What are the odds?

[TSBrainJEC]

Last Friday 3/16/2007, I was playing cards with my pals and watching the NCAA Tournament. I looked up and noticed the score was tied.

Then I glanced up and noticed ALL of the scores were tied at that exact instance.

I wondered at the time, and several people have asked me since, what the odds are of this happening. I would think it would be rare (I've never seen or heard of such a thing). I'd be interested in knowing the odds and how to go about calculating them.

I'm uploading a pic to provide evidence and could email it to anyone who would like. I look forward to hearing from the Great OZ! :rofl:

 

[berkeman]

Thread moved from Engineering to General Discussion, and attachment approved. Welcome to the PF, TSBrainJEC.

 

[JasonRox]

How would measure such a probability?

It's only rare depending on how you choose to measure it.

 

[dontdisturbmycircles]

How many games were being played? Of course you won't get very accurate odds here... Find out what % of the time a basketball game is statistically tied. (in minutes per game) assuming that they were all going on at the same time...

 

[JasonRox]

How many games were being played? Of course you won't get very accurate odds here... Find out what % of the time a basketball game is statistically tied. (in minutes per game) assuming that they were all going on at the same time...

The probability is probably quite high depending at what you're looking at and especially what sport.

If the games start at the same time, the likely hood that all the hockey games are tied are tremendously high. For basketball, it's not as high, but I would it is generally pretty high. The likelihood of it happening 5 before minutes before the game end obviously has lower probabilities.

 

[G01]

It's still really neat looking, whether probable or not.

 

[JasonRox]

It's still really neat looking, whether probable or not.

No doubt.

What's even more amazing was how he was able to get the camera out and take a picture before the scored changed!

 

[TSBrainJEC]

Notice the progression?

One of my consultants responded and spotted the progression. How did I miss that?

14, 17, 21, 26

Question: How many games were going on?
4

(if there were 6, would we have had 12 and 32?)

Question: Did they all start at the same time?
No, they all started at progressively different times.

Tie Score Time remaining
1st period (1st of 2) Time elapsed Stretttccchhh
24 2:24 12:36 Round up to 13
17 5:38 9:22 Adds to 13
21 8:17 6:43 Adds to 13
14 10:35 4:25 4*2 + 5

I couldn't resist forcing the stretch. Some folks just insist on making numbers work! :uhh:

Say, I posted this on You Tube. Making statistics fun for everyone!

 

[Kurdt]

Surely the probability is 1 since all games are tied when they begin (assuming of course they all start at the same time).

 

[JasonRox]

One of my consultants responded and spotted the progression. How did I miss that?

14, 17, 21, 26

Question: How many games were going on?
4

(if there were 6, would we have had 12 and 32?)

Question: Did they all start at the same time?
No, they all started at progressively different times.

Tie Score Time remaining
1st period (1st of 2) Time elapsed Stretttccchhh
24 2:24 12:36 Round up to 13
17 5:38 9:22 Adds to 13
21 8:17 6:43 Adds to 13
14 10:35 4:25 4*2 + 5

I couldn't resist forcing the stretch. Some folks just insist on making numbers work! :uhh:

Say, I posted this on You Tube. Making statistics fun for everyone!

But then, that's just going to far.

If the games were tied at 2, 100, 5, and 87 you would probably still find a connection if you look hard enough.

 

[JasonRox]

Surely the probability is 1 since all games are tied when they begin (assuming of course they all start at the same time).

Not if we assume the scores to be above zero.

 

[Kurdt]

Not if we assume the scores to be above zero.

Well that's just making it unnecessarily hard

 

[JasonRox]

But all games don't start tied. For example, poker.

 

[BobG]

How many games were being played? Of course you won't get very accurate odds here... Find out what % of the time a basketball game is statistically tied. (in minutes per game) assuming that they were all going on at the same time...

Considering these were first round NCAA games, the odds would be higher than for early season matchups (where contenders fatten up their records on weak opponents), but less than late round games where you would expect more evenly matched opponents (Jacksonville still being tied with Florida midway through the first half would be be pretty long odds in itself).