How are you preparing for the worst economic recession in 30 years? [Archive]

OrbitalPower

Nov15-08, 03:50 AM

I'm becoming a mini-survivalist, not quite as extreme as these guys:

“People keep asking when this (economic crisis) is going to clear up,” says Hagmahani, who agreed to be interviewed on the condition that he be identified only by this pseudonym, which he uses for his survivalist blog, or by his first name, Rob.

The answer, he predicts, is that the country is entering what he calls a “Greater Depression.” “Maybe they jolly well better get used to the change in lifestyle.”

...

With foreclosure rates running rampant, financial institutions teetering and falling, prices for many goods and services climbing, and jobs being slashed, many Americans are making preparations for worse times ahead. For some, that means cutting spending and saving more. For others, it means taking a step into survivalism, once regarded solely as the province of religious End-of-Timers, sci-fi fans and extremists.

That often manifests itself as a desire to secure basic emergency resources — what survival guru Jim Wesley Rawles describes as “beans, bullets and Band-Aids.”

Rawles, speaking by phone from an “undisclosed location” somewhere between the Cascades and the Rocky Mountains, said he has seen traffic on his Web site, SurvivalBlog.com, explode in the last year.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27244465/

Interestingly the article says a Utah business selling "underground dwellings" is seeing an increase in revenue.

Monique

Nov15-08, 04:11 AM

I've already stocked up on some non-perishable foods, call me an extremist :smile:

russ_watters

Nov15-08, 07:33 AM

How are you going to prepare for the strong possibility that you might get the pink slip... Except by saving up a little cash so that you have a safety net with which to use while looking for a job, there isn't much you can do. and see your 401 k(s) become completely worthless? Why would a 401k become worthless? AFAIK, that's not really a possibility unless a person is absurdly stupid with the way they invested it (and I'm not sure there are any investments allowed that can lose everything). Most people with 401k's invest in well diversified mutual funds and the biggest risk with those is about a 40% drop over a year. If you invest properly, that isn't a big deal. The people it hurts most are those nearing retirment age who didn't shift their funds toward fixed-income like they were supposed to.

Enthalpy

Nov15-08, 08:32 AM

There is no such thing as a guaranteed "biggest risk". Money has no guaranteed value, assets have none. When the company that keeps your shares, your bonds, your deposits closes, you've lost usually.

In 1929, governments let banks disappear. In 2008 they don't, but governments don't have the reserves they pretend to inject in the banks, so either governments have to borrow it - creating problems in the future - or print it like they did in 1973, but then money itself loses its value. So maybe you'll still have you deposits available at the bank, with a similar amount of dollar or euro, but this will buy you less goods. Arguably a less bad choice for governments, and apparently the one they chose this time.

In Argentina around 2001, money lost 4/5th of its value and so did nearly everything. I understand the current crisis as very similar to the Argentine one, with governments injecting more and more cash they don't have - called monetary mass inflation.

Recent attacks by some government against "tax heavens" and notation agencies let me doubt this government has confidence in its own currency.

Remember not to leave everything at your bank. In Argentina, bank offices closed. Anyway, there is too little paper money for everybody. And the ugly side showed in Russia, where notes with odd numbers were declared valueless. No more legal tender, and not tender at all, I would say.

One may try to have money in different currencies to keep some if one loses its value. Not legal in every country. In some countries, bank accounts in foreign currencies are legal, but with the associated risks: bank closed, forced conversion...

Buy in advance what you need, like a home or land? At least you have it. Question is if they'll lose their value before or after money does.

Storing food at least prevents from quick starving. It probably won't save the value of all your asset.

Choose another country? Several countries is Asia and South America may have a better future than in North America and Europe. The ones with sound economic policies and that didn't invest in US banks. Preferably food exporters little affected by climate changes.

Advices by, for instance, our Argentinian forum members would be highly welcome!

Ingot we trust?

Astronuc

Nov15-08, 10:27 AM

I have two 401K's. One is strictly fixed income and keeps going up. The other is diversified, and as far as I know, it's still OK.

I'm optimistic for the future, and I'm working on various proposals for research and development, and work next year, and the year after that. There's enough work and R&D to last me several lifetimes.

