- #1

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Is ther a value we can give to these unlikely occurences?

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- Thread starter erotavlas
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- #1

- 32

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Is ther a value we can give to these unlikely occurences?

- #2

mathman

Science Advisor

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Let P be the probability that a set is drawn. Then the probability that, if a set is drawn, it is repeated on the next draw is P. On the next two draws it is P

- #3

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Thanks

So then why is it each draw is considered independant of each other, if say the next draw probability P is dependant on not having the exact same numbers as the previous draw (since otherwise it would be P

- #4

mathman

Science Advisor

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So then why is it each draw is considered independant of each other, if say the next draw probability P is dependant on not having the exact same numbers as the previous draw (since otherwise it would be P^{2}

Please clarify your question.

- #5

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I guess I'm referring to dependant vs independant events. If it is claimed that lottery draws are independant of each other (i.e. one draw has no influence on the outcome of the next draw) However doesnt this contradict with the change in probability for two consecutive draws where the event is identical?

Say I play the same lottery numbers every week. The probability that they draw my numbers is P. I continue to play my numbers the following week but the probablity that they draw my numbers on the next draw doesn't remain P, doesn't it change to P

- #6

- 806

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...doesn't it change to P^{2}as was stated in the previous response?

I don't see where he said that anywhere. He said that the probability of a specific sequence being repeated on the next two trials is P

- #7

- 1,679

- 3

The odds of drawing number x is p. The odds of drawing it twice is P squared but only if this is specified in advance.

If you draw x then the probability of drawing x the second time is p.

- #8

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I don't see where he said that anywhere. He said that the probability of a specific sequence being repeated on the next two trials is P^{2}, which is true.

Is this correct?

1st attempt => draw numbers N = probability P

2nd attempt => draw same numbers N = probability P

3rd attempt => draw same numbers N = probabiloty P

4th attempt => draw same numbers N = probability ?

The odds of drawing number x is p. The odds of drawing it twice is P squared but only if this is specified in advance..

What does this mean, specified in advance?

- #9

- 806

- 23

Is this correct?

1st attempt => draw numbers N = probability P

2nd attempt => draw same numbers N = probability P

3rd attempt => draw same numbers N = probabiloty P2

4th attempt => draw same numbers N = probability ?

No. The probability is P at every step.

- #10

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No. The probability is P at every step.

So then what was P

I'm really confused now.

- #11

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anytime you draw, the probability of getting x is P, but the probability of getting x twice is P

- #12

- 1,679

- 3

Let's use coins. The probability of flipping tails is 0.5 every time regardless of the history of the prior flips.

But if you specify in advance that you wish to flip 10 tails in a row, the probability of that entire sequence of flips is 1/2^10, about 1024:1.

Once you have reached the ninth toss and it has come up tails, then the probability of flipping the tenth tail is 0.5 even though your odds of getting to the ninth flip were 512:1.

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