Recent content by WhiteSwan

Thank you for your response. I'm understand chances each year are 1/5. However from a year zero perspective are the odds not increasing? With cumulative advantage I have more chance in gaining promotion over 5 years than 1 year alone. Like rolling a six, but with six attempts instead of one...

Good afternoon all I need help in settling a debate. If say I have a 1/5 chance of gaining promotion in a year, do the odds of gaining promotion increase as time progresses (all else being equal)? Phrased negatively I can handle it i.e. chances of not gaining promotion after five years is...