View Full Version : a Dice is rolled til we get two 6
we roll a fair dice until we get a 6 twice in arrow
what is the expectation of numbers of rolls we have to through the dice until we get 6 twice in arrow ?
hint : it's not 36
I'll appreciate it if you help me with this question.
Thanks
CRGreathouse
Dec7-10, 06:19 PM
We roll a fair die until we get a 6 twice in a row. What is the expected numbers of rolls until we get 6 twice in a row? Hint: it's not 36.
I'd appreciate it if you helped me with this question.
Thanks.
On the first roll, we don't have a chance to make a double 6.
On the second roll, we can be in two cases: either the last roll was a 6, in which case we have a 1/6 chance of ending, or the last roll was not, in which case we are in the first case.
So let E be the expected number of rolls in the first case and S be the expected number of rolls in the second case. E = 1/6 * S + 5/6 * E + 1, since it takes one turn and has the specified probabilities of transitioning. This simplifies to E = S + 6.
In the second case we have S = 5/6 * E + 1, since there's a 1/6 chance of being done and a 5/6 chance of looping back, plus the turn to do either.
Now you have two equations in two variables; just solve for E.
Thanks a lot ! very helpful, and good explanation ;)
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