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View Full Version : How Successful are US Treasury Auctions


John Creighto
Aug6-09, 08:56 PM
I came across the following quote:
The USTreasury auctions continue to proceed successfully, and thus finance the USGovt deficits through bond issuance. The auctions have continued, but their schedule is very frightening since the volume for given days and weeks equals what was once volume for an entire month one year ago. The press networks tell of successful funding for the bonds, even though additional needs are required to keep the stock market afloat. Two deceptions here occur. First, by means of USDollar Swap Facilities, the USDept Treasury is handing money to friendly foreign central banks in order to purchase USTreasurys in hidden or custodial accounts, all indirect bidders. Without them, the auctions would fail miserably. Second, the bid-to-cover ratio is reported in a manner that includes the official primary bond dealers. They, however, are obligated to bid on all auctions. So the 1.92 bid/cover seen last week was an actual failure, since only 92% of bids occurred outside the primary dealers who hustle to unload their inventory. More double counting comes, now that Toronto Dominion and Royal Bank (both of Canada) as well as Nomura (of Japan) join the primary bond dealer ranks. This road leads to staggering hidden monetization of USTreasurys and outright auction failures, BOTH, with severe damage done to the USDollar confidence and reputation.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12573.html

Not sure how accurate it is or exactly what everything means in the quote but I wouldn't mind hearing some opinions on it.

trv
Aug21-09, 09:08 PM
I'll give it a go but let me say firstly I'm just doing it so that hopefully someone corrects me and I learn from it rather than any real understanding.

Essentially what it says is that while at first glance auctions of bonds seem to be going succesfully it not really true. Auctions actually aren't going to well hence the need to schedule them more frequently than usual. One might point out that the bid/cover ratio is quite good at 1.92 but in fact its only 0.92 since inevitably the first bid is placed by the bank itself through a proxy.

wildman
Aug21-09, 11:40 PM
In words that I can understand: Less and less successful each day....