Topher925

Nov15-08, 11:10 AM

I'm going to stop using money. I'm going to start trading fur and spices for goods and services like back in the old days.

My 401k is worth about 40 pelts of beaver fur and about 300 grains of curry.

gravenewworld

Nov15-08, 11:28 AM

Why would a 401k become worthless? AFAIK, that's not really a possibility unless a person is absurdly stupid with the way they invested it (and I'm not sure there are any investments allowed that can lose everything). Most people with 401k's invest in well diversified mutual funds and the biggest risk with those is about a 40% drop over a year. If you invest properly, that isn't a big deal. The people it hurts most are those nearing retirment age who didn't shift their funds toward fixed-income like the were supposed to.

You give people farrrrrrrrrrrrrrr too much credit. People always need protection from themselves and their own stupidity. How many of the massive wave of baby boomers that are on the verge of retiring are going to lose a huge chunk of their savings during this recession? Most baby boomers won't have another 10-20 years to wait for their investments to fully rebound from a recession that could last 1,2, even 3 years.

BobG

Nov15-08, 11:52 AM

You give people farrrrrrrrrrrrrrr too much credit. People always need protection from themselves and their own stupidity. How many of the massive wave of baby boomers that are on the verge of retiring are going to lose a huge chunk of their savings during this recession? Most baby boomers won't have another 10-20 years to wait for their investments to fully rebound from a recession that could last 1,2, even 3 years.

The oldest baby boomers don't; the youngest do. Some will have to delay retirement a few years (I don't understand why retirement age for social security, etc, is so low, anyway).

For the short term, the population of squirrels in my neighborhood has grown too high anyway. It's time to start trapping them and eating them.

Actually, I'm more concerned about the government cutting spending on things like missile defense than I am the current recession, although the recession could make the consequences of reduced defense spending a lot more serious.

I'm doing nothing to prepare since, for some reason, I decided this was a good year to spend most of my savings on lawyers. On the other hand, at least I don't feel so bad about splitting up my 401(k).

Evo

Nov15-08, 11:59 AM

My younger daughter prepared me for this a few years ago by spending all of my money so I have none left to lose.

misgfool

Nov15-08, 12:18 PM

My younger daughter prepared me for this a few years ago by spending all of my money so I have none left to lose.

Feels good, doesn't it? :biggrin:

Evo

Nov15-08, 12:51 PM

Feels good, doesn't it? :biggrin:I need to thank her. Now I have no worries. :tongue:

OmCheeto

Nov15-08, 01:13 PM

My younger daughter prepared me for this a few years ago by spending all of my money so I have none left to lose.

I don't have any kids, so I had to do that myself.

Some of the aforementioned plans are on my list:
2008 charitable contributions: ~$1000
2009 forecast charitable contributions: ~$0

Of course, I have some of my own:

Transfer high interest rate credit card balance to zero interest rate card.
annual savings: $2k

Continue to perform electrical energy conservation experiments on myself:
Summer 2007: 18kwh/day
Summer 2008: 12kwh/day
November 2007: 26 kwh/day
November 2008: 20 kwh/day
projected annual savings: $500

Stop buying my homeless acquaintance two pints of swill everyday at the bar
projected annual savings: $650
(he says he'll pay me back some day. really. he will. "think of me as an investment" :rolleyes: )

And last but not least, as I've mentioned before, now that the market has corrected itself, for the first time in my life, I'll be investing $100/month in the market until I retire in 8.3 years. Or until I'm layed off, fired, or quit.

russ_watters

Nov15-08, 01:39 PM

turbo

Nov15-08, 01:42 PM

My wife and I saw this coming a few years ago, and we bought a small, easy-to-heat cabin with a garden spot and almost 10 acres of wood-lot. We sold near the top of the housing market, and banked the money. Our two chest freezers are full of food, and I process and can additional food, too.

