When will China overtake the U.S, economically?

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  • #101
Astronuc
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China to overhaul struggling solar panel industry
http://news.yahoo.com/china-overhaul-struggling-solar-panel-industry-030950006--finance.html

Beijing will encourage mergers, reduce government support for the industry and block local leaders from supporting domestic producers, said a Cabinet statement late Wednesday. It said some producers might be allowed to go bankrupt.

The statement gave no details but it affirmed that the communist government sees solar power as one of a series of "strategic emerging industries" that it wants to develop.
. . . .
The industry has piled up debts of some $17.5 billion, according to a report earlier this year by Maxim Group, a New York financial firm.
 
  • #102
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Michael Pettis challenged the popular economics rag, The Economist, to a contest pitting the two's Chinese GDP forecast.



http://www.mpettis.com/2012/03/26/i-would-like-to-make-a-bet-with-the-economist/ [Broken]

I like what Pettis has to say. His arguements for a need to rebalance the Chinese economy make sense in light of growing inflation (real estate especially) and declining demand for commodities such as iron, copper and aluminum. He says the next two years will be marked by declining commodity prices which could hurt many Chinese companies, particularly those who stock large surpluses of commodities (like copper).

I recently discovered his blog and after spending time in China I strongly agree with it. Their economy is hugely out of whack and it's only a matter of time before it comes crashing down.
 
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  • #103
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China sees a huge gap between the rich and the poor, they have inflated values including a their real estate market that is building ghost towns, they are permanently in a state of being unstable and they rely on an enormous gap between reality and what they are trying to tell the people that will eventually boil over. By 2030 I doubt there will be much left of our China, it will have gone through a period of civil unrest and economic collapse. I would imagine it will be taking the Euro down with it and it will reassure for the world that America is indeed the world's only superpower, probably a fact for at least another 75 years after that.
Japan, Turkey, whatever survives the destruction of the EU, India, Brazil, and Russia are probably the only powers that will come close to the US in that period of time.
 
  • #104
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China sees a huge gap between the rich and the poor, they have inflated values including a their real estate market that is building ghost towns, they are permanently in a state of being unstable and they rely on an enormous gap between reality and what they are trying to tell the people that will eventually boil over. By 2030 I doubt there will be much left of our China, it will have gone through a period of civil unrest and economic collapse. I would imagine it will be taking the Euro down with it and it will reassure for the world that America is indeed the world's only superpower, probably a fact for at least another 75 years after that.
Japan, Turkey, whatever survives the destruction of the EU, India, Brazil, and Russia are probably the only powers that will come close to the US in that period of time.

Right. I am CERTAIN that China is corrupt as hell, that much of their investment is foolish and/or phony, that the statistics they release are false, that those in charge don't know what they are doing, and the whole propped-up mess will crash. So projections of their current rate of growth will not be realized.

As you will notice, economic reporting has two states. 1) Everything is perfect and there will never be a problem again because economics/politics has been solved, and 2) there is no hope and current problems will continue forever. I guess this satisfies the human need for drama.

Right now the press has been getting mileage out of the Foreign Threat. They've been doing this my entire life and surely will continue to do so after I'm gone. Many people seem to need an enemy. As long as they are going to have an enemy, at least it isn't a domestic one.

What I find interesting is that the entire idea of a nation is rather new. Before that it was all tribal, with membership depending on ethnicity. Areas of mixed ethnicity were always a problem. A nation is determined by arbitrary geographic borders with membership is determined by various rules, the base rule being that anyone born within the borders is a citizen. It's a good idea. Israel and Somalia still work on the tribal model. Need I say more?

Anyway, what was the first nation by this definition? I don't know.

Albert Einstein renounced his German citizenship and moved to Switzerland in his youth. He had no passport or nationality for years. I guess people didn't take that stuff as seriously as they do now.
 
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  • #105
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Right. I am CERTAIN that China is corrupt as hell, that much of their investment is foolish and/or phony, that the statistics they release are false, that those in charge don't know what they are doing, and the whole propped-up mess will crash. So projections of their current rate of growth will not be realized.
Forgive me but are you being sarcastic or just emphasizing the word certain, sorry if it is a stupid question but you understand if sarcasm doesn't carry well in written word. :redface:
 
  • #106
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Forgive me but are you being sarcastic or just emphasizing the word certain, sorry if it is a stupid question but you understand if sarcasm doesn't carry well in written word. :redface:


Emphasizing. There is zero chance that current trends will continue without interruption for 18 years.
 
  • #107
Astronuc
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http://news.yahoo.com/china-firm-acquire-major-african-052727505.html
BEIJING (AP) -- A privately owned Chinese company is finalizing the acquisition of an Australian mining firm that controls a major iron ore mine in west Africa, a move that would give China a stronger role in setting global iron ore prices, China's official Xinhua News Agency reported Saturday.
. . . .
Hanlong is seeking a partnership with Chinese state-owned companies and investing $5 billion to develop the Mbalam project and to build a 550-kilometer (340-mile) railway and a shipping port, Xinhua said.. . . .
Ostensibly, the railroad and port will be built under Chinese supervision and using Chinese made steel and equipment.

Last time I checked, 9 of 10 largest global mining and mineral companies were non-US (majority BRIC, IIRC), and they were developing iron and other metals used in construction and structural materials.
 
  • #108
AlephZero
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Right. I am CERTAIN that China is corrupt as hell, that much of their investment is foolish and/or phony, that the statistics they release are false, that those in charge don't know what they are doing, and the whole propped-up mess will crash. So projections of their current rate of growth will not be realized.

Yup, it took them a while to learn how other countries play the "world economics game", but they figured it out eventually.
 

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