Voter Turnout Predictions

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The upcoming US presidential election will probably be one of the most bitterly fought-over and polarizing elections in recent US history. This year, there seems to be a lot more young people (as well as more people in general) getting involved. This young voter irregularity is probably screwing up current national and state-by-state polling, as the good people at www.electoral-vote.com have pointed out. (Because many young people don’t get polled or polled incorrectly in phone polling for reasons like: cell phones are often not called, college students living away etc.)

Anyway, this year’s voter turnout will likely be much higher than in recent previous elections.
Here’s a quick national tally of the last eleven presidential election’s voter turnout of the voting age population (not just registered voters!):

2000 - 51.3%
1996 - 49.08%
1992 - 55.23%
1988 - 50.15%
1984 - 53.11%
1980 - 52.56%
1976 - 53.55%
1972 - 55.21%
1968 - 60.84%
1964 - 61.92%
1960 - 62.77%

( Source: http://www.fec.gov/elections.html )

So what do you think this year’s voter turnout will be? *Public Poll

I’m going to guess a little less than 60%, so between 57.5% and 60%. While I do believe there will be a sharp increase in the voter turnout, there are probably still a lot of people who don’t trust either candidate and will abstain from voting.

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Anyone care to explain their votes?
Bystander: Why do you think it will be such a low turnout?

[selfAdjoint]

I just voted for the 47% level. This is because I am getting the sense that a lot of voters are fed up with Bush but don't really want to vote for Kerry either. I figure they'll just stay home.

[The_Professional]

45.0% to 47.5%

As much as I'd like to vote, I can't and even if I can vote I don't feel strongly to either candidate like most people.

[Bystander]

Who's to vote for? GWB? Yawn. JK? 'Nother "downeast" slimeball insurance salesman. Dixie might get out the vote against a carpetbagging Yankee, but this is about the dullest match since the Stevenson-Eisenhower bouts, and neither candidate has anything like the popularity Ike had --- people actually felt like taking the time to go out and vote for the man. It' s got a good chance of setting a record low turnout.

[BobG]

52-55%.

It's got two things going for it that push it up against the overall trend. It's a close election and there's issues people feel strongly about (economy/jobs & terrorism/Iraq).

The overall downward trend is frustrating, though. Does the steadily decreasing quality of candidates causes cynicism and apathy or does increased media scrutiny just make today's candidates look smaller than they used to.

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A bit of an update:
Early voting stations across the country are reporting huge lines with waiting time times to vote in some places as long as 3 hrs. I guess it's much more than people expected.

I still think that the voter turnout on this one is going to be huge.

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Record voter turnout is being reported around the country http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/11/02/nm.early.voting/index.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6384701/
Last chance to get in on the poll! :p

[Gokul43201]

A reporter from Philadelphia just said that the turnout in PA is expected to match or beat the 1960 numbers.

[Gokul43201]

Nationwide turnout is expected to be a little over 120 million !!

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http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/11/03/voter.turnout.ap/index.html
Voter turnout was about 114 million, but with absentee and provisional ballots it was about 120 million, which means that a little under 60% of eligable voters voted. Easily highest voter turnout since 1968. Thanks for voting.