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News Who will win elections?

  1. Romney

    14.1%
  2. Obama

    85.9%
  1. Nov 1, 2012 #1
    No who should win .. but just a simple question who will and let's see who gets it right! :biggrin:

    I am still bit confused. I was going to bet on Romney but Sandy complicated things a bit.
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2012
  2. jcsd
  3. Nov 1, 2012 #2

    lisab

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    If this thread gets political it will have to be moved to the dark side :devil:!

    I say Obama will win, but it will be soooooo close.
     
  4. Nov 1, 2012 #3
    I'd be surprised if Romney won. Though, so far I've seen a surprising amount of support for him.
     
  5. Nov 1, 2012 #4

    Evo

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    Political elections do go in P&WA.
     
  6. Nov 1, 2012 #5
    I don't know what you mean. This race looks quite close. I don't know latest poll but Romney was one or two points above Obama last time I checked. I am bit more on betting Romney to win than Obama.
     
  7. Nov 1, 2012 #6

    russ_watters

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    It looks like a toss-up right now. I want Romney to win, but I don't have a strong feeling either way about whether or not he will. I'm going to hold off on voting in this poll for now.
     
  8. Nov 1, 2012 #7
    I think Obama. Still not sure who I am voting for. I don't like either.
     
  9. Nov 1, 2012 #8

    russ_watters

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    Rootx, I was thinking of starting a thread analyzing some of the major media polls to discuss what they are predicting. Would you mind if I posted that kind of thing in your thread?
     
  10. Nov 1, 2012 #9
    Since, this is already moved into PW&A so feel free to get deeper into this topic :smile:

    I was also going to thinking of bringing the polls data to show Romney is not behind Obama.
     
  11. Nov 1, 2012 #10
    I'm not sure I understand how Sandy could have affected Obama's chances at the election? Did he say something about the storm that people didn't like, or did he do something that people didn't like and it had something to do with the storm?
     
  12. Nov 1, 2012 #11

    Astronuc

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    I've seen Romney ahead by 1 or 2 and I've seem Obama ahead by 2. It's close.

    Some jobs numbers come out tomorrow, and unemployment may have ticked up a bit.
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/danbigm...ows-some-unexpected-strength-in-labor-market/

    Sandy certainly has complicated matters in NY and NJ. It's not clear what influence it will have the further from the area folks live.
     
  13. Nov 1, 2012 #12
    Yes, he handled it quite good. One example: "Gov Christie has praised Mr Obama's response to the storm as "outstanding"."

    But, here's the poll data:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19415745
    It's precisely coin tossing thing right now IMO.
     
  14. Nov 1, 2012 #13

    jtbell

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    Remember, it's not the national popular vote total that counts. Ask Al Gore. :wink:
     
  15. Nov 1, 2012 #14
    Even if the polls show they're tied, I think Obama has an advantage. Many people on the left who'll vote for Jill Stein or any other independent will vote for Obama if they see that the polls show a tie. On the other hand, on the right, I don't see libertarians voting on Mitt Romney over Gary Johnson...
     
  16. Nov 1, 2012 #15

    Astronuc

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    And Michael Bloomberg (mayor of New York City) endorsed Obama.

    Yet the race is for the most part a statistical dead heat.

    Many may vote for Romney because he's not Obama.
     
  17. Nov 1, 2012 #16

    Pythagorean

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    I predict Obama will win. With The Economist, Christie, and Bloomberg backing him, and his performance in the last debate, he has a lot of momentum going his way right before the election.
     
  18. Nov 1, 2012 #17
  19. Nov 1, 2012 #18
    The news media loves a horserace, and they've got y'all believing it's going to come down to the wires. It won't. The height of Romney's post-Denver bounce was enough to put him almost neck and neck with Obama. The bounce has since receded dramatically. Obama's "firewall" in Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania will win him the day.

    Romney will literally have to sweep the remaining swing states to eke out a victory, plus steal one from the firewall, and that's just not going to happen. The only swing state showing him up at this point is North Carolina, and there are some encouraging numbers from the early voting polls to show that NC may be closer than the polls indicate.

    Obama will win, and he will likely win with around 300 EV's or more. Florida is a tossup, and it's the only reason why I'm not predicting a ~330 Obama victory. I also highly recommend not citing national polls when attempting prognostication. The auto bailout has seemingly kept the midwest firewall intact, while the Republican enthusiasm (especially in deep red states) will likely allow Romney to keep the national vote close or even going in his favor. I suspect a split between the EV winner and PV winner is much more likely than people imagine, but I'm not willing to make that prediction.

    At this point, I'm most interested in Virginia. If it goes Democrat again, and I think there's a serious chance it will, then it can be said that 2008 was the start of a new political landscape that will be very bad for Republicans. Virginia going blue twice is as bad for Republicans as Pennsylvania going red twice would be for Democrats. It represents a serious breach in their otherwise-solid wall of the old Confederacy. The ramifications for 2016 are immense. Unless the Republicans can find a way to escape the trap of appealing only to WASPs, 2008 and 2012 will be the harbingers of their doom.
     
  20. Nov 1, 2012 #19

    phinds

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    Approximately .02% (that two hundredths of one percent) of Americans read The Economist. Why would you think that matters?
     
  21. Nov 1, 2012 #20

    Pythagorean

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    I don't read the economist but I heard about, and can recognize the social impact of, an endorsement from a magazine called The Economist in a time when the economy is a political topic.
     
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