The Maine economy was in a bad downturn a few years before the rest of the country got nailed. We read the signs accurately, adjusted accordingly, and will just ride this out. A lobsterman bought the little house next door to my father's place. He owns his boat free and clear, unlike many others, and can afford to keep fishing for now, though the depressed price of lobster and the high cost of diesel are squeezing him. Many younger fishermen can't afford to pay the loans on their boats, buy fuel, and try to keep their families fed and they are leaving the trade. The largest and (usually) busiest builders of commercial fishing boats have laid off most of their staff - no orders.

We left the town that we last lived in because the tax base is dominated by a huge pulp and paper mill with 3 high-speed on-line coated paper machines. If that business failed (even with a "temporary" shut-down of one or two machines) property taxes would soar, even while people were losing their jobs, and losing their homes to foreclosure.

We moved to a much smaller (population) town with a tax-base that is comprised mostly of farm-land, wood-lots, residential properties, etc, so when the ax falls, we should be OK. The town will be stressed but not devastated.

Monique

Nov15-08, 02:54 PM

My younger daughter prepared me for this a few years ago by spending all of my money so I have none left to lose.
you can always use her as your retirement :uhh:

My boyfriend predicted that this was going to happen a few years ago (bursting of the housing bubble, banks in crisis), nobody believed him, most people are still in denial, but he was right.

edward

Nov15-08, 03:04 PM

I am stocking up on canned spam. :yuck:

Spam sales are up.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/15/business/15spam.html?hp

turbo

Nov15-08, 03:07 PM

My boyfriend predicted that this was going to happen a few years ago (bursting of the housing bubble, banks in crisis), nobody believed him, most people are still in denial, but he was right.I was investing during the build-up to the savings and loan collapse, and while my co-workers were urging me to jump into our 401K's real-estate fund (earning 20% or more per year at the time) I stayed out. When the crash came, the fund's assets were frozen and my co-workers were despondent. One of my fellow regional salespersons lost over $250K in that crash , and he had one daughter in Middlebury College ($$$$$) and another who had just been accepted.

You don't have to be a rocket scientist (or an economist) to see when a sector of our economy is too highly leveraged and/or over-valued. Hopefully, the companies comprising majority of my current portfolio will hang on, weather the storm, and begin to increase in value and attract new investment in a few years. I don't need to tap my retirement savings now - I pity those that must.

Monique

Nov15-08, 03:21 PM

You don't have to be a rocket scientist (or an economist) to see when a sector of our economy is too highly leveraged and/or over-valued. Hopefully, the companies comprising majority of my current portfolio will hang on, weather the storm, and begin to increase in value and attract new investment in a few years. I don't need to tap my retirement savings now - I pity those that must. Exactly, but over the years he has been in many arguments over the issue houses are still overpriced over here. I'm glad you saw it coming and made the right decision.

turbo

Nov15-08, 03:39 PM

Exactly, but over the years he has been in many arguments over the issue houses are still overpriced over here. I'm glad you saw it coming and made the right decision.I understand. I got into long arguments with my cousin when she decided that she needed a new house. They started building the house while the Iraq war was ramping up and materials like plywood were way over-priced. The housing bubble burst about the time when they were ready to move in (the finishing, trim, etc, is still not complete) and they must be dangerously upside-down in their mortgage. Heaven help them if she or her husband loses their job.

I love my cousin, and I don't want to see her lose her house. Their timing (financing, building, etc) was absolutely wrong, but I couldn't convince her of that. If she had waited a few more years to begin, she'd be in good shape. The price of lumber is down due to the collapse of the housing bubble, and carpenters are begging for work. Too many people are willing to believe in fictions like a constantly-inflating housing market. When they see real-estate values outstripping inflation and more conservative investments, they jump in at the TOP of the market and set themselves up for some potentially huge losses.

BobG

Nov15-08, 04:52 PM

you can always use her as your retirement :uhh:

I'll move in with one of my kids, sing jingles from commercials over and over (actually, I'll change jingles about once a month - the least I can do is create a special occasion for my family), and I'll read all the signs out loud as we drive down the street.

I think I'll leave my dentures in odd places around the house, as well. Looking for them will give me something to do with my day; plus a little suspense over where they'll turn up should make the day a little brighter for the family.

Sometimes, the grandkids will find them first and give them to the dog. Then I'll chase them around the house with a rake.

