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Zogby: Kerry ahead 273 to 222 in electoral votes

  1. Sep 18, 2004 #1
    Zogby: Kerry ahead 273 to 222 in electoral votes

    (Later polls from many indicate Kerry pulling further ahead)
    Kerry is back in the race, says latest poll

    (Zogby correctly predicted Gore's greater numbers in 2000, while
    Gallup and other corporate media polls linked financially to the GOP
    had B ahead by 11 points to 6 points.)

    Analysis of swing states gives challenger small lead

    Julian Borger in Washington
    Wednesday September 8, 2004
    The Guardian

    The Zogby poll says the president has made up ground in many of the 20 battleground states, but Mr Kerry retains a slim lead in most of them - enough to give him a majority in the electoral college, if the vote was held now.

    The college, which chooses the president, is made up of 538 delegates drawn from the 50 states and Washington DC, according to population. Assigning electors according to the way each state is leaning now, the Zogby poll gives Mr Kerry a lead of 273 to 222, down from the past two months, but a significant edge all the same.

    (none of the polls, not even zogby or pew,
    are doing enough young cellphone user polling)

    (hold Gallup accountable for giving Bush a false 11 point
    edge in late Oct 2000)
    (Hold all corporate media PR accountable for
    calling themselves pollsters)


    Last Race Gallup Got Right Was 1984

    Why you should never trust Gallup. A Quiz:

    1. When is the last time that Gallup accurately predicted the outcome of a presidential election?

    2. How many elections have there been since then?

    3. Of those elections that have been held since their last accurate poll, how often has Gallup been wrong by 3% or more?

    4. Of those elections that have been held since their last accurate poll, what has been the average error between their final poll results and the actual outcome of the poll?

    1. 1984 was the last time Gallup got it right
    2. 4 - 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000
    3. 3 - They have been wrong outside the margin of error 3 out of 4 of those elections.
    4. 4 - The average difference between their final poll and the actual outcome was greater than the margin of error.

    This post has been edited by kerrywinsbig: Today, 08:02 PM


    This post is opinion of poster and
    not necessarily of the majority of Kerry supporters,
    campaign or President Kerry. Purple happens as tens of millions of blue voters win in formerly red states..
    Thank You God and the people of the USA
    for Kerry's 2005 Inauguration Day
  2. jcsd
  3. Sep 18, 2004 #2


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    I'm sure someone has been enlightened!
  4. Sep 19, 2004 #3
    www.electoral-vote.com is a really good resource for electoral vote tracking.
  5. Sep 19, 2004 #4
    Like I've been saying, Kerry - Landslide!
  6. Sep 19, 2004 #5


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    Last edited: Sep 19, 2004
  7. Sep 19, 2004 #6
    Bah, I was just getting excited seeing my guy winning, with such a disparity between reputable polling companies like Zogby, and random little home-made websites, I'm not gonna put too much faith into polls in general.
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2004
  8. Sep 19, 2004 #7


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    If you look at the graph of electoral vote numbers over time at www.electoral-vote.com, it shows that the projections have fluctuated a lot and the lead has changed a few times. While the current time is a new minimum on the graph for Democrats, there's no distinct trend overall, i.e. no particular reason to believe that this isn't just another fluctuation.

    Also, as alluded to in the original post, current polling techniques are expected to skew slightly Republican as polls do not reach those who only have cell phones—a group that is largely younger people, who tend to skew towards the Democrats.
  9. Sep 20, 2004 #8


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    If you look at the graphs of the individual states, there's even more fluctuation. Check out Wisconsin and the huge jagged line for Kerry support. A lot of the close states vary wildly from poll to poll. This site uses all the polls (Zogby, Gallup, and others) and, hopefully, you can weed through the noise to find a trend. The idea is that by sometime in October, there's enough data to weed out the noise and a trend develops.

    The different sites tracking electoral votes are kind of interesting, though. The results swing back and forth so often, it's almost like watching a close basketball game.
  10. Sep 20, 2004 #9


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    Most polls that I have seen are weighted towards the Democrats. Can you show that the polls are weighted towards republicans.....(I don't think so...but..) I believe in the past elections polling has also been shown to have been to heavily weighted towards the dems. I'll have to look around later to see if I can support this though.
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