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Wilma, I'm Home

  1. Oct 18, 2005 #1

    dduardo

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    Here we go again. Hurricane Wilma is expected to make landfall in Florida on Saturday. The weather service says it has the potential to reach Category 4 by Friday.

    Good Luck to those living in Florida.
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Oct 18, 2005 #2

    loseyourname

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    Where are you? On vacation? Or is this another part of Florida?
     
  4. Oct 18, 2005 #3

    dduardo

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    Last edited: Oct 18, 2005
  5. Oct 18, 2005 #4

    JamesU

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    one more storm and it's a record breaking year! :bugeye:
     
  6. Oct 19, 2005 #5

    dduardo

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    AHH! Category 5! Presssure: 884 mb! Strongest Storm in Recorded History!
     
  7. Oct 19, 2005 #6
    Supertyphoon Tip was recorded at 870mb. Wilma is just* the strongest Atlantic storm.

    *so far as of now
     
  8. Oct 19, 2005 #7

    Mk

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    lol, that ones in my neck of the woods! We got the real ones here.
     
  9. Oct 19, 2005 #8

    cronxeh

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    I think its gonna hit AL
     
  10. Oct 19, 2005 #9

    Astronuc

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    Wilma was moving NW (0715-0945 UTC, 0315-0545 EDT) and then did a near 360 (0945-1215 UTC, 0545-0815 EDT). It could still move across the Yucatan in which case its strength would diminish. Certainly the Gulf Coast is at risk, especially if Wilma stays at Cat 5 (175 mph/ 280 km/h winds).

    Estimated min central pressure as of 1200 UTC (0800 EDT) was 882 mb...26.05 in. (NHC-NOAA).

    If Wilma does continue to move NW for the next 4-5 days, it would presumably threaten the oil and gas production in the western Gulf again.

    If it remains as strong as Katrina or Rita and makes landfall in the US, it will certainly inflict several more billion dollars of damage to the US economy.

    High pressure over Florida at this morning would keep Wilma moving toward W or NW. As high pressure moves eastward, Wilma would turn N or NE, especially if high pressure system moves into Tx.

    I collected some figures in thread on Hurricanes and Typhoons.
     
  11. Oct 19, 2005 #10

    Moonbear

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    Uh oh, looks like my parents are in the path of that one. I predict they won't leave...somehow they'll rationalize that gas prices are too expensive to travel so will stay put.
     
  12. Oct 19, 2005 #11

    Astronuc

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    Well, the eye has had some really strange movement. It has done a couple of 360 loops earlier today, and during the last two hours has move more due west, which is good news for Florida, but bad new for Yucatan.

    Still Wilma could turn more northerly then easterly, but Hurricanes Iris (2000) and Keith (2001) when into central Mexico after crossing the Yucatan.
     
  13. Oct 19, 2005 #12

    Ivan Seeking

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    This is terrible! :frown:
     
  14. Oct 19, 2005 #13

    dduardo

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    I looks like the computer models aren't in my favor. They seem to be focused on south florida with the lastest advisory.
     

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    Last edited: Oct 19, 2005
  15. Oct 19, 2005 #14

    cronxeh

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    Something tells me they are ridiculously off.
     
  16. Oct 20, 2005 #15
    pray!

    I live in Florida also, just moved from Naples to Ocala, so im a bit safer.:rolleyes:
     
  17. Oct 20, 2005 #16

    Astronuc

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    High pressure system moving into Texas from New Mexico and Colorado with a low pressure system front moving across the Mississippi Valley toward the Atlantic Coast doesn't bode well for Florida.

    Wilma's eye is still moving W or NW toward Yucatan Peninsula, which is bad for Yucatan, but Wilma will lose strength. However watch to see if it changes to more northerly or NEasterly as the high moves eastward.

    While Wilma has downgraded to Cat 4 (145 mph/230 km/h sustained winds), it could restrengthen during the day.
     
  18. Oct 20, 2005 #17
    Ugh

    I don't live down on "Hurricane Lane", but personally, I am sick of these storms!!

    I don't want to get into my personal opinion that much here, but let it be known
    that I'm not alone in my opinion that these storms are being "guided" by hi-tech.
    Reading the news reports, it would seem that some meteorologists are mystified
    by the anomalous behavior of recent hurricanes. "Surprise" redirections, and odd
    restrengthening, hasn't gone unnoticed - but has gone unexplained. Who knows.

    I don't know where Wilma will hit, but I would bet it *won't* be in the forecast!!
    Houston maybe?
     
  19. Oct 20, 2005 #18

    Evo

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    One look at the hurricane tracking site's chart of hurricanes in the past and you'd see how "normal" irratic moves are. They go backwards, do loops and zig zag irratically.

    see this link http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001.html
     
  20. Oct 20, 2005 #19

    Astronuc

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    It just means that our meteorological models are not adequate.

    The hydrodynamics of hurricanes are complex, as are most natural processes, and we simply have not had adequate hardware or computational software until the last decade or two.

    Nature further complicates things because each hurricane, like each earthquake or tornado is unique - and entirely different set of initial and boundary conditions. And anyone who has tried to model complex time depedent systems will appreciate how complicated it is.

    Besides, hurricanes are way too big to guide. Although cooling the Gulf, Carribean, and Western Atlantic with some icebergs might help.
     
  21. Oct 20, 2005 #20

    Moonbear

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    As long as it avoids the area north of Tampa, you can come stay with me. If it heads back on that trajectory you showed the first day, then it would include where my parents are, and if they have to evacuate to my place, then I'm going to need someplace to evacuate to myself! :rolleyes: Having my parents stay with me for more than a day or two would be worse than living through a hurricane. :yuck:
     
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