If you're interested in that sort of thing, I have two single sons.

turbo

Nov15-08, 05:00 PM

If you're interested in that sort of thing, I have two single sons.What a match-maker!!!! With you as a "dowry", they'll retire as bachelors. :tongue:

BobG

Nov18-08, 12:30 PM

I've finally started to prepare for the recession.

I figured the first step should be similar to the steps I used to learn how to read, so I started by watching the movie, "Fun With Dick and Jane".

Then I watched CNN's "How to Rob a Bank" (http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0605/20/cp.02.html) (this was actually a two-year-old rerun). I was amazed to find Nigerians are really good at robbing banks. All the jokes about lame Nigerian scam letters are based on the inept scammers. The good ones don't mess around trying to steal a few thousand from Joe Sixpack; they target banks and coorporations for big money. It turns out they're even more gullible than Joe Sixpack.

Note: I would't really rob a bank. It was a very interesting news special, but I'd never rob a bank. I think starting an internet church might be less likely to land me in jail. I'm going to have to do a little more research on that idea.

DEW

Nov18-08, 01:57 PM

I started realizing about a year ago that things were not as they should be. I changed my job to a much more secure one, paid off as much off the credit card as possible, and started saving. Good job I did, our petrol prices soared, as have our food and energy prices. Our entire banking system wobbled alarmingly and people are afraid to use the word 'recession'. Its correct political term is 'the credit crunch' and apparently its going to carry on until at least 2010. We've been warned of huge job losses in the white collar services to come, especially in London and the South East and, indeed, many jobs have already been lost, resulting in people losing their homes as they were unable to keep up with the mortgage repayments. As for me, well I'm keeping my head down, staying in a lot more, being careful with how much I spend and what I spend money on. What else can you do?

redargon

Nov19-08, 03:09 AM

I can think of a few cash crops that may help people that are depressed about the depression...

Pythagorean

Nov19-08, 02:33 PM

I've already stocked up on some non-perishable foods, call me an extremist :smile:

naw, I buy a couple cans every time I do my regular grocery shopping. I have a little stash building up.

It's kind of ridiculous for me, since i have a gun and I live in Alaska. On the other hand, hunting takes a lot more time than a college student can afford.

Ms Music

Nov19-08, 03:45 PM

If you're interested in that sort of thing, I have two single sons.

If you are trying to pawn your sons off, they probably are far too young for MY taste, so I won't ask.... :rolleyes:

I keep hearing people that think the financial system will collapse, and all stocks, savings, and everything will be gone. I have a hard time believing the rich people will allow this to happen. (considering the senate & politicians etc make pretty good $$) What do you guys think? Are they just over reacting? Or will Bill Gates be standing in line at the food bank with me next year? :wink:

Topher925

Nov19-08, 04:15 PM

Pythagorean

Nov20-08, 02:46 AM

I doubt the world economy will collapse and everything will go to hell. That is unless aliens attack our planet. But even that might unite us under a single non-monetary federation in order to defeat the aliens. Unless the destruction of the economy is the first step in the alien's plan. Perhaps Obama is an alien and the aliens are planning to take the world down from the inside. It took WWII to bring us out of the great depression so it seems fitting that WWIII would get us out of this "credit crunch". And since Germany has been put in their place many times there are no totalitarian countries to fight on a world war scale. So I guess WWIII will have to be fought against aliens in order to solve the economic crisis. This is all of course assuming aliens exist. Not only must they exist but we also must be able to find them, along with their flying saucers too. But if aliens do exist than we can certainly end the economic crisis. So we can simply solve the economic crisis by finding aliens. I think I have been grading lab reports for to long.

Well, everything going to hell is a bit dramatic, but I won't be surprised if a lot of people experience significant suffering in the next decade. I don't think it matters who steers the economy either, it's more a force of nature (specifically, human nature... one of the more complex 'natures'). The bubble has popped, we have a lot of making up to do for all that time we thought we were a rich country. Things like bailouts will suspend the inevitable and perhaps make them more drastic.

Economic crashes can be modeled as an SOC system. In general, small scale events happen a lot and large-scale events don't happen very often. Other examples of SOC systems are forest fires and earthquakes.

