Will there be a large two-face factor

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  • #1
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Do you think that there will be many voters who say they are voting for Obama, but when the curtain closes they decide they don't want to vote for a black man? Some prejudices die very hard.
 

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  • #2
BobG
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The Bradley effect?

Possibly, but not that huge of an effect. They don't have to hide it. As was mentioned in a different thread, "Muslim is the new black."
 
  • #3
Art
The Bradley effect?
I wonder how much of the Bradley effect is a consequence of the Diebold effect? :biggrin:
 
  • #4
LowlyPion
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Do you think that there will be many voters who say they are voting for Obama, but when the curtain closes they decide they don't want to vote for a black man? Some prejudices die very hard.

I'd say that the race card won't get much traction, or if it's there will be difficult to measure this year, because the Republicans have pretty much soiled the bed. Obama being upbeat and intelligent and looking like he can have an actual impact in helping the country get through the next few years looks like he is instilling more confidence than McMain's erratic performance.

I saw an earlier report that figured 2.5% was likely the race resistance difference this year. But I'd say the economic fears have swamped any thought that people have the luxury of indulging their prejudices this time around. And oddly I've heard little talk about Obama's historic possibility of being the first black President. My sense is that it has finally come a time in the Nation that it's become a big so what.

It's beginning to feel like it's going to be a Democratic tsunami.
 
  • #5
Ivan Seeking
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Do you think that there will be many voters who say they are voting for Obama, but when the curtain closes they decide they don't want to vote for a black man? Some prejudices die very hard.

No. I think people tend to rationalize the reasons, or lie about them, but readily admit that he won't get their vote. I made this point the other day in GD, and today Turbo posted this video...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QIGJTHdH50
 
  • #6
BobG
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A reverse Bradley effect might be larger than a Bradley effect in this election.

Polls may underestimate Obama's support by 3 to 4 percent, researchers say.

Even if the reverse effect is larger, the Bradley effect could be more significant since it mainly applies to Democratic voters (assuming most Republicans would vote for the Republican candidate even if race weren't an issue). Democratic states, plus the swing state of New Hampshire, showed a Bradley effect in the Democratic primaries. The reverse effect showed up in traditionally Republican states, which could play a role in Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana. It might even play a role in North Dakota which has a couple unbelievable polls show the state leaning Democratic (I still think those are outliers).

Some people thought Latinos would be hesitant to vote for a black President, but I think Tom Tancredo iced that vote for Democrats by making it impossible for McCain to stand by his original McCain-Kennedy plan.

In fact, Tancredo has probably given Democrats the Southwest (except for Utah) for at least a decade. I don't see other Republican Presidential candidates doing as well in the Southwest as an Arizona Senator and the only two Southwestern states with Senatorial elections will almost certainly go Democrat this time around. That's at least 29 electoral votes that will flip from a Republican baseline to Democrat and it will probably increase in the next census since every state in the Southwest is growing.
 
  • #7
Evo
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On a slightly different note, here is the article that I mentioned earlier where there is concern that Obama did much better in the exit polls than he actually did in real votes.

Barack Obama's tendency through the Democratic primaries to perform better in exit polls than he actually does at the ballot box has some media organizations nervous heading into Election Night.

Exit polls frequently overstated Obama's vote during the primaries by as much as three percentage points.

For the Obama-McCain contest, there's concern about whether some voters will say they voted for Obama but, for racial reasons, actually didn't.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5gaESiwWi87LuPoUL8L4W-f2Opilw [Broken]
 
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  • #8
russ_watters
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On a slightly different note, here is the article that I mentioned earlier where there is concern that Obama did much better in the exit polls than he actually did in real votes.
That's also been an issue for Democrats in general in the past few elections. I guess we'll see, but there is a good possibility the polls could be very wrong this year. From Bob's link:
"The level of inaccuracy of the polls in the primaries was unprecedented."
Now that article extended the underrepresentation of Obama in primary polls to the general election, but it isn't necessarily true that it will work the same way.

I have a concern that if he loses and the exit polls don't match the voting (by whatever measure people use to decide such things) people will automatically assume the reason is race.
 
  • #9
Evo
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That's also been an issue for Democrats in general in the past few elections.
Yes, that's true.

It's not over until the fat lady sings. Or the votes are counted. And then disputed, and then re-counted...

But I hope you understand Russ. I cannot vote for Palin. Had McCain chosen almost anyone else as his running mate, I say almost because Ron Paul would be just as scary as Palin in my book. Anyone that says he thinks assault rifles for personal use in Public Parks is ok, well, I have a problem with that. And damn it, he took that off the internet. Don't know why.
 
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  • #10
WarPhalange
Evo, Assault Weapons ARE for personal use. They are LEGAL.

And in case you freak out with "THINK OF THE CHILDREN!!" I suggest you look at some statistics regarding assault weapons and their use.
 
  • #11
Evo
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Evo, Assault Weapons ARE for personal use. They are LEGAL.

And in case you freak out with "THINK OF THE CHILDREN!!" I suggest you look at some statistics regarding assault weapons and their use.
Yes, I always carry my assualt weapons to family picnics. They should not be legal, but we've already had that discussion on weapons and it's over, move along.
 
