising. Their margin of error is tiny.
     
  13. Astronuc

    Staff: Mentor

    http://origin.barackobama.com/issues/ - Some of the issues:

    Civil Rights
    Disabilities
    Economy
    Education
    Energy & Environment
    Ethics
    Faith (Separation of Church & State)
    Family
    Fiscal (Federal Budget (Deficits) and Supplemental Spending)
    Foreign Policy
    Healthcare
    Homeland Security
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Poverty
    Rural
    Service
    Seniors & Social Security
    Technology
    Transportation
    Urban Policy
    Veterans

    It would be interesting to pick each issue and compare the candidates on proposals and past record.

    Also - http://factcheck.barackobama.com/

     
  14. Gokul43201

    Gokul43201 11,141
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  15. Astronuc

    Staff: Mentor

    Wait!

    Barr Wins Libertarian Party Presidential Nod.

    Will he take popular votes from McCain or Obama or both?

    Interesting. :rolleyes:
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2008
  16. Evo

    Staff: Mentor

    sheer stupidity

    I wonder how many nimnalls will vote Libertarian? Yes, I said nimnals, because they know they have no chance in hell of winning but can possibly screw up an election if it is close.

    Who is this going to hurt more, Democrats or Republicans? We all know that the nimnalls that voted for Nader put Bush in office.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20080525/pl_cq_politics/politics2884125
     
  17. I'll be voting for Barr.
     
  18. Gokul43201

    Gokul43201 11,141
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    After a quick glance, his stands on most issues sound sensible. I don't know what alternative he has proposed for the federal income tax, but that's the one issue that could be the biggie.

    Barr could cut into McCain's bloc. How much, we'll have to wait and see.
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2008
  19. Gokul43201

    Gokul43201 11,141
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    My prediction of people that will not fill McCain's VP spot: Crist, Jindal and Romney.

    I think we just saw a consolation prize weekend gathering in Sedona.
     
  20. It is funny, because the vice presidents may be pretty darn important this time around since Obama is likely to get assassinated, and McCain is likely to die of old age.
     
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