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Winning racer probability

  1. Mar 15, 2010 #1
    For example, the ratio of times he's won first place to the times he hasn't is 8 to 2. His average time is 2 minutes 10 seconds. His leading competitor has a first-place-to-non ratio of 8 to 3, and has an average time of 2 minutes and 11 seconds. The total time (and ratio) of the last 3 competing cars is 17 to 5, with an overall average time of 6 minutes and 10 seconds. What is the probability that the first racer will win first place?
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Mar 15, 2010 #2
    I think I have an equation:

    p = (x/(x+y) + (ato/at) / n
    where
    x = the number of times the racer got first place
    y = the number of times the racer did not
    at = the average time it took for the racer to complete previous races
    ato = the average time it took for all competitors to complete previous races
    n = the number of competitors.
     
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