One consequence of SOC systems is that the more you try to inhibit the smaller-scale events, the more of a build-up you create for the larger scale events.

For instance, with the example of forest fires, by putting out the smaller and medium size fires, we leave a bunch of half-burned brush behind, allowing a nice primer for the next forest fire to get a faster head start.

In risk-assessment, if we design a bunch of protocol for all the little problems so that employers will know what to do, line by line, they're not going to do when something big hits that isn't in their book of protocols. This has been a criticism of NASA (and the US in general).

Bailouts are basically putting the smaller-scale fires out and/or focusing on the smaller failures that are all hinting at a much larger failure.

The best thing to do would be to just let go and let the market crash, but that's like trying to burn your slit throat with a cigarette lighter. Even if it will cauterize the wound and save you from bleeding to death, it's going to hurt like hell.

heh, that turned into more of a rant than I intended, my apologies (as I click the 'submit reply' button)

neu

Nov20-08, 05:11 AM

I've already stocked up on some non-perishable foods, call me an extremist :smile:

You're an extremist.

I've decided to stop reading the papers and carry on regardless.

Monique

Nov20-08, 07:14 AM

I've decided to stop reading the papers and carry on regardless. So you're going for the ostridge approach.

neu

Nov20-08, 08:00 AM

So you're going for the ostridge approach.

Yeah. I also eat a lot of non-perishable food but this is coincidental; I just happen to shop at Lidl.

Ivan Seeking

Nov20-08, 09:41 AM

Bailouts are basically putting the smaller-scale fires out and/or focusing on the smaller failures that are all hinting at a much larger failure.

Maybe, or maybe there is no logic in allowing chaos to govern economics. Allegedly we understand why the crash in '29 had such devestating consequences. And in fact we ended up doing much of what we have done recently to avert a credit collapse, but we waited three years before beginning to act. In other words, it is alleged that the worst of the great depression was avoidable.

Likewise, I know that auto accidents will happen and people will die, but I still choose to wear my seatbelt. I may not always be able to avoid a crash, but I can act to minimize the consequences.

In order to prepare... well, we have been preparing for a couple of years now. We keep debt to a minimum and live within our means. And we are always prepared for a crisis - food, and yes, weapons. Having grown up in LA, that's a no-brainer. The events following Katrina were a painful reminder of how bad things can get.

BobG

Nov20-08, 09:42 AM

The best thing to do would be to just let go and let the market crash, but that's like trying to burn your slit throat with a cigarette lighter. Even if it will cauterize the wound and save you from bleeding to death, it's going to hurt like hell.

Vivid analogy, but .....

A slit throat is only a problem if the either a carotid artery or a jugular veins have been severed. Cauterizing the ends of the severed blood vessels will stop the bleeding, but won't that also cause a few other problems besides pain?

Unless you're a hockey player (Zednik stable after carotid artery severed in Panthers-Sabres game (http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/news/story?id=3240651))

I'm not sure how they go about repairing severed arteries and veins, but it seems like cauterizing them would make the repair a lot more difficult. Interesting piece on the severity of severing body parts (The dubious quick kill (http://www.classicalfencing.com/articles/bloody.php))

OmCheeto

Nov20-08, 09:58 AM

Oh my. The company I work for appears to be preparing by going to an internal bartering system:

http://home.europa.com/~garry/pfbartering.jpg

I hope they don't start paying us in pens and pencils.:rolleyes:

redargon

Nov21-08, 01:39 AM

We keep debt to a minimum and live within our means.

Bingo!

you should keep debt to a minimum and live within your means all the time, not just in a crisis. Doing anything else is like asking for financial problems. But hey, everyone likes to drive a new car and have a big house and have all the niceities of the 21st century, though few can actually afford them. A lot of the reason this crisis affects everyone so much is that they have debt and try to borrow more than they can afford.

I'm not sure I agree so much with the weapons Ivan, but each to his own I guess. Desperate people may try desperate things to get food in bad times, but I don't think shooting them is the answer.

OmCheeto

Nov21-08, 09:52 AM

I'm not sure I agree so much with the weapons Ivan, but each to his own I guess. Desperate people may try desperate things to get food in bad times, but I don't think shooting them is the answer.

