What will become of New Orleans?

[Ivan Seeking]

I'm starting to think that NO will remain a shadow of its former self; perhaps ten or twenty percent of the population pre-Katrina.

For one, I was struck by one interview with a black minister who, when talking about how it used to be for poor blacks in the city, broke down and started crying and saying over and over, "I don't want it back like it was". This, along with practical concerns for safety for many years to come, a non-existent economy, and the fact that people have to get on with their lives, makes me wonder if anything will bring the people back.

Also, according to at least one famous NO chef, if you want to help NO, plan to visit and spend money.

 

[Cyrus]

Their houses are going to be carved up and sold at higher market values so that they can't afford to move back into their own communities. Mark my words, you'll see.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

True, over time it will come back, but the current campaign to bring people back, or even to bring new people in anytime in the near future, seems futile. In other words, it would seem that it will have to grow back as any city grows.

 

[Evo]

And what happens if another category 4 hurricane hits next year? They aren't prepared for it. Letting people return to rebuild just to get wiped out again is wrong. It is a very problematic situation, to say the least.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The French Quarter is mostly undamaged, but as for the flooded areas, I think a person would have to be a complete nut to rebuild before the levies are rebuilt to Cat 5 standards. And what would the insurance rates be?

I know that the one La. Senator met with Dutch representitives to begin the process of review - the Dutch being the some of world's experts on sea walls.

 

[Moonbear]

I can envision investors going in and buying up the property cheap, while people are desperate to get out and get anything they can for what's left. They'll just sit on the land and do nothing with it until the levy reconstruction is done, then come in and make a fortune re-developing, selling everything for far more than they bought it for once it's safe for people to move back in. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if someone like Trump comes in and builds casinos and golf courses on all that land. Someone like him could put additional funds behind the levy restoration too. I also would expect some of the oil refineries would come in and buy up land while there aren't any "neighbors" to complain. It would also be good to see the city use this as an opportunity to build up the infrastructure other than the levies, such as improving mass transit and expanding roads while there's good cause to claim eminent domain to help people out from under properties they can't live on.

 

[Cyrus]

...and maybe hire cops that do their jobs...go figure...or even mayors for that matter...and a president that does not take 4 days to get a clue and go down and evaluate the situation...but now I am just talking crazy...

 

[rachmaninoff]

...and maybe hire cops that do their jobs

Their local governments are all broke, that's why they laid off a large part of the NO police force.

By complete coincidence, this AP story just came out this hour: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051227/ap_on_re_us/police_shooting
It looks like another extreme abuse of police force in NO. This one too was videotaped.

 

[BobG]

I'm starting to think that NO will remain a shadow of its former self; perhaps ten or twenty percent of the population pre-Katrina.
For one, I was struck by one interview with a black minister who, when talking about how it used to be for poor blacks in the city, broke down and started crying and saying over and over, "I don't want it back like it was". This, along with practical concerns for safety for many years to come, a non-existent economy, and the fact that people have to get on with their lives, makes me wonder if anything will bring the people back.
Also, according to at least one famous NO chef, if you want to help NO, plan to visit and spend money.

Ten percent would be pretty low, but I wouldn't be surprised to see New Orleans wind up with less than half their previous population. The port facilities have already been moving upriver towards Baton Rouge. The only thing that has saved New Orleans this long is that the Mississippi/Gulf port is so important that empty facilities fill up with someone else as soon as the bigger company moves upriver.

A lot of the small towns between New Orleans and Baton Rouge don't have the infrastructure necessary for rapid growth right now, but neither does New Orleans, now.

 

[Astronuc]

Around the Houston area, after Katrina, investors from inside and outside the area swooped in and started buying property for cash, and the rents for apartments skyrocketed.

I have heard comments attributed to business people from New Orleans, that the poor (mostly blacks and Latinos) would probably be better in the areas to where they evacuated. In other words, if you're poor, you're not welcome.

Reminds me of the segregation I found when I first came to the US. :grumpy:

I guess it has always been acceptable to discriminate and segregate based on economic grounds.

 

[Smurf]

Reminds me of the segragation I found when I first came to the US. :grumpy:
I guess it has always been acceptable to discriminate and segregate based on economic grounds.

Why not? It's their fault there poor. Statistics show that the USA has very high class mobility. If they don't want to be poor all they have to do is work a little harder.

 

[Astronuc]

Why not? It's their fault there poor. Statistics show that the USA has very high class mobility. If they don't want to be poor all they have to do is work a little harder.

One needs to read Jonathan Kozol's "Savage Inequalities" to understand that class mobility is not universal, and there still remains today, significant inequalities and impediments to class mobility - and the system is set up to guarantee failure for some. Equal opportunity in the US is a pernicious myth.

 

[Pengwuino]

One needs to read Jonathan Kozol's "Savage Inequalities" to understand that class mobility is not universal, and there still remains today, significant inequalities and impediments to class mobility - and the system is set up to guarantee failure for some. Equal opportunity in the US is a pernicious myth.

Wow I'm going to have to read this guys line of reasoning as to how anyones a "guaranteed failure". But then again I can think of reasons off the top of my head like having to take care of parents or lots of kids. I'm not sure how that would be different in any other country however.

I bet this whole NO thing will be one of the biggest risks investors would ever take. You're talking about huge payoffs but there is, at least in my mind, large uncertainties as to whether or not people will want to move back to NO. To the common person, they may see the government "securing the city against CAT 5 hurricanes" and may think "yah right, just like we were safe before?". When we start dealing with "What will people think?" , i say all bets are off when it comes to risk assessment!

But then again very smart people have written many good books as to why I am wrong so meh.

 

[Smurf]

Sarcasm, young grasshopper. Piles and piles of steamy, juicy sarcasm.

 

[scott1]

I went to the area that the Hurricane hit we went close to shore and it looked like a war zone.We saw bulding that all what was left of it was It's foundation and a small section of wall.
I don't what will become of New Orleans but I do think there going Hurrican proof the City.

 

[0TheSwerve0]

"cultivate" wetlands to buffer hurricanes perhaps.

 

[Amp1]

Pengwuino,

...this guys line of reasoning as to how anyones a "guaranteed failure".

Astronuc said the book says "...still remains today, significant inequalities and impediments to class mobility - and the system is set up to guarantee failure for some.

OtheSwerveO,

Great point, rather than developing the 'wetlands' encourage them. BTW, that's one of the reasons NO suffered so bad from the tidal surge, there wasn't really any wetlands left to diminish its force.