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What's your estimate of the other Drake equation?

  1. 10^0

    1 vote(s)
    12.5%
  2. 10^1

    3 vote(s)
    37.5%
  3. 10^6

    4 vote(s)
    50.0%
  4. 10^10

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. > 10^10

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. May 25, 2003 #1

    Ivan Seeking

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    The other thread asks about life in the universe. How about the [correct application of Drake's equation] number of planets in the galaxy that support intelligent life?
     
  2. jcsd
  3. May 25, 2003 #2
    I would HIGHLY recommend you tell us the estimated number of planets in the galaxy.

    Both of your polls ask the same question: "What percentage of planets do you think have intelligent life"

    Your just asking the number from a total. Why not tell us the number of planets in the Galaxy. I assume the number of planets in the universe is infinite.
     
  4. May 25, 2003 #3

    marcus

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    I just happen to think 10.

    If star-hopping species were much commoner than that, we
    would probably have noticed evidence----junk left around, abandoned bases---or overheard messages.

    I expect there is room for about 10 civilizations in our galaxy without them having noticeably impinged on us so far. An opinion poll is the right vehicle for this---at least in my case it is pure speculation or hunch---would not want to try to justify it objectively.
     
  5. May 25, 2003 #4
    My point is that people probably think a percentage of planets which have life. This is how it works in cosmology.

    Even the Drak stuff is in precentages.

    So if you just asked people what percentage, it would transcend both questions.

    Just a better way to do it.

    Honestly I make no claims about the %. All I can say is universe large, must be life...
     
  6. May 25, 2003 #5

    Ivan Seeking

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    Yes that would have been better. But if even a complete guess, a number is nice to contemplate. :smile:

    When I think of how many civilizations could exist, and I allow myself the luxury of true belief for just a moment, to look at a clear starry sky is like looking at the lights of a great city. To me it is mentally staggering to play a little numbers game - to try to concieve of the number of beings that could be out there. Then to imagine that given the odds, "something" is likely out there looking back and wondering about me!

    [a great thought to lay on kids]. :smile:
     
  7. May 25, 2003 #6

    drag

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    Greetings !

    10^10 is a bit exhagerated as the amount of planets in
    our galaxy, don't you think ?

    If you mean habitable for US planets in the
    galaxy (by habitable I assume you mean we'll need
    nothing more than cloths to walk around, in the
    long term too) then I'd say about 1,000.

    If you mean planets that COULD support in a similar
    way all the intellegent spiecies that exist
    in our galaxy (which I estimate at a few hundred)
    then considering their enitial development biological
    "form" I'd say about 10^5. (I say their "enitial
    biological form" because most intellegent spieces in
    the galaxy are most likely much more advanced than
    we are, because we've just appeared a very short
    while ago, so I presume that what ever they may've
    evolved into is much more adaptable.)

    Anyway, I can't vote on the numbers you posted...:wink:

    Live long and prosper.
     
  8. May 26, 2003 #7

    Ivan Seeking

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    Just fishin

    Yes I was interested in eliminating the middle ground :smile:

    Besides, 10^4 is about 10^6 as compared to 10^10

    To a physicist, a horse is approximately a sphere. I didn't think that orders of magnitude would be a problem.
     
  9. May 26, 2003 #8

    FZ+

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    Nope, a horse is approximately a particle. If we use a sphere, we have to consider the horse to have VOLUME. Which is of course nonsense, isn't it? :wink:

    I think 1, as IMHO by intelligent life we really mean life that is like us. And I don't think any alien "lifeform" in this galaxy would have a chance in hell of being like us enough for us to consider them intelligent.
     
  10. May 26, 2003 #9

    Ivan Seeking

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    No wonder my life is so complicated. I'm following you from now on!

    Interesting. You feel that mathematics, as we think of it, could be a unique phenomenon?
     
  11. May 26, 2003 #10

    Ivan Seeking

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    So your vote is > 10^10?

    Edit: whoops, I mean for the other thread?
    ...and you're killing me. So what percentage do you think? I am surprised at your position on this one.

    Edit again: I looked at the other poll: You're Google Man!
    Does this mean you would have gone for a googleplex? I thought about that one.
     
    Last edited: May 26, 2003
  12. May 27, 2003 #11

    FZ+

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    As we think of it, yes. Perhaps some equivalent would exist, but then again would maths really be a judge of intelligence? Computers know maths, but we judge them not to be really intelligent...
     
  13. May 27, 2003 #12

    drag

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    I think you'd have some problems there if you ever
    work in intergalactic deplomacy...
     
  14. May 29, 2003 #13
    1. There are no planets that support intelligent life, they at most tolerate it.
    2. Where is the proof that there is even one planet that has intelligent life?
     
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