I don't have a problem with the idea. And you never know, they might taste like chicken. yummie. crackhead rump roast in the oven. and their bones when ground up will be very good for the lawn. and real skulls for halloween. that would be cool. especially if you killed them yourself. you'd have total bragging rights amongst your beer buddies.

Anyone else watch Sin City? I saw it for the first time last weekend. Kind of a cool movie, in a psychopathic kind of way.

Pythagorean

Nov21-08, 06:46 PM

Vivid analogy, but .....

A slit throat is only a problem if the either a carotid artery or a jugular veins have been severed. Cauterizing the ends of the severed blood vessels will stop the bleeding, but won't that also cause a few other problems besides pain?

haha, good point.

If you're very careful and you use a precision laser, you might be able to pull it off amidst the gushing blood.

Ivan Seeking

Nov21-08, 06:51 PM

I'm not sure I agree so much with the weapons Ivan, but each to his own I guess. Desperate people may try desperate things to get food in bad times, but I don't think shooting them is the answer.

I would never shoot someone unless they pose a direct threat my life [our lives].

Never underestimate the animal in the human. There are plenty of people out there who will kill for a few bucks; or just for kicks.

As for keeping debt to a minimum, there is frivolous spending, but also long-term objectives. We had inteneded to do a major remodel. We are also planning to build some new homes on our property as a part of our retirement plans. But all of these plans were put on hold and we decided to sit tight for now rather than acquiring significant debt. But we have also put off buying a new car, which would be more a frivolous purchase. Course now is a probably a great time to get a deal on a new car.

turbo

Nov21-08, 06:53 PM

I would never shoot someone unless they pose a direct threat my life [our lives].

Never underestimate the animal in the human. There are plenty of people out there who will kill for a few bucks.Same here. I tend to use large-caliber weapons, though (10mm Auto pistol, .45-70 rifle) so the exchange will be pretty one-sided if we are attacked. Mainers are not going to go rogue, though.

Pythagorean

Nov21-08, 06:57 PM

Maybe, or maybe there is no logic in allowing chaos to govern economics. Allegedly we understand why the crash in '29 had such devestating consequences. And in fact we ended up doing much of what we have done recently to avert a credit collapse, but we waited three years before beginning to act. In other words, it is alleged that the worst of the great depression was avoidable.

Likewise, I know that auto accidents will happen and people will die, but I still choose to wear my seatbelt. I may not always be able to avoid a crash, but I can act to minimize the consequences.

In order to prepare... well, we have been preparing for a couple of years now. We keep debt to a minimum and live within our means. And we are always prepared for a crisis - food, and yes, weapons. Having grown up in LA, that's a no-brainer. The events following Katrina were a painful reminder of how bad things can get.

Well, chaos doesn't necessarily mean that we don't understand why something happened. It has more to do with the linearity of the differential equation governing the system.

We generally know how forest fires start too, but there's no economically viable prevention for them. But the important point here is that maybe we shouldn't be preventing natural forest fires. Maybe there's no reason to try and prevent and economic meltdown either.

Of course, you and me should take precautions to protect ourselves on an individual level, but the collective economy is a beast with momentum; it's my opinion that no amount of policy or administration is going to stop it. It's driven by human emotion more than anything!

Ms Music

Nov21-08, 06:59 PM

Anyone purchase gold or silver? I have contemplated it, but am not certain yet if I should do it......

turbo

Nov21-08, 07:23 PM

Anyone purchase gold or silver? I have contemplated it, but am not certain yet if I should do it......They are at a HUGE premium now. If you had bought them as a hedge when things were just ducky (or at least appeared so) you would be doing fine now. Buying them now would lock in losses that would accrue when stocks and real estate start to recover.

turbo

Nov21-08, 07:33 PM

Anyone purchase gold or silver? I have contemplated it, but am not certain yet if I should do it......If you have the opportunity to buy some real estate (undeveloped land subject to low tax rates), this would be a good time to load up. In general, real estate is not being "created" like other investment opportunities. It is rather stable, and can help you ride out short-term fluctuations in market prices. It also appreciates pretty reliably in most markets over the long term.

