Who Will Win the Elections? Predictions and Analysis

[Gokul43201]

With 78% of FL precincts reporting (and two-thirds of the uncounted ballots in Broward and Miami-Dade), I think Obama could win FL by over 1%.

Edit: Upon closer inspection, I think the margin will probably be under 1%, but still in Obama's favor.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

With 78% of FL precincts reporting (and two-thirds of the uncounted ballots in Broward and Miami-Dade), I think Obama could win FL by over 1%.

Edit: Upon closer inspection, I think the margin will probably be a little under 1%, but still in Obama's favor.

Will there be a recount?

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

does anyone have a link that shows all counts? i want to see if gary gets his 5%

 

[rootX]

does anyone have a link that shows all counts? i want to see if gary gets his 5%

http://www.youtube.com/politics

US General Election
November 6, 2012
This page updates automatically
Candidate

Popular Vote

Electoral

Mitt
Romney

50.5%
20,654,439

153

Barack
Obama

48.5%
19,848,072

123

Gary
Johnson

0.6%
251,259

0

 

[Gokul43201]

Looks like the Tea Party just lost the Republicans a Senate seat in IN.

In FL, I think we'll get pretty close to triggering that automatic recount. The margin to beat is 0.5%.

Edit: The only pollster I know that called FL for Obama was Silver (his margin for Obama in FL was 0.3%).

 

[Gokul43201]

does anyone have a link that shows all counts? i want to see if gary gets his 5%

Extremely unlikely. I don't think he breaks 2%. More likely, somewhere near 1%.

https://news.google.com/news/section?pz=1&cf=all&topic=el&ict=rhc&ar=1352256626 (click "show all candidates")

 

[russ_watters]

Greg: Every major news outlet has an election center. Here's CNN's: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main?hpt=elec_racenav

 

[Angry Citizen]

Looks like the Tea Party just lost the Republicans a Senate seat in IN.

Also lost them a pickup in Missouri. Fascinating. The Republican Party needs to remove the word "rape" from its vocabulary.

 

[Gokul43201]

Obama seems to have taken PA quite easily (so NOT an expansion of the Republican territory after all), and is looking pretty comfortable in IA.

 

[Pythagorean]

right...

(comment out of context with removed post)

 

[EternityMech]

 

[Gokul43201]

Wow! Tim Kaine just held his spot in VA. Looks like NC is in Romney's bag, but VA is going to be close.

 

[Gokul43201]

CNN just called it for Obama (on the heels of OH).

 

[Evo]

Obama called as winner! WOOT!

 

[Pythagorean]

Obama has been trailing about 1 million behind in the national vote according to politico.

 

[mathwonk]

well i will like it if mr obama wins, but i wish we had a popular vote to decide elections. if we did, then mr bush (w) would not have won and we would be so much better off overall as a country and a planet. we are just playing catchup from the devastation of the idiotic bush years still.

please forgive me my republican colleagues, i know you are sad tonight.

 

[Evo]

Obama has been trailing about 1 million behind in the national vote according to politico.

Not anymore. More votes keep being added for obama, it's down to less than 200k now, Obama might win both popular and electoral.

 

[Pythagorean]

Yeah, after watching it stay 1 mil behind for what seemed like forever, I made that post and immediately the gap started closing. Blue state must have finished up.

 

[Gokul43201]

Yeah, after watching it stay 1 mil behind for what seemed like forever, I made that post and immediately the gap started closing. Blue state must have finished up.

Also, CA is only reporting at about 25% so far.

 

[mathwonk]

i wonder if there is a connection between the fact that more educated people tend to vote democratic, and the fact that republicans tend to reduce funding for education?

 

[Pythagorean]

i wonder if there is a connection between the fact that more educated people tend to vote democratic, and the fact that republicans tend to reduce funding for education?

I was just looking at population density. People in highly populous areas tend to vote democrat, people in low population density areas tend to vote republican. It makes sense, intuitively, that people in dense cities would care more about social reform.

Densely populated places also happen to have more educational institutions (or at least a larger population in educational institutions).

 

[Pythagorean]

Also, CA is only reporting at about 25% so far.

ahh, I didn't catch that. That will probably put Obama in the lead for national vote.

 

[SHISHKABOB]

yeah CNN is already showing Obama taking the lead in the popular vote, by just a hair currently

 

[Angry Citizen]

yeah CNN is already showing Obama taking the lead in the popular vote, by just a hair currently

And that's with the west coast still largely uncounted.

 

[Pythagorean]

lazy hippies

 

[Gokul43201]

Final numbers (with nearly 99% reporting):

Popular vote = Obama 50.2%, Romney 48.3%
Electoral vote = Obama 332, Romney 206 (assuming Obama's 46,000-vote lead in FL is sufficient)

I believe Nate Silver (538 blog) came closest, calling for a 2.5% popular vote margin and being one of the few (only?) big pollsters predicting a finish with over 303 EVs for Obama.

And Dick Morris yet again proves he's not got a clue.

 

[Gokul43201]

Every single person that said they would vote for Romney in the other thread predicted a Romney win in this one (ignoring the few that did not participate in both polls). Yet, there is not a single pollster I've seen (not even Rassmussen), that predicted a Romney win anytime in the last couple of weeks. Seems to suggest that Romney supporters were projecting their desires rather than reflecting the reality of the polls. Or maybe you believed all these polls had a consistently liberal bias? Even people that have in the past extolled the ability of Intrade to accurately pick winners with its late numbers seemed quite happy to ignore it. I don't get it. Do you folks have an explanation?

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

I'm struck by the comparison of these two maps:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
Election Results
The only difference is in Florida, which was a very close race.

 

[arildno]

I'm struck by the comparison of these two maps:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
Election Results
The only difference is in Florida, which was a very close race.

Yes, the big surprise, relative to what was regarded (by betting agencies and so on) as "most likely" (300-310) range is the loss of Florida for Romney.
I thought Silver was overly optimistic with his 328(?) for Obama, but even he underestimated the actual number of EVs Obama got.