  • #12
russ_watters
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But I hope you understand Russ. I cannot vote for Palin. Had McCain chosen almost anyone else as his running mate, I say almost because Ron Paul would be just as scary as Palin in my book. Anyone that says he thinks assault rifles for personal use in Public Parks is ok, well, I have a problem with that. And damn it, he took that off the internet. Don't know why.
I didn't ask, but ok - I respect your opinion.
 
  • #13
Evo
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I didn't ask, but ok - I respect your opinion.
No, it's just that I was pretty middle of the road until the last couple of months, the old McCain was ok. I think BobG has it, I think I could be a, a...RINO, turned DINO.
 
  • #15
Ivan Seeking
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I have a concern that if he loses and the exit polls don't match the voting (by whatever measure people use to decide such things) people will automatically assume the reason is race.

If it wasn't for racism, Obama would likely be six points farther ahead than he is now. If he loses, it almost certainly and rightly will be attributed to racism. Given the fundamentals, and given Obama's superior skills and intellect, and esp given that the Republicans have destroyed the economy, this shouldn't even be a race.
 
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  • #16
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Little off-topic:

So, to be an arab is treated as bad and evil?
I didn't like the way they associate everything evil with Hussien/Arab .. and I haven't heard anyone telling people to stop this BS.
 
  • #17
Ivan Seeking
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Yes, simply using the word "Arab" is enough to scare our intellectually challenged. Among this same group, "Muslim" is a code word for both black, and terrorist.

Just as the Middle East has its extremists, so do we. The question is: Who owns the country?
 
  • #18
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Yes, simply using the word "Arab" is enough to scare our intellectually challenged. Among this same group, "Muslim" is a code word for both black, and terrorist.

Just as the Middle East has its extremists, so do we. The question is: Who owns the country?

It's scary even worse than them being racists against black, white, yellow, .. or whatever. I think America does have Arab community and isolating them is bit dangerous and unhealthy.

Like last time, McCain defended Obama but not "Arabs".
 
  • #19
Ivan Seeking
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Like last time, McCain defended Obama but not "Arabs".

Yes, I pointed that out in another thread. McCain inadvertantly [or not] suggested that Obama is a decent man, not an Arab!

If McCain gets elected, that sort of thing will certainly help in our foreign policy, don't you think? That's his experience showing again.
 
  • #20
russ_watters
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If it wasn't for racism, Obama would likely be six points farther ahead than he is now. If he loses, it almost certainly and rightly will be attributed to racism. Given the fundamentals, and given Obama's superior skills and intellect, and esp given that the Republicans have destroyed the economy, this shouldn't even be a race.
Yeah, see that's exactly what I mean. The amount of arrogance and the air of superiority many Democrats (and not just you, we've seen it put just as explicitly by others) have about this race is really disturbing. Here's a news flash for you, Ivan: your candidate is always obviously better (to you) - otherwise, you wouldn't be voting for him. Your inability to put yourself in other peoples' shoes and understand why they think what they think is your flaw, not theirs.

I mean think about it: the past 2 elections have been the same way here. Gore was great and Bush (first term) mediocre. Kerry pretty good and Bush (second term) awful. How could they possibly have lost? It must have been fraud, because people couldn't possibly have preferred Bush or his idology, right?

It is much easier for some to believe conspiracy theory than to accept that their ideology isn't as strong as they think it is. Obama may very well win, but it even if he does it is unlikely to be the landslide you are thinking it should be. And that's even setting aside the other racism factor.
 
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  • #21
Gokul43201
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It is much easier for some to believe conspiracy theory than to accept that their ideology isn't as strong as they think it is.
Racism is now a conspiracy theory? About 10% of people even admitted to it in exit polls during the Primaries.
 
  • #22
GCT
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Obama has a two factor lead over McCain in electoral counts , if he should not become president by election day then this means that people have been giving dishonest answers on the polls , perhaps due to conscience , after all the election day is the one that counts. Should this huge discrepancy be the case the world image of the US as a stunted nation is going to be established especially in Europe where they already perceive us as a bunch of infantile mongrels. If the US continues to be influenced by these ignoramous bible thumping old - timers , I'm relocating.
 
  • #23
turbo
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I have a concern that if he loses and the exit polls don't match the voting (by whatever measure people use to decide such things) people will automatically assume the reason is race.
There could be another reason, as well, though, such as hacked voting machines with no paper trail. We STILL don't have secure elections. Around here, towns give out paper ballots, and the votes are tabulated by optical scanners, AND the paper ballots are preserved in sealed boxes in case there is some irregularity in the counts. There is no reason that the entire nation could not adopt something similar.
 
  • #24
LowlyPion
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There could be another reason, as well, though, such as hacked voting machines with no paper trail. We STILL don't have secure elections. Around here, towns give out paper ballots, and the votes are tabulated by optical scanners, AND the paper ballots are preserved in sealed boxes in case there is some irregularity in the counts. There is no reason that the entire nation could not adopt something similar.

Or better yet you can use punch cards that fit in a booklet with ballot choices, and then have people punch out their choices with a stylus on a card that gets read by a card reader.
 
  • #25
Ivan Seeking
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Racism is now a conspiracy theory? About 10% of people even admitted to it in exit polls during the Primaries.

Yes, the civil rights movement was a conspiracy as well.
 

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