Ms Music

Nov21-08, 07:38 PM

BobG

Dec5-08, 09:34 AM

I actually AM doing real estate... :smile: Thanks for the reinforcement that NOW is not the time for gold. That is why I haven't done it.

But now as long as there is a mortgage company around to get my loan when I am ready...:eek:

I think the real estate market is officially dead. The Empire State Building sold last week for $10. Surely, your house is worth less than that. (Empire State Building Deed of Sale (page 1) (http://multimedia.nydailynews.com//pdf/2008/12/02/DeedofSalePage1.pdf) and Empire State Building Deed of Sale (page 2) (http://multimedia.nydailynews.com//pdf/2008/12/02/DeedofSalePage2.pdf)). It's official. It was filed with the city register and they accepted it. I think I know the witness to the transaction - her name sounds familiar (see page 2). In fact, I might have used that same notary - his name sounds familiar for some reason (also on page 2).

That deed was filed by a newspaper to show how easy it is to steal someone's house. You 'buy' the house, then take out a mortgage from the bank. Then you disappear with the money and the bank forecloses on the house - much to the shock of whoever happens to be living there. (Man sells house 19 years after his own death (http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2008/12/02/2008-12-02_dead_man_gets_mortgage_worth_whopping_53.html))

I suspect the mortgage crisis will put a serious dent in the lifestyles of house thieves. It's going to be harder to get a mortgage and probably at a higher interest rate if they do get one - oh, wait, they don't need to worry about a high interest rate.

physics girl phd

Dec5-08, 09:56 AM

I've already stocked up on some non-perishable foods, call me an extremist :smile:

You must not live with three guys... Stocking up? Doesn't happen. They just eat more!
However, since my husband's a bit of a large man, I said at least he'd fed me and the boys for a while. :rofl:

Monique

Dec5-08, 10:15 AM

You must not live with three guys... Stocking up? Doesn't happen. They just eat more!
However, since my husband's a bit of a large man, I said at least he'd fed me and the boys for a while. :rofl:

I live with one hungry guy and I've learned a long time ago to either not buy tasty stuff or hide it really well (he's caught me a few times secretly eating chocolates that I had hidden :biggrin:).

In this case I just bought stuff that takes quite a bit of time to become tasty: mainly large bags of lentils and dried beans and some bottles of spicy chutney :smile:

BobG

Dec5-08, 10:45 AM

You must not live with three guys... Stocking up? Doesn't happen. They just eat more!
However, since my husband's a bit of a large man, I said at least he'd fed me and the boys for a while. :rofl:

Did you ever read about the siege of Leningrad? That has to be the most depressing battle ever. The civilians in the city were all too skinny to be worth eating, so the women would try to lure the Soviet soldiers defending the city somewhere private so they could kill them for food.

Just something to keep in mind once all of the pets and squirrels are gone. :uhh:

turbo

Dec5-08, 10:55 AM

If you want to read a gruesome tale, Google on "Essex" (ship name) and "Mocha Dick" (the original murderous sperm whale that inspired Melville).

Jimmy Snyder

Dec5-08, 11:19 AM

However, since my husband's a bit of a large man, I said at least he'd fed me and the boys for a while. :rofl:
How nice for you. Few husbands help out in the kitchen these days. And yet I hear they make an excellent ragout when properly prepared.

Ivan Seeking

Dec5-08, 02:04 PM

Well, chaos doesn't necessarily mean that we don't understand why something happened. It has more to do with the linearity of the differential equation governing the system.

I was talking about allowing a system to run amok, as opposed to intervention.

Of course, you and me should take precautions to protect ourselves on an individual level, but the collective economy is a beast with momentum; it's my opinion that no amount of policy or administration is going to stop it. It's driven by human emotion more than anything!

Why do you assume this? We have seen one example after another of how people manipulated the system and caused the crisis.

You feel that we might understand the deepest secrets of nature through science, but economics is fundamentally beyond our capacity for understanding; that we will always be beasts in the wilderness?

Pythagorean

Dec5-08, 06:10 PM

I was talking about allowing a system to run amok, as opposed to intervention.

