Will Hurricane Jose Impact New England's Coastline?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the potential impact of Hurricane Jose on New England's coastline, with a focus on various forecasting models and their predictions. Participants explore the storm's trajectory, expected intensity, and comparisons between different weather models, while also touching on the implications of another storm, Hurricane Maria.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note that the NHC's "Spaghetti" models predict Jose tracking well out to sea, while the ECMWF model suggests a closer approach to the US east coast, potentially impacting Nantucket.
  • There is a discussion about the accuracy of the European model, with some attributing its success to better resolution and supercomputer capabilities.
  • One participant mentions that the GFS model has shifted its track westward, predicting a landfall in Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, contrasting with the European model's forecast.
  • Another participant suggests that Jose will weaken and reverse direction, bringing only minor impacts to southern New England, while expressing frustration with the NHC's forecasting abilities.
  • Concerns are raised about Hurricane Maria, which is expected to be more potent than Jose and may impact Puerto Rico significantly.
  • Some posts diverge into speculative and humorous territory, discussing apocalyptic scenarios and personal preparations for extreme weather events.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views on the trajectory and impact of Hurricane Jose, with no clear consensus on the accuracy of the models or the expected severity of the storm. The discussion includes both agreement on certain forecasts and significant disagreement regarding the implications of those forecasts.

Contextual Notes

Participants reference various forecasting models and their predictions, but there are limitations in the discussion regarding the assumptions underlying these models and the potential for changing conditions as the storms approach.

Who May Find This Useful

This discussion may be of interest to those following weather patterns, hurricane forecasting, and the impacts of tropical storms on coastal regions, as well as individuals concerned about emergency preparedness in the face of severe weather.

PhanthomJay
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I find it interesting that most of the tropical forecast "Spaghetti" models put out by the NHC have Jose well out to sea as it tracks off the east coast of the US. But those models do not include the incredibly accurate ECMWF "European" model, which tracks the storm closer to the US east coast, but still sparing most of the coast from any rain and significant wind, just rough surf; however, the track seems to put it on a beeline toward the offshore waters of New England, specifically, not too far east of Massachusetts' Nantucket Island on Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning. It also shows some strengthening of the storm as it churns up the coast, which to me indicates it will be more of a Northeaster than a hurricane, since hurricanes tend to weaken as they move over the colder waters. But in any case, it doesn't look like a blockbuster storm, so no need to panic yet and start evacuating. It will be fun to watch to see if the European model will once again outsmart the other models and the human forecasters. Watch for the latest model updates twice daily on www.weather.unisys.com , click on ECMWF model. The American made GFS model is pretty good also, tracking it east of the ECMWF, but west of the tossed 'spaghetti' models.
 
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-European model maintaining its previous forecast track to off east Nantucket coast on Wednesday.
-GFS shifts it track WEST of the European (!) to off Delmarva peninsula Tuesday and slamming into RI and southeast MA on Wednesday, then stalling and weakening. (GFS-ECMWF rivalry is more intense than the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry).
-GFS looking ahead in 10 days at another ominous looking hurricane in the mid-Atlantic.
-NHC shifts official track westerly, but still east of the GFS/European tracks.

-In any case, storm will be Cat 1 as it churns up the Atlantic, plenty of Surf. Looks to me like it will strengthen a bit as it moves along, becoming an extra-tropical 'nor'easter', some rain SE NE, and wind gusts along shores to perhaps no greater than 40 or 50 mph. Quite survivable.

-But please refer to NHC for official guidance, thanks.
 
For anyone who still has interest, Jose will grind to a halt south then east of Nantucket , weaken, and reverse direction southward toward Hurricane Maria, which will be churning up the mid Atlantic next week.
Jose will bring some rain and wind to southern New England, mostly the Cape and Islands, Tuesday and Wednesday, but not significant, northeasterly wind gusts to 40 mph at most. Maria, on the other hand, will be more potent, more or less following the same path as Jose did, the latter of which will be absorbed by the former.
I've had it up to my eyeballs with the NHC, they need a good forecaster down there. I nominate Old Dan to take over the helm.
 
I was just watching the Weather Channel. There was a very interesting 3D graphic in which it looked like the presenter was standing in front of a house. The winds increased from Cat 1 to Cat 5 and it showed the damage. I certainly wouldn't want to go through even a Cat 2.

Meanwhile, people on the Florida Keys are still struggling. It will take months and perhaps even a year or more for full recovery.

Maria is extremely dangerous and the WC just reported that there are concerns that on Wednesday it may make landfall on Puerto Rico as a Cat 5, which would be catastrophic.
 
Bulletin: The period when this planet was inhabitable is coming to an end. See you after the next ice age is over.
 
I plan to be here, hiding out with my loved ones in our secret nuclear-powered bunker. Don't ask what we intend to eat, that's our little secret. We're also building an ark, just in case.

Noisy Rhysling said:
Bulletin: The period when this planet was inhabitable is coming to an end. See you after the next ice age is over.
 

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