- #1

Vendatte

- 1

- 0

## Homework Statement

Event B is cow has BSE

Event T is the test for BSE is positive

P(B) = 1.3*10^-5

P(T|B) = .70

probability that the test is positive, given that the cow has BSE

P(T|Bc

^{c}) = .10

probability that the test is positive given that the cow does not have BSE

Find P(B|T) and P(B|T

^{c})

probability that the cow has BSE given that the test is positive, and probability that the cow has BSE given that the test is negative

## Homework Equations

P(C

_{i}|A) = P(A|C

_{i})/P(A) = P(A|C

_{i}) / (P(A|C

_{1})P(C

_{1})+P(A|C

_{2})*P(C

_{2}) ... + P(A|C

_{m})*P(C

_{m})

## The Attempt at a Solution

The equation I use to find P(B|T) is

P(B|T) = P(T|B) / (P(T|B)*P(B)+P(T|B

^{C})*P(B

^{c})

plugging in the values, I get P(B|T) = .70/(.70*(1.3*10^-5) + .1(1-(1.3*10^-5))), however that value is close to 7, which is clearly wrong.

To find P(B|T

^{c}I plan on using the equation P(B) = P(B|T)P(T)+P(B|T

^{c})*P(T

^{c})

Any help would be greatly appreciated.