DaveC426913's latest activity

I see it. But man my brain doesnt want to.

The smidge is the difference between the correct answer and the close but not correct answer we get adding by adding 1/52 to 1/51...

The problem is, this intuition is wrong if it's telling you to add 1/52+1/51 to get the answer. The answer is exactly 1/52+1/52=1/26...

Right, so there seems to be an implication here. The only possible theory that leads to is they made a bad call going in. Because once...

Sorry 😅 Let's take the case ##k=13## because I chose to ask the question "is the card a spade or not?". There's 13 spades in the deck...

No, i got that. I was just having trouble with where you were leading us. Was it the same crew or just the same plane?

I thought that perhaps, but this reads as if theycthen crashed. OK I guess Nov 1 is six months after May.

Sorry, colour me obtuse. How is this account related to the current disaster? Same crew? Same plane? Or merely comparable incident? I...

I'm sorry, this is the opposite of intuitive where I come from.

Question 2 essentially gives you the chance to try two cards. The ace of spades and another of your choosing. So 1/26.

Yes. I qualified pre-emptively by saying: "... some arguments suggest asking the second question led to slightly better odds." They're...

60 seconds is 60 seconds. That includes time of the pilots to attempt a recovery, then to think of talking to the passengers and telling...

As with the TL;DR, the comments from SocMed (so it's gotta be true) indicate that both lead to the same 1/26 odds (actually some...

I thought she said "we're out of time". Is "out of 10" a thing?

And, of course, not in the 60 seconds they had left, and not while the plane is pitched at 60 degrees.