Why do you assume this? We have seen one example after another of how people manipulated the system and caused the crisis.

You feel that we might understand the deepest secrets of nature through science, but economics is fundamentally beyond our capacity for understanding; that we will always be beasts in the wilderness?

Take a moment to think about the experimental process and how you'd do that in economy (where scale changes everything) without screwing the economy up with a bad guess.

Economists are forces to pick equations for their beauty and elegance (believe it or not this is a dominant factor where empirical evidence is lacking)

I don't think we'll forever be beasts in the wilderness.. I just think economy is wayyyy less developed and understood (after all, it's much younger than physical laws).

Those people that manipulated the system weren't trying to bring the whole thing down. They were manipulating little parts of it for their benefit; they had no direct control over the repercussions of the whole global system.

OmCheeto

Dec5-08, 08:30 PM

I just think economy is wayyyy less developed and understood (after all, it's much younger than physical laws).

I just learned last year that "Economics" is a social science.
I always assumed it was some glorified field of accounting.

But I'm preparing for this recession by spending my money faster than I ever did before.
I seem to recollect, from my economics classes of old, that the velocity of money was somehow important to the economy.

Apparently, the correct answer to the test was really to put your pennies in the bank, as fast as possible, as long as they do not exceed a value of $100,000(FDIC insured), etc, etc.

turbo

Dec5-08, 08:49 PM

But I'm preparing for this recession by spending my money faster than I ever did before.My wife and I saved and conserved all our lives and about 3 years ago we saw bad fiscal times coming, and bought a very small log house with wood heat and a great garden spot, and sold our too-big house in a development in the county seat. To "continue our preparations", today, I wrote a check from a money-market account for a new 2009 Subaru Forester. My old Nissan 4x4 is like a roller-skate when it gets icy and my wife insisted that I needed a new ride, so she had less chance of losing me during winter storms. I'm keeping that old PU for dump-runs, picking up manure for the garden, etc, but it's now looking more and more like a farm vehicle.

I bought a Forester because I had talked my father into cashing in a CD that he was saving for us kids, to buy a decent vehicle to replace the old GM beaters that had been nickel-and-diming him to death. In the two weeks since he's been driving that Forester (with auto transmission to save clutching with arthritic knees), he convinced my wife that I needed one, too. It's a small investment to end the nagging. My father is a month away from turning 83, and has been a die-hard US-made car consumer. Now he can't shut up about Subaru, and he's got his friends and neighbors test-driving his new rig and kicking tires. In all his life he can recall owning 19-20 vehicles, and he swears that none of them has been anywhere near as good as this one.

If you've been debt-free for long enough to save and accumulate some money, the financial market will pay you VERY little interest on it. Buy something nice during the depressed retail market. As Don Henley said "ain't no hearses with luggage racks".

OmCheeto

Dec5-08, 09:16 PM

Buy something nice during the depressed retail market. As Don Henley said "ain't no hearses with luggage racks".

As a Bohemian, I've always done that.

My friends all thought I was suicidal when I was 30-something.

I tried to explain to them that it wasn't that I didn't enjoy life, it was that I'd lived 20 lifetimes in about 3 years. They still don't understand. I'm all for throwing the old people under the bus at this point.

As long as you don't run up onto the sidewalk to get me, that is.

Gads. I love life.

:!!)

turbo

Dec5-08, 09:40 PM

Om, I have endured brutal hours in construction, even more brutal hours in pulp and paper, including rotating shifts that can turn you into a zombie. I busted out to work as a consultant, to find that working day-shifts every day really sucks when you're 1500 miles away too many weeks a year (even one was too much). I found a job as a network administrator for a large ophthalmic practice, and when the my severe reactions to perfumes, colognes, body-washes, after-shaves, etc got debilitating (asthma, severe headaches, sleep deprivation) I had to find another job. Even that new job (with specific promises of accommodation) turned out to be problematic, with some "preferred" people able to violate the policy at will. Actually, the "preferred" person was an older woman with whom the owner had had a "special" relationship when he was divorced from the mother of his two sons.

OmCheeto

Dec5-08